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<< >> English 中文 Русский 한국어 日本語 Español Français [2016-01-19 03:12:58] tscha : gaoMex: one possibility would be to widen the spread on the upside [2016-01-19 03:13:02] rapidtrades : plus intra-day you have a lot of swings [2016-01-19 03:13:19] gaoMex : It happens, like Nov 2013. [2016-01-19 03:13:54] rapidtrades : there were large down moves there....close to 50% on some exchanges [2016-01-19 03:13:58] gaoMex : tscha: That will be hedging, no? [2016-01-19 03:14:13] tscha : gaoMex: no [2016-01-19 03:14:41] tscha : gaoMex: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hedge.asp [2016-01-19 03:14:51] rapidtrades : gaoMex: u can't ''hedge'' here...if u go long and short u'll be netted out [2016-01-19 03:15:29] gaoMex : tscha: What's the point of widening the spread on the upside then? [2016-01-19 03:15:44] gaoMex : It's just a matter of time before the price caught up [2016-01-19 03:15:57] rapidtrades : ....to capture more of the upside? minimize the ask fills etc [2016-01-19 03:16:30] gaoMex : If your widen the spread too much, the offer will not be hit anyway [2016-01-19 03:16:36] rapidtrades : gaoMex: price very rarely moves straight up..if it did, I'll be a millionaire 10 times over [2016-01-19 03:16:52] lockhedge : the price is already a prediction of the market of the price, nobody can time the market, even if it went upside the last 10 days [2016-01-19 03:16:56] rapidtrades : gaoMex: exactly...that's partially the point [2016-01-19 03:17:34] gaoMex : lockhedge: Fair point. [2016-01-19 03:18:03] gaoMex : I just felt that the risk for mm is quite substantial [2016-01-19 03:18:12] tscha : gaoMex: well, you were talking about how to avoid the danger of an uptrend. So if you already have a short position and the price keeps moving and you don't want to increase your position/exposure, you could just quote your offers at a higher price so people either 1) don't hit them or 2) hit them with a premium. [2016-01-19 03:18:24] tscha : gaoMex: no it's not [2016-01-19 03:18:37] rapidtrades : gaoMex: don't worry about it [2016-01-19 03:18:52] tscha : lift* btw [2016-01-19 03:19:40] rapidtrades : do ur bots take into account the premium or discount [2016-01-19 03:19:53] lockhedge : tscha: if you add a premium after an uptrend, you are predicting the future based on the past. i'd say that's not market making, but trend following [2016-01-19 03:20:18] tscha : lockhedge: I just want to limit my exposure by keeping my position low [2016-01-19 03:21:06] tscha : If an already large position get's further increased, I will want to get compensated for it. Hence the premium. [2016-01-19 03:21:34] tscha : rapidtrades: Every bot is different. But I think most do. [2016-01-19 03:22:08] micmix : @sleger, not participating in the discussion? Would be interesting to know if I'm right by calling your algo more of a predictive algo than regular MM. [2016-01-19 03:22:47] micmix : you don't have to answer of course :-) [2016-01-19 03:23:44] tscha : "nobody can time the market" btw, I doubt that that's the case for bitcoin markets :D [2016-01-19 03:24:39] lockhedge : tscha: do you mean a price change b/c of position accumulation, based on the code? or are you manually adding a premium in an uptrend? [2016-01-19 03:25:06] tscha : lockhedge: position accumulation [2016-01-19 03:25:29] tscha : I don't want to have too large positions on my bot, since it's hard to get rid of them in emergency [2016-01-19 03:28:11] lockhedge : tscha: ok, doing that as well, there is "fill premium" after a bid gets hit for the next bid that is being placed, but a fixed position limit after x filled bits with a hardcoded max. position premium) [2016-01-19 03:28:52] tscha : lockhedge: are you from the cs field or finance field? [2016-01-19 03:29:58] micmix : lockhedge: that's a common way to do inventory control. you might want to try quadratic inventory control function, sometimes it works better for neutral MM [2016-01-19 03:29:59] tscha : i'm asking because I see all the papers you are sharing :D however you like coding too so I am not sure [2016-01-19 03:30:31] rapidtrades : I haven't seeen a siingle paper posted here [2016-01-19 03:30:43] rapidtrades : or any useful link tbh [2016-01-19 03:30:49] tscha : not here, on twitter [2016-01-19 03:37:15] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 100 @ 381.81 [2016-01-19 03:37:48] rapidtrades : does anyone have any idea why sleger keeps buying the LIQs [2016-01-19 03:40:24] micmix : short answer: to make money :-) long answer: liq orders usually provide a good opportunity to reduce your large position with minimal slippage or enter a position at favorable price [2016-01-19 03:40:56] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 50 @ 381.43 [2016-01-19 03:41:15] micmix : ^^ not small ones like this [2016-01-19 03:41:17] lockhedge : tscha: i'm coding (mainly for fun) since i'm 8 then mainly studied social systems and worked in public affairs and politics (as well on financial regulation), maybe "systems theoretic background" would fit most ;) [2016-01-19 03:41:42] rapidtrades : micmix: makes sense...but the way he does it, he seemed to be buying/selling indiscriminately [2016-01-19 03:41:56] tscha : lockhedge: sounds pretty cool [2016-01-19 03:42:14] micmix : rapidtrades: it just looks that way to others :-) [2016-01-19 03:43:43] micmix : like if you look at my bot on 24H it just buys and sells random sizes all the time but there is a system, I can assure you ;-) [2016-01-19 03:44:12] rapidtrades : is the system ''lose money as soon as possible'' [2016-01-19 03:44:27] tscha : micmix: btw, your