This is a mirror of the original BitMEX trollbox archive that used to be online here.
BitMEX disabled their archive after the DDOS attack so I have decided to make my mirror publicly available.

Well now, a few days after I made this mirror available to the public, the original archive from BitMEX is online again.
But since it is still limited (neutered to the last few hundred messages) I will keep my FULL mirror alive.

You have access to more than 50 million trollbox posts. This is more than 7 gigabyte of data hosted on a $5 server so please be patient or consider a donation

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[2016-01-10 03:42:12] sleger : noone predicts 3% price delta at 24h on average
[2016-01-10 03:42:18] habibi : if there is premium, and some crazy move on spot
[2016-01-10 03:42:20] SnackyCoins : not if i'm already in coin 8)
[2016-01-10 03:42:24] habibi : yea there is reason for scalp it
[2016-01-10 03:42:41] rapidtrades : SnackyCoins: if ur already in coin, ur gaining anyway
[2016-01-10 03:42:50] SnackyCoins : but i'm greedy 8)
[2016-01-10 03:42:59] sleger : well, people play in vegas and everyone knows it s a loosing trade
[2016-01-10 03:43:05] sleger : traders here are not smarter
[2016-01-10 03:43:30] sleger : im talking slot machine, roulette etc...
[2016-01-10 03:43:37] sleger : not texas poker
[2016-01-10 03:44:06] rapidtrades : that November spike was crazy everywhere tho...premiums going thru the roof, no lending on okc etc
[2016-01-10 03:44:10] rapidtrades : manic buying
[2016-01-10 03:45:07] sleger : yeah but 24h premium was more than okcoin quaterly premium... and there was 12 h left i believe
[2016-01-10 03:45:42] SnackyCoins : heh, hasn't been free money like that in a long time
[2016-01-10 03:45:46] rapidtrades : right but the premium is in part due to expected volatility
[2016-01-10 03:46:54] rapidtrades : it's still overpriced but that was a $150 dollar day if I'm not mistaken
[2016-01-10 03:46:59] SnackyCoins : when i first came here i could just wait until settlement got near and just take whatever was between me and the settlement price 8) the bots were asleep for like 2 months
[2016-01-10 03:47:33] SnackyCoins : and nobody else seemed to be around to compete with me for it :)
[2016-01-10 03:47:33] rapidtrades : Novemver 5th, low around $385 hit around $555
[2016-01-10 03:48:15] rapidtrades : *high $555
[2016-01-10 03:48:33] sleger : on 24H ?
[2016-01-10 03:48:41] rapidtrades : yeah
[2016-01-10 03:50:33] sleger : i didnt have much btc here by then
[2016-01-10 03:50:41] sleger : testing the waters
[2016-01-10 03:50:55] rapidtrades : still testing here :)
[2016-01-10 03:51:14] sleger : how is your bot going ?
[2016-01-10 04:00:09] sleger : rapidtrades: and where should I trade forex to join the big guys ?
[2016-01-10 06:03:16] arbitrage001 : is there is page I can check how much i was charged settlement fee?
[2016-01-10 06:13:46] tscha : arbitrage001: Account --> Wallet
[2016-01-10 06:14:04] tscha : No wait
[2016-01-10 06:14:47] tscha : Account --> Trade History --> Search: {"text":"Settlement"}
[2016-01-10 06:17:15] arbitrage001 : if i am short long dated future contract
[2016-01-10 06:17:28] arbitrage001 : i will be chargged settlement fee every friday?
[2016-01-10 06:17:57] arbitrage001 : only see cashrebalance on my wallet
[2016-01-10 06:22:11] micmix : arbitrage001: no, settlement fee is charged at settlement date only
[2016-01-10 06:22:43] arbitrage001 : every friday not settlement?
[2016-01-10 06:22:55] arbitrage001 : when the platform adjust cash balance
[2016-01-10 06:23:17] micmix : rebalance every friday without any fees. fees charged once on settlement date
[2016-01-10 06:23:23] arbitrage001 : i see
[2016-01-10 06:23:31] arbitrage001 : thank you micmix
[2016-01-10 06:23:35] micmix : sure
[2016-01-10 06:23:38] arbitrage001 : and tscha
[2016-01-10 06:31:42] tscha : micmix: do you trade your own money too with algos?
[2016-01-10 06:39:28] micmix : tscha: sometimes
[2016-01-10 06:40:04] tscha : micmix: the bots you code are intellectual property of your "company"? are you even allowed to use them for yourself?
[2016-01-10 06:41:29] micmix : tscha: it's a bit of a gray area, I don't use models developed by others
[2016-01-10 06:42:31] tscha : micmix: so you didn't code everything from scratch yourself? talking about the bots at the exchanges
[2016-01-10 07:00:58] micmix : tscha: I did most of the coding and some math models but not all of it
[2016-01-10 07:17:12] tscha : micmix: but talking about spot/future trading, the math models can't be that complicated, or are they?
[2016-01-10 07:44:28] micmix : tscha: well it depends, for example there are people who can take models described here https://www.princeton.edu/~rcarmona/download/fe/CW1.pdf and make a working algo
[2016-01-10 07:55:25] rapidtrades : finex not loading?
[2016-01-10 07:58:31] thehawthorne : same here
[2016-01-10 08:06:09] laisee : loads ok 4 me
[2016-01-10 08:07:45] tscha : micmix: to be honest, I don't think models like that are optimal in the bitcoin world