bot doing fine? [2016-01-19 03:44:50] micmix : rapidtrades: pretty much [2016-01-19 03:45:03] rapidtrades : :) [2016-01-19 03:46:19] micmix : tscha: yeah, doing OK. lost 0.5 coin on XBTM16 bc I forgot to uncheck 'isolate margin' :-) [2016-01-19 03:46:54] rapidtrades : yeah that shit's on my default [2016-01-19 03:47:04] rapidtrades : if u haven't traded a particular contract [2016-01-19 03:47:07] tscha : micmix: happened to me too.. you are not alone :D [2016-01-19 03:47:26] rapidtrades : u need to uncheck it on every new contract...i shouldn't be on my default [2016-01-19 03:47:27] micmix : it's not visible on my screen and I assumed I already did that bc I always do that right away [2016-01-19 03:47:51] salcon : micmix: это не твой бот случайно по 6000 ордера тусует? [2016-01-19 03:47:54] lockhedge : micmix: thanks for pointing to *quadratic inventory control*, was already searching for something similar, my bot currently has a dynamic (within a hardcoded range) fill premium/discount based on spreads of different markets (e.g. BitMEX vs. Bitfinex premium) [2016-01-19 03:48:33] micmix : salcon: net, moi sovsem malen'kii :-) [2016-01-19 03:49:06] tscha : well, I'm off guys, cya [2016-01-19 03:49:09] salcon : micmix: дастал этот чувак. туда-сюда туда-сюда [2016-01-19 03:49:23] micmix : bye tscha [2016-01-19 03:49:26] rapidtrades : RUSSIAN DETECTED, INVASION IMMINENT [2016-01-19 03:50:02] micmix : salcon: bez nego nikto by tut ne torgoval, eto glavnyi market maker [2016-01-19 03:50:11] rapidtrades : tscha: buy turn off ur bot before u go [2016-01-19 03:50:23] lockhedge : guess i should sleep a bit as well, it's 04:49 here :( see you guys [2016-01-19 03:50:46] micmix : rapidtrades: well we've got one russian guy, at least I get to practice my russian, it's getting very rusty :-) [2016-01-19 03:50:54] tscha : rapidtrades: my bot runs in mini-mode since saturday since I detected a problem and have no time to fix it [2016-01-19 03:50:55] tscha : n8n8 [2016-01-19 03:51:25] micmix : bye lockhedge [2016-01-19 03:51:28] rapidtrades : dam ur bot got wrecked by that downmove [2016-01-19 03:52:32] salcon : micmix: по моему он тупо коридор держит [2016-01-19 03:53:34] rapidtrades : GUYS THEY'RE GONNA TAKE SOME CORRIDOR STAY VIGILANT [2016-01-19 03:55:03] salcon : rapidtrades: how old are you? acting like a child. [2016-01-19 03:59:26] rapidtrades : DENY ALL TOURIST VISAS [2016-01-19 06:24:27] zanza : Bitcoin has be confused now [2016-01-19 06:24:33] zanza : has me confused [2016-01-19 08:27:14] rapidtrades : zanza: yeah just flat right now [2016-01-19 08:36:29] rapidtrades : Euro up on risk-on,earlier up on risk-off....nothing can stop this shitcurrency [2016-01-19 08:46:14] zanza : RUB got demolished [2016-01-19 08:46:58] rapidtrades : yeah :) it's up a lot today though :( [2016-01-19 08:47:49] rapidtrades : part of the risk-on move...oil&stocks up as well [2016-01-19 09:11:47] Akaiapc40 : morning all....read all the discussion....so basically you run your own write bot? [2016-01-19 09:26:52] rapidtrades : I think none of the bot runners are here atm [2016-01-19 09:36:38] lockhedge : Akaiapc40: good morning, i started with an old version of this open source code written by @BitMEX_Sam https://github.com/BitMEX/market-maker added a reference price and a mechanism for price adjustment based on position accumulation [2016-01-19 09:37:44] lockhedge : the code for my reference price is open source as well https://robotfinance.org/bix/ will open source my mm bot at some stage as well [2016-01-19 09:43:17] Akaiapc40 : lockhedge: thanks man, hugely appreciated! [2016-01-19 09:43:26] rapidtrades : thanks..if I ever start coding, I'll take a look at that @lockhedge [2016-01-19 09:45:19] micmix : lockhedge: you are up already! you need more sleep, looks like you slept less than 5 hours! [2016-01-19 09:49:20] lockhedge : micmix: completely agree [2016-01-19 09:50:15] lockhedge : micmix: and you are still up or even slept less than me? [2016-01-19 09:51:27] micmix : lockhedge: I am a bit older now and I worry about everyone's health :-) I'm going to bed very soon. I'm in Canada and it's middle of the night [2016-01-19 10:30:16] tscha : hahaha I knew you were Canadian.. friendliest people in the world [2016-01-19 10:31:22] tscha : lockhedge: morning :D [2016-01-19 10:47:31] lockhedge : tscha: morning, interesting discount 1h before settlement [2016-01-19 10:51:59] rapidtrades : idiots being idiots, nothing interesting about it [2016-01-19 10:58:36] arbitrage001 : is the discount higher than settlement fee? [2016-01-19 10:59:08] rapidtrades : no? [2016-01-19 11:01:10] arbitrage001 : cheap way to close the position then [2016-01-19 11:57:47] Akaiapc40 : Nice squeeze [2016-01-19 13:26:13] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 45 @ 385.68 [2016-01-19 13:27:31] Akaiapc40 : up! [2016-01-19 15:33:36] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 160 @ 384.38 [2016-01-19 15:35:37] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 600 @ 383.30 [2016-01-19 15:35:57] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT7D`: Sell 2800 @ 382.14 [2016-01-19 15:37:21] Swedishnut : heyas whats the rub today? [2016-01-19 16:36:38] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 1637 @ 381.09 [2016-01-19 16:36:58] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT7D`: Sell 100 @ 379.65 [2016-01-19 16:37:18] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT7D`: Sell 8500 @ 379.43 [2016-01-19 16:40:21] rapidtrades : oh ffs...just crash already u stupid stupid coin [2016-01-19 18:02:41] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 200 @ 378.13 [2016-01-19 18:03:01] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT7D`: Sell 2999 @ 377.74 [2016-01-19 18:11:42] zanza : Swedishnut: 1 Euro equals 85.93 Russian Ruble [2016-01-19 18:11:54] zanza : I think it may be all time low against EURO [2016-01-19 18:14:18] Swedishnut : ahh wow [2016-01-19 18:14:49] Akaiapc40 : worthless [2016-01-19 18:14:57] rapidtrades : zanza: nah it hit 100 during the panic last December [2016-01-19 18:14:59] rapidtrades : 2014 [2016-01-19 18:15:23] rapidtrades : it doesn't show up on all charts cos it was a mess to trade...no quotes for hours [2016-01-19 18:16:53] rapidtrades : crashed close to 30% on December 16th [2016-01-19 18:21:56] rapidtrades : sry it was 100 against the dollar [2016-01-19 18:22:31] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 300 @ 379.58 [2016-01-19 18:33:39] jung1 : sleger: maybe I was right with that 350 bet [2016-01-19 18:34:00] sleger : well but you dont want to put your money where your mouth is [2016-01-19 18:34:01] rapidtrades : loool [2016-01-19 18:34:15] sleger : and anyways you said yesterday you thought it was going higher after all, so you were just wrong twice so far [2016-01-19 18:34:19] jung1 : I can bet with market [2016-01-19 18:34:40] rapidtrades : still time to bet boys! we're almost half way between 350 and 400 [2016-01-19 18:34:47] jung1 : or I want to force trollbox to buy my orders [2016-01-19 18:36:00] jung1 : its deeper than you think sleger [2016-01-19 18:36:00] jung1 : hehe [2016-01-19 18:37:14] jung1 : but if we will hit 350 I will not be mad at all [2016-01-19 18:40:12] habibi : jung1: its still in chopping zone [2016-01-19 18:40:30] habibi : we have been at 2510, so far didnt touch it today [2016-01-19 18:40:33] habibi : but i hope we will :) [2016-01-19 18:40:44] jung1 : so you are long [2016-01-19 18:40:54] habibi : i am just talking about facts [2016-01-19 18:40:59] habibi : no about my position lol [2016-01-19 19:31:13] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT7D`: Sell 1200 @ 375.80 [2016-01-19 19:39:03] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 200 @ 379.15 [2016-01-19 19:47:14] DareDevil : Why is there so much movement in the orderbook on XBT24H and almost no recent trades? [2016-01-19 19:49:57] habibi : DareDevil: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFQCYpIHLNQ [2016-01-19 19:50:58] DareDevil : lol, not but for real, must be a bot repositioning all the time? [2016-01-19 19:51:20] habibi : bots/people watching finex/china and taking off orders and again on [2016-01-19 19:55:17] DareDevil : ok, thanks for the answer :-) [2016-01-19 20:01:44] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 12386 @ 379.26 [2016-01-19 20:01:44] REKT : Have a bowl of chop-chop suey! [2016-01-19 20:04:54] Akaiapc40 : ouch! [2016-01-19 20:31:21] djuan : back up to 388 and down? or back up to 388 and break through resistance? [2016-01-19 20:40:00] rapidtrades : theres nothing at 388 [2016-01-19 20:43:45] djuan : 386 [2016-01-19 22:18:24] zanza : http://40.media.tumblr.com/bf73e1a7389525d60fedc8a9fe31cf04/tumblr_o0nai6Od7i1ty8nfzo1_500.jpg [2016-01-19 22:18:28] zanza : ^ offensive [2016-01-19 22:20:17] thehawthorne : even more offensive if you engage on women against their will at public places [2016-01-19 22:20:25] thehawthorne : plus robbing them [2016-01-19 22:21:09] thehawthorne : does not depend where those people were from, they just need to be punished for this kind of behavior [2016-01-19 22:51:33] justinlooking : is there only one alert key? [2016-01-19 22:51:35] justinlooking : https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/47c5ed19f3ba2a5f91f773ce7ff485f8574b570b/src/chainparams.cpp#L93 [2016-01-19 22:53:24] rapidtrades : my alerts here don't work [2016-01-19 23:04:59] zanza : I think there are 3 alert keys [2016-01-19 23:07:12] rapidtrades : stocks&oil look like preparing for new dive [2016-01-19 23:09:43] tscha : justinlooking: there are three alert keys... 1) satoshi 2) gavin and.... 3) theymos <.< [2016-01-19 23:10:38] justinlooking : hmm i think i have determined there is one. and that at leaast people know the key [2016-01-19 23:13:55] tscha : justinlooking: maybe it's one key and these three people have access to it, could be, dunno [2016-01-19 23:16:51] rapidtrades : wtf are u talking bout [2016-01-19 23:17:07] rapidtrades : SHOULD I SELL ALL MY BITCOIN [2016-01-19 23:17:48] zanza : sell for what? [2016-01-19 23:17:55] rapidtrades : USD [2016-01-19 23:18:01] rapidtrades : cold hard cash [2016-01-19 23:18:21] zanza : if you do, I suggest you buy a nice set of knee pads and head over to your nearest federal reserve [2016-01-19 23:18:23] justinlooking : kindling [2016-01-19 23:18:29] zanza : and get to wo [2016-01-19 23:24:13] zanza : $28 oil [2016-01-19 23:28:02] rapidtrades : yeah s&p and oil keep trading near those lows....not good [2016-01-19 23:40:08] rapidtrades : wtf...did anyone else get spammed on reddit with Etherium garbage? [2016-01-20 00:04:01] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 4 @ 376.39 :punch: :whale: [2016-01-20 00:05:31] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 2000 @ 376.02 [2016-01-20 00:13:59] meli : hello trolls i am new here [2016-01-20 00:18:33] zanza : hello meli. Nice to meet you, our leader is tscha [2016-01-20 00:18:43] zanza : second in command is rapidtrades [2016-01-20 00:20:37] tscha : Yes I am Austrian, but that doesn't mean I am "the leader" [2016-01-20 00:21:38] tscha : was just about to go to bed, cya guys and welcome meli [2016-01-20 00:26:18] lockhedge : tscha: i'm hopefully the only one who understood that this joke was not about Austrian economics ;) [2016-01-20 00:26:49] tscha : lockhedge: :D [2016-01-20 00:27:00] tscha : you should go to bed too, you only slept 5 hours last night [2016-01-20 00:28:12] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 108 @ 374.83 [2016-01-20 00:28:12] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBTH16`: Sell 5 @ 431.64 [2016-01-20 00:29:02] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBTH16`: Sell 375 @ 430.33 [2016-01-20 00:31:01] lockhedge : tscha: had two extra hours sleep in the afternoon and no meetings tomorrow morning, so mum says i can stay up longer than you today :P [2016-01-20 00:32:14] lockhedge : but would be really nice to have less Hitler jokes in this trollbox... [2016-01-20 00:51:17] lockhedge : very interesting proposal for Bitcoin Classic: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin_Classic/comments/41j49i/proposals_predictable_release_schedule_and/ [2016-01-20 00:51:32] lockhedge : *Predictable Release Schedule and Planned Obsolescence to force users to upgrade and facilitate Clean Forks* [2016-01-20 01:02:41] rapidtrades : fucking mm bot [2016-01-20 01:02:55] rapidtrades : I should've used a market order [2016-01-20 01:03:36] rapidtrades : wating my time with this bs [2016-01-20 01:17:52] STRML : Nice link lockhedge [2016-01-20 01:18:06] STRML : Opens up some interesting possibilities, and really begs the question: what do we want Bitcoin to be? [2016-01-20 01:18:45] STRML : rapidtrades: I think everyone got the ethereum spam, seems like a transparent effort to pump the price [2016-01-20 01:18:51] STRML : Been a lot of ETH action on polo [2016-01-20 01:27:18] STRML : Enjoying your Twitter lockhedge, hopefully will be in Wien sometime this summer when we make a trip to Krakow - will keep in touch [2016-01-20 01:42:43] lockhedge : STRML: would be great to have a drink in Vienna / re: what bitcoin should be; it seems to proof now that it's an open and fast learning system. do you have any guess on a schedule for the fork to Classic? [2016-01-20 01:51:24] rapidtrades : Bernanke calls the top of the Dollar rally [2016-01-20 01:51:31] zanza : ? [2016-01-20 01:52:15] rapidtrades : http://news.forexlive.com/!/bernanke-says-usd-20160119 [2016-01-20 01:52:34] lockhedge : rapidtrades: re: bots - that's the paradox thing about inventory management of mm bots. my bot is currently long, that's why it quotes with a negative premium. when it is short, there will be a positive premium [2016-01-20 01:52:52] rapidtrades : cool got it [2016-01-20 01:53:32] rapidtrades : it's just frustrating to keep raising ur bid and never get filled...can't compete with these fu))ckers [2016-01-20 01:58:38] micmix : lockhedge: apparently core devs are considering changing PoW algorithm to 'solve' mining centralization problem: https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/41aocn/httpsbitcoinorgenbitcoincorecapacityincreases_why/cz0z9ym [2016-01-20 01:59:10] rapidtrades : well that's gonna fuck chinese miners... [2016-01-20 01:59:21] rapidtrades : can't see them going down without a fight [2016-01-20 02:00:46] micmix : well it will be a new litecoin coming from bitcoin core devs [2016-01-20 02:01:47] rapidtrades : how likely is that tho [2016-01-20 02:02:56] micmix : I really hope they are not going to do that, and we will have 2 compatible implementation of the bitcoin protocol in the end [2016-01-20 02:05:08] rapidtrades : yeah we'll definetely get two chains if they try that [2016-01-20 02:06:01] rapidtrades : I don't get this stupid debate....we're not close to hitting that 1mb limit [2016-01-20 02:06:16] rapidtrades : seems like needless drama [2016-01-20 02:07:48] rapidtrades : maybe they're thinking price isn't recovering let's change the code a bit and hope we'll get a better bitcoin [2016-01-20 02:16:30] habibi : rapidtrades: u sure about that? [2016-01-20 02:18:19] rapidtrades : shut up habibi [2016-01-20 02:20:05] habibi : eh wanted to be polite but it doesnt work with a spoiled kids like u. [2016-01-20 02:20:53] habibi : check once again ur info about size of blocks we are getting in recent weeks. and mempool statistics as well [2016-01-20 02:28:31] lockhedge : micmix: if there is a split, let's say 90% (Classic) and 10% (Core), could miners then just switch the software from time to time and mine (maybe destroy?) this Corechain when Blockchain mining is currently not profitable with their hardware? [2016-01-20 02:31:46] micmix : lockhedge: there are two cases: 1) core stays on SHA256, same as classic and 2) core switches to Keccak as PoW [2016-01-20 02:32:49] micmix : in case 2 we basically have a new altcoin. SHA-256 mining hardware doesn't work, we'll have GPU mining again [2016-01-20 02:34:23] micmix : case 1 is more interesting. let say 10% mining power stays on core. before the difficulty is adjusted, block times will increase 10x, to 100 minutes [2016-01-20 02:34:49] micmix : transaction confirmations will take 10 times longer [2016-01-20 02:35:08] rapidtrades : going to bed...f bots die die die [2016-01-20 02:36:05] micmix : difficulty is adjusted every 2016 blocks but with 10% of mining power it will take 10 times longer to adjust the difficulty [2016-01-20 02:37:10] sleger : 7 days on average [2016-01-20 02:37:29] sleger : so with 10% about 70 days... [2016-01-20 02:37:43] lockhedge : rapidtrades: if it helps to sleep better: my bot is making losses as well today [2016-01-20 02:38:24] micmix : yep, no miner will wait 70-80 days [2016-01-20 02:39:13] micmix : basically minority chain dies waiting for diff adjustment [2016-01-20 02:39:27] micmix : the worst case scenario is nearly equal split [2016-01-20 02:40:26] lockhedge : micmix: seems that Core has to change PoW to protect against "hostile takeover" - this also means: they will never ever get 10% [2016-01-20 02:42:33] micmix : if they change PoW they will lose all network security provided by the current mining hardware [2016-01-20 02:44:47] micmix : they will have to bootstrap mining from zero, same as any altcoin launch [2016-01-20 02:48:39] kingscrown : https://twitter.com/kingscrownBTC/status/689597233738678272 [2016-01-20 02:51:12] lockhedge : if they stay on SHA256, Bitcoin miners could just absorb Corecoin as soon as the capacity of their unprofitable hardware is bigger than Corecoin's capacity [2016-01-20 02:51:57] lockhedge : so there seems to be no way for a split. just Bitcoin and a maybe new altcoin. [2016-01-20 02:52:40] lockhedge : technically it's still a split, but it's not significant for Bitcoin [2016-01-20 03:02:18] lockhedge : so it seems that we are with more than 99% probability in a better situation today than before Mike Hearn's blog post. [2016-01-20 03:39:36] micmix : lockhedge: I was making dinner and thought about it a bit more [2016-01-20 03:39:57] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 38533 @ 377.59 **MEGA-REKT** :boom: [2016-01-20 03:40:37] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 70 @ 377.93 [2016-01-20 03:41:02] micmix : we have 2 camps with incompatible answers to the philosophical question 'what is bitcoin' [2016-01-20 03:41:15] sleger : price is going up [2016-01-20 03:44:14] micmix : core camp thinks that bitcoin is all blockchain parameters in the code and changing anything will make an altcoin, not bitcoin. therefore 'no hard forks ever' stance. for them changing blocksize is similar to changing max coin supply - should never happen [2016-01-20 03:45:21] micmix : second camp (classic) thinks that bitcoin is whatever majority of bitcoin users decide to call 'bitcoin', doesn't matter that it requires changing blockchain parameters [2016-01-20 03:46:42] micmix : you can trace the rift between two groups all the way back to bitcointalk discussions in 2012-2013 [2016-01-20 03:48:04] micmix : but with majority of mining power going to classic, core vision of bitcoin cannot survive [2016-01-20 03:49:54] micmix : in order for 'corecoin' to survive, they will have to either accept hard fork to 2MB and join classic, or change major blockchain parameters like PoW function or the way difficulty is adjusted (again, hard fork) [2016-01-20 03:54:00] micmix : the only way to keep bitcoin without hard fork is to convince at least 25% of mining power to stay on 1MB blocks [2016-01-20 03:55:05] lockhedge : micmix: good analysis, you just register on medium and copy/paste it [2016-01-20 03:56:36] lockhedge : just doubt that 25% initial mining power could be enough, still too much risk (hostile takeover) to invest in more mining power - but it will have negative effects on Bitcoin as well if Core gets 25% [2016-01-20 04:06:18] lockhedge : only two chances left for camp 1: get >25% and grow faster than the bigger blockchain or hope that satoshi will convince camp 2 to stay on core, would say that's less than 99% chance for camp1 [2016-01-20 04:11:14] zanza : $27 oil coming [2016-01-20 04:17:23] micmix : lockhedge: well yes, the only way for core is to keep more than 25% of mining power, therefore preventing activation of 2MB blocks in classic. the activation threshold for 2MB blocks in classic is 75% of mining power [2016-01-20 04:19:43] micmix : in any case split in 2 coins not good for the price. basically coin supply is doubled bc you can spend all your coins twice, once on core chain and once on classic chain. no way coins on both chains will keep their current value [2016-01-20 04:22:28] micmix : I just hope that the cooler heads prevail and the split will be avoided altogether [2016-01-20 04:25:27] lockhedge : micmix: technically there will be a split but it will be very probably only a handful people [2016-01-20 04:26:27] lockhedge : micmix: when is the deadline for the 75% threshold? [2016-01-20 04:27:16] micmix : yeah, it's not a problem if it's only a handful of people without any major mining power. their coin will not work at all, will take way too long to confirm transactions [2016-01-20 04:27:56] micmix : I'm not sure the deadline is decided at this point, proposal was March I think [2016-01-20 04:28:56] micmix : with grace period of several weeks before any blocks over 2mb can be mined [2016-01-20 04:36:47] micmix : sorry, any blocks over 1mb [2016-01-20 04:39:40] lockhedge : probably a huge discount on H16 if there is an agreement on a March 1 deadline [2016-01-20 04:40:09] laisee : yes, resolving the block size issue should cause price to go up. [2016-01-20 04:51:03] micmix : ok, did some reading, looks like end of March is more realistic [2016-01-20 04:51:48] micmix : I mean first large block by end of March [2016-01-20 04:55:39] lockhedge : as a guy who worked in PR the most interesting question is: when will the news agencies quote Gavin Andresen saying "Bitcoin is now even stronger than before Mike left", this mass media event will most probably happen when the threshold is reached [2016-01-20 04:56:58] micmix : Release Plan Our initial beta/test release will be based on bitcoin-core 0.11.2. It will have a 2MB block size limit. The source code will be made available in the last week of January. Binaries for Linux, Windows and Mac will follow soon after. Work on 0.12 will start after the 0.11.2 release. We are planning to disable opt-in RBF. This decision is based on community feedback (miners included). The activation threshold % and earliest activation date are being discussed with the community and will be announced next week. [2016-01-20 05:00:38] lockhedge : thanks micmix [2016-01-20 05:00:44] rapidtrades : markets continue their meltdown...as expected [2016-01-20 05:02:54] micmix : if they keep suggested 750/1000 blocks threshold, it will take about a week for miners to vote. so software release end of Jan., 1-2 weeks to update miner noders, 1 week to vote. we can be done even before March 1. buy H16 people! :-) [2016-01-20 05:03:35] rapidtrades : oil below $28 [2016-01-20 05:06:39] rapidtrades : and another ''pro'' trader saying it wouldn't take much to see a pop higher [2016-01-20 05:14:33] zanza : I heard some predictions for 10-15$ oil [2016-01-20 05:15:22] rapidtrades : I was gonna troll tradingview '''traders'' but you need a phone number to chat [2016-01-20 05:15:29] rapidtrades : wtf lol lmao f that shit [2016-01-20 05:15:49] zanza : u can use free throwaway phones [2016-01-20 05:15:51] rapidtrades : companies are getting f ballsy with this shit [2016-01-20 05:16:04] rapidtrades : zanza: teach me [2016-01-20 05:16:27] zanza : google "free sms verification" [2016-01-20 05:16:31] zanza : then your country [2016-01-20 05:16:48] zanza : and you can receive a SMS confirmation to verify accounts [2016-01-20 05:17:00] rapidtrades : I have few prepaid numbers cos I travel a lot but can't be bothered to change sim...don't want to chat as bad [2016-01-20 05:17:41] rapidtrades : zanza: tnx for tehe tip tho [2016-01-20 05:17:59] zanza : :) [2016-01-20 05:36:37] rapidtrades : bloomberg thinks its more important to air its shity interview ith Sean Penn then cover markets atm [2016-01-20 06:30:55] zanza : so if Core changes the POW algo to screw over ASIC miners, there could be some fireworks [2016-01-20 06:31:09] zanza : "scorched earth" [2016-01-20 08:14:56] rapidtrades : s&p still looking super weak [2016-01-20 08:15:02] rapidtrades : selling prolly not done [2016-01-20 10:02:22] laisee : zanza: > Core is facing Zugzwang re Bitcoin network. [2016-01-20 10:23:07] zanza : very few people are opposed to biggger blocks [2016-01-20 10:26:11] micmix : zanza: well if you read r/bitcoin many people think that it's the end of the world as we know it :-) [2016-01-20 10:34:57] laisee : end of some peoples 'world', i guess [2016-01-20 10:35:48] laisee : changing POW algo as a last resort seems like madness. [2016-01-20 11:49:31] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT7D`: Buy 2900 @ 381.98 [2016-01-20 11:50:37] BitMEX_Arthur : https://blog.bitmex.com/bitmex-arbitrage-lesson-3-webinar/ [2016-01-20 11:50:42] BitMEX_Arthur : More details for tomorrow's webinar [2016-01-20 12:43:03] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT7D`: Buy 3 @ 382.85 :punch: :whale: [2016-01-20 12:49:46] Samirum : Hahahahaha [2016-01-20 12:49:53] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 6765 @ 386.07 [2016-01-20 12:50:03] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 100 @ 387.42 [2016-01-20 12:51:02] macios15 : rekt incoming [2016-01-20 12:51:05] macios15 : damn :D [2016-01-20 12:51:12] macios15 : holy fuck :D [2016-01-20 12:52:03] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBTH16`: Buy 250 @ 442.90 [2016-01-20 12:52:59] laisee : BitMEX_Arthur: > did bitmex engineer a pump to boost interest in webinar tomorrow? [2016-01-20 12:53:23] Akaiapc40 : 400? [2016-01-20 12:54:22] sleger : any news ? [2016-01-20 12:56:21] sleger : I said 9 hours ago : "sleger : price is going up" [2016-01-20 12:57:12] Akaiapc40 : and then a big coming down? [2016-01-20 12:58:27] j8 : http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/3008070/index.html ? [2016-01-20 12:59:30] sleger : j8: thanks [2016-01-20 12:59:53] j8 : no prob [2016-01-20 13:06:03] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 200 @ 397.84 [2016-01-20 13:07:28] justinlooking : did not expect this... where did i put my roflcopter [2016-01-20 13:14:04] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT7D`: Buy 100 @ 399.05 [2016-01-20 13:21:04] bondi : Correct me if I'm wrong, but in 'Hedging Example 2', isn't it supposed to be 'above' instead of 'below'? https://www.bitmex.com/app/lesson4 [2016-01-20 13:21:04] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 735 @ 396.02 [2016-01-20 13:21:17] rapidtrades : all this pumping and still discount on futures everywhere [2016-01-20 13:22:03] rapidtrades : did idiots rly buy on that news that China is exploring a crypto-currency? god dam chinese ppl are stupid [2016-01-20 13:22:28] rapidtrades : guess it's no wonder they pumped and dumped their own stock market [2016-01-20 13:24:12] rapidtrades : lol already 20% DPE [2016-01-20 13:25:01] JDUB99 : then it disappears? [2016-01-20 13:25:41] rapidtrades : wtf mate like literally wtf [2016-01-20 13:26:00] thehawthorne : hehe [2016-01-20 13:26:03] thehawthorne : messy shit [2016-01-20 13:29:48] sleger : rapidtrades: where do you see 20% dpe ? [2016-01-20 13:31:11] thehawthorne : XBT24H [2016-01-20 13:31:14] j8 : there was briefly 20% on the daily, there was a liquidation for 7000 with only 35000 open interest [2016-01-20 13:31:19] BitMEX_Wally : That order was closed out [2016-01-20 13:31:32] rapidtrades : no it wasn't [2016-01-20 13:31:51] BitMEX_Wally : I assure you it was [2016-01-20 13:32:12] rapidtrades : it showed up in the API until 2 mins ago [2016-01-20 13:32:18] justinlooking : 13:20:43 utc [2016-01-20 13:32:27] j8 : 396.23 probably, it got moved up a lot [2016-01-20 13:32:31] BitMEX_Wally : Yes [2016-01-20 13:32:34] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 3 @ 396.92 :punch: :whale: [2016-01-20 13:33:12] habibi : yep saw that as well [2016-01-20 13:33:14] rapidtrades : matt on bloomberg: ''I mean oil it's not gonna fall much further then 27? [2016-01-20 13:33:44] rapidtrades : and there go the calls for anotehr sharp rally in oil...this is hilarious [2016-01-20 13:34:45] rapidtrades : lol@CEO of paypal...looks like a homeless man [2016-01-20 13:41:24] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 2055 @ 397.77 [2016-01-20 13:44:04] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 204 @ 398.21 [2016-01-20 13:45:04] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT7D`: Buy 18000 @ 400.51 **MEGA-REKT** :boom: [2016-01-20 13:45:08] justinlooking : ouch [2016-01-20 13:45:34] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBTM16`: Buy 1964 @ 554.83 [2016-01-20 13:45:54] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBTM16`: Buy 51 @ 557.14 [2016-01-20 13:45:54] REKT : :btc: :rocket: :crescent_moon: [2016-01-20 13:46:04] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 3449 @ 404.04 [2016-01-20 13:49:00] macios15 : going 2820 [2016-01-20 13:49:21] justinlooking : lol wut [2016-01-20 13:50:05] Akaiapc40 : how much longer before another downtrend? [2016-01-20 13:50:11] DareDevil : only going up [2016-01-20 13:50:33] Akaiapc40 : until? [2016-01-20 13:50:59] DareDevil : not sure, but 400 broke and has some support building up on exchanges [2016-01-20 13:51:08] DareDevil : only coinbase is below 400 atm [2016-01-20 13:54:40] justinlooking : Akaiapc40: until it becomes pointless to price bitcoin against meaningless shit like usd and cny ;-) [2016-01-20 14:02:08] Akaiapc40 : http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-currency-digital-idUSKCN0UY1JT [2016-01-20 14:12:35] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 199 @ 402.98 [2016-01-20 14:19:34] rapidtrades : it clearly says ''its own cryptocurrency'' ffs retards...how is this good for bitcoin? if anything a regulated crypto will likely come AFTER bitcoin is banned [2016-01-20 14:20:59] rapidtrades : no government will allow competing cryptocurrencies, they dont' do it with fiat they wont do it with crypto.. [2016-01-20 14:21:05] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 1000 @ 404.36 [2016-01-20 14:21:05] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 508 @ 404.27 [2016-01-20 14:21:05] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 100 @ 404.28 [2016-01-20 14:21:22] Swedishnut : government cannot control everything [2016-01-20 14:21:28] DareDevil : prices going to 410 today :D [2016-01-20 14:22:17] habibi : rapidtrades: on the other hand it means that they have nothing against bitcoin [2016-01-20 14:22:17] rapidtrades : Swedishnut: irrelevant argument... [2016-01-20 14:23:10] rapidtrades : habibi: no it doesn't [2016-01-20 14:23:21] rapidtrades : their OWN cryptocurrency [2016-01-20 14:24:15] sleger : someone is butthurt [2016-01-20 14:24:50] Akaiapc40 : they have enough power to do it [2016-01-20 14:25:38] Akaiapc40 : if they decide to leave bitcoin and switch to their own CC who know what can happen [2016-01-20 14:25:42] rapidtrades : keep buying that dip buddy...we haven't made a new high since Nov 4th....a fact that's conveniently forgotten when 90% heresay ''trend is up'' [2016-01-20 14:25:56] habibi : who cares about new highs? [2016-01-20 14:26:02] habibi : we are on 100x here right? [2016-01-20 14:26:11] rapidtrades : ppl who want to make money that's who [2016-01-20 14:26:47] sleger : you can be long and make money without new highs [2016-01-20 14:26:53] habibi : changing words of some song i would sing to u " i love the way u cryyy" [2016-01-20 14:27:21] rapidtrades : from article ''Virtual currencies can also help boost transparency of economic activities and curb money laundering and tax evasions, it added.'' [2016-01-20 14:27:31] rapidtrades : sounds everything will be ok with bitcoin right? [2016-01-20 14:27:51] rapidtrades : cos bitcoin is totally NOT used for those things...like AT ALL [2016-01-20 14:28:04] habibi : yea fiat money is not used for that things, at all [2016-01-20 14:30:40] DareDevil : XBX index still rising steady :) [2016-01-20 14:31:47] justinlooking : `f.insertRule("[data-user=rapidtrades]+.message{text-transform:lowercase}"` [2016-01-20 14:32:15] DareDevil : lol [2016-01-20 14:39:36] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 3 @ 405.41 :punch: :whale: [2016-01-20 14:39:36] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 83 @ 406.93 [2016-01-20 14:39:46] tscha : rapid still short? :D [2016-01-20 14:39:52] macios15 : i said 2820 guys [2016-01-20 14:39:59] arbitrage001 : still short here [2016-01-20 14:40:16] arbitrage001 : whooping 20k contract [2016-01-20 14:40:36] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 15249 @ 407.95 **MEGA-REKT** :boom: [2016-01-20 14:40:38] macios15 : arbitrage001: rip [2016-01-20 14:40:43] Akaiapc40 : ouch [2016-01-20 14:40:52] arbitrage001 : but then, i am hedged [2016-01-20 14:40:58] arbitrage001 : not a directional play [2016-01-20 14:41:16] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT7D`: Buy 49 @ 409.85 [2016-01-20 14:42:16] laisee : boom! [2016-01-20 14:43:41] DareDevil : as I said: Price is going to 410 today :D [2016-01-20 14:43:54] Akaiapc40 : DareDevil: thumbs up! [2016-01-20 14:44:34] blackwhite : who is right? bfx which is high or stamp which is low? [2016-01-20 14:44:43] habibi : noone cares about stamp [2016-01-20 14:44:52] sleger : we know who is lagging [2016-01-20 14:45:04] blackwhite : oh that means we can go there and buy [2016-01-20 14:45:21] sleger : blackandwhite is lagging too [2016-01-20 14:45:33] blackwhite : i think xbx cares about them, anyway [2016-01-20 14:45:40] arbitrage001 : bfx laggged china price [2016-01-20 14:45:49] arbitrage001 : and bitstamp lag bfx [2016-01-20 14:46:03] arbitrage001 : so the bump is coming from china [2016-01-20 14:46:07] blackwhite : so who's the first in the game then? [2016-01-20 14:46:11] sleger : yes, but most people dont like the XBX index [2016-01-20 14:46:12] laisee : same old normal sequence .... [2016-01-20 14:46:29] DareDevil : all exchanges 400+ now [2016-01-20 14:46:42] arbitrage001 : btcchina trading at 414-415 [2016-01-20 14:46:52] DareDevil : yup, I'm guessing we'll be going there [2016-01-20 14:47:04] justinlooking : back to 420 blaze it [2016-01-20 14:47:07] DareDevil : 410 - 414 today [2016-01-20 14:51:19] tscha : arbitrage001: if you are waiting for a good moment to get out of your short, this might be it [2016-01-20 14:51:41] arbitrage001 : it is a cash and carry play [2016-01-20 14:51:50] tscha : oh, then nvm [2016-01-20 14:52:23] tscha : with spot? [2016-01-20 14:52:34] arbitrage001 : of course [2016-01-20 14:53:13] arbitrage001 : afk [2016-01-20 14:54:12] tscha : hope it plays out for you then, shorting quantos + buying spot can still lead to losses due to non-linear payout structure of quantos [2016-01-20 14:55:04] tscha : losses in terms of $ value obviously [2016-01-20 14:59:46] sleger : so many people are so smart now that the CEO has explained them the difference [2016-01-20 15:01:56] tscha : except the ones that still ask themselves why long-term futures sometimes don't follow spot closely [2016-01-20 15:03:28] sleger : except that they do... [2016-01-20 15:04:14] tscha : Stubborn people are just unteachable I guess. [2016-01-20 15:04:37] sleger : hopefully there is a better teacher around that will do a better job than me [2016-01-20 15:05:24] tscha : Maybe Arthur can explain it to you :) [2016-01-20 15:05:32] macios15 : rekt incoming i sid 2820 [2016-01-20 15:05:37] macios15 : said* [2016-01-20 15:05:56] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT7D`: Buy 3000 @ 411.63 [2016-01-20 15:06:12] Akaiapc40 : here is it [2016-01-20 15:09:16] sleger : maybe he knows indeed. Arthur is around ? [2016-01-20 15:11:07] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT7D`: Buy 13936 @ 412.96 [2016-01-20 15:11:27] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 1449 @ 413.28 [2016-01-20 15:11:52] macios15 : arbitrage001: hows your short [2016-01-20 15:12:03] BitMEX_Sam : Wow, what a morning [2016-01-20 15:12:24] tscha : BitMEX_Sam: morning sam :D [2016-01-20 15:12:29] BitMEX_Sam : Morning [2016-01-20 15:12:53] tscha : BitMEX_Sam: NA? I thought you are in HK [2016-01-20 15:13:02] BitMEX_Sam : Nope, rest of the team is, I'm in NA [2016-01-20 15:13:05] sleger : one more mistake i guess [2016-01-20 15:17:11] blackwhite : wow somebody predicted 410-414 xbx almost 416 already [2016-01-20 15:17:18] blackwhite : really smart people here [2016-01-20 15:17:28] blackwhite : what's next? [2016-01-20 15:17:37] blackwhite : infinity? [2016-01-20 15:18:10] arbitrage001 : macios15: still holding fine [2016-01-20 15:18:13] Akaiapc40 : let's see who predict when start short :D [2016-01-20 15:18:46] DareDevil : right about now [2016-01-20 15:18:47] DareDevil : :P [2016-01-20 15:19:07] REKT : Close your longs, close your shorts, choppy waters ahead! [2016-01-20 15:19:07] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 4623 @ 416.57 [2016-01-20 15:19:16] Akaiapc40 : lol [2016-01-20 15:27:04] Swedishnut : Good Morning! Hope everyone is great! are we off to 475 again? [2016-01-20 15:27:17] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 4388 @ 417.16 [2016-01-20 15:27:51] jung1 : holy shit [2016-01-20 15:30:51] jung1 : looks like its not the end of pump [2016-01-20 15:31:20] habibi : werent u bearish ? ;p [2016-01-20 15:31:28] jung1 : depends [2016-01-20 15:31:29] jung1 : hehe [2016-01-20 15:31:46] DareDevil : shorts incoming [2016-01-20 15:34:29] jung1 : any news was around? or just bored traders [2016-01-20 15:34:54] habibi : http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-currency-digital-idUSKCN0UY1JT [2016-01-20 15:37:02] Akaiapc40 : wow....i hit shorts and the price climb...i hit long and the price fall.... [2016-01-20 15:37:13] Akaiapc40 : wtf [2016-01-20 15:37:37] jung1 : type here next time when you open position [2016-01-20 15:39:45] DareDevil : or just listen to me ;) [2016-01-20 15:40:00] Akaiapc40 : DareDevil: better i think [2016-01-20 15:42:49] DareDevil : if the price on Bitfinex hits 412.8 better prepare for shorts incoming [2016-01-20 15:42:56] justinlooking : the sell 7D, buy H16 has not performed as well as i expected [2016-01-20 15:44:55] sleger : lol [2016-01-20 15:45:11] sleger : it's a long term trade, just double down [2016-01-20 15:45:18] justinlooking : u know it :) [2016-01-20 15:45:24] justinlooking : lnog term til friday lol [2016-01-20 15:45:33] laisee : an 'investment' [2016-01-20 15:45:36] sleger : i am short h16 a lot [2016-01-20 15:45:51] justinlooking : u are always short everything a lot :P [2016-01-20 15:46:16] sleger : XBT7D 42131 381.52 [2016-01-20 15:46:27] justinlooking : ^-^ [2016-01-20 15:46:59] jung1 : quite dangerous is go short now [2016-01-20 15:47:06] jung1 : long as well [2016-01-20 15:48:05] DareDevil : some 24H longs will get burned :P [2016-01-20 15:48:19] DareDevil : buying at 415.15 [2016-01-20 15:49:17] Akaiapc40 : finex 412.8 [2016-01-20 15:50:08] DareDevil : yup... [2016-01-20 15:51:38] DareDevil : don't think that's the new low, do you? [2016-01-20 15:52:24] DareDevil : however, bitstamp still rising steady [2016-01-20 16:05:12] Akaiapc40 : Daredevil you right again