[2016-01-10 08:10:56] tscha : micmix: they rely on the assumption that the prices process follows a normal-distribution. this is already not correct for very liquid and efficient market in 'real finance', however maybe the 'best solution' if we define the quality of a solution by accuracy/simplicity.
[2016-01-10 08:11:59] laisee : tscha: > was going to ask if the models were adapted for liquidity & price gapping seen in many BTC markets.
[2016-01-10 08:12:01] tscha : micmix: for bitcoin market however, this is a very bold assumption, which places the whole model on a very very shaky fundament.
[2016-01-10 08:12:37] tscha : (when applied to btc)*
[2016-01-10 08:17:39] tscha : quality of model should ofc not be defined by accuracy/simplicity, but more by accuracy/(model difficulty)
[2016-01-10 08:18:32] laisee : ... the 1 and only useful thing I learned in economics @ college was that models are to be used and not believed.
[2016-01-10 08:20:46] tscha : I studied mathematics and i'm now doing my master in finance.. still (or maybe because of that) I think mathematical models in finance are overused and overbelieved
[2016-01-10 08:24:00] laisee : true. it's a problem affecting economics in general.
[2016-01-10 08:24:16] micmix : tscha: most modern models assume poisson distribution of the order flow which is close enough to reality for markets with very large number of orders (btc included). price is usually modeled as a geometric/arithmetic Brownian motion with drift or Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process
[2016-01-10 08:25:00] micmix : price models are much more questionable but Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is close enough on small time scales
[2016-01-10 08:25:10] laisee : micmix: > do you think Bitmex has order flow to make it model-able?
[2016-01-10 08:25:36] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 30 @ 444.26
[2016-01-10 08:25:36] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 777 @ 444.26
[2016-01-10 08:25:53] laisee : tscha: > just saw The Big Short ... model failure on an EPIC scale.
[2016-01-10 08:25:57] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 1500 @ 444.16
[2016-01-10 08:27:56] micmix : price models work, order flow models not so much
[2016-01-10 08:29:53] tscha : micmix: well, ou-processes are just mean-reverted wiener processes, there is not much difference. they both rely on a gaussian distrubution which is completely ridiculous when talking about bitcoin prices
[2016-01-10 08:33:16] micmix : tscha: mean-reverting ou process with non-stationary mean describes bitcoin price movement very well on short timescales
[2016-01-10 08:34:06] tscha : micmix: define short timescales
[2016-01-10 08:34:43] laisee : isn't it just a case of adjusting capital traded or using lower leverage due to infrequent liquidity and price gaps?
[2016-01-10 08:34:56] micmix : less than a few hours
[2016-01-10 08:37:30] tscha : micmix: so how often should the price move 5 standard deviations in a few hours according to the probability function presumed, and how often does it in reality?
[2016-01-10 08:39:42] tscha : Don't get me wrong. I am sure the model works in terms of profitability. But the reason for that is most likely the inefficiency of the bitcoin market, not because the model decribes the market so well.
[2016-01-10 08:41:23] micmix : tscha: who says that the price has to move 5 standard deviations? I don't remember anything like that in ou process. It simply describes a mean-reverting process
[2016-01-10 08:42:59] tscha : >It simply describes a mean-reverting process
[2016-01-10 08:43:02] tscha : exactly
[2016-01-10 08:45:11] tscha : it says that the underlying follows a process that 1) is mean-reverted and 2) is normally distributed
[2016-01-10 08:45:50] tscha : my example with 5 standard-deviations was aimed for 2)
[2016-01-10 08:47:23] tscha : Sorry by the way, I said "probability function" earlier when I meant "distribution function"
[2016-01-10 08:50:17] micmix : well I got my masters in physics over 20 years ago so I might have forgotten some stuff :-) But I agree with this: > most likely the inefficiency of the bitcoin market, not because the model decribes the market so well.
[2016-01-10 08:50:27] tscha : laisee: There is an nice documentary on Youtube called "Quants - The Alchemists of Wall Street" where Paul Wilmott, famous quant and researcher, stated that when some quants modelled CDOs, they just assumed a correlation of 0.6 between the mortgages inside the CDO because they didn't want to bother with more complexity
[2016-01-10 08:51:42] tscha : micmix: the bitcoin markets are so inefficient, it's crazy. you should see my bot... could have been coded by a monkey, still profitable
[2016-01-10 08:51:51] tscha : maybe *was* coded by a monkey.. haha
[2016-01-10 08:52:04] micmix : that sounds about right, I can just picture one of our quants saying ah, good enough :-)
[2016-01-10 08:53:40] micmix : anyway, I have to sleep, nice chat :-)
[2016-01-10 08:54:00] tscha : micmix: have a good sleep! byebye :)
[2016-01-10 08:54:32] micmix : btw, I don't believe in efficient markets but that's a topic for our next discussion :)
[2016-01-10 09:04:14] tscha : micmix: haha ok :) good night
[2016-01-10 09:04:17] laisee : tscha: > Gaussian Copulas are complex and risky things, not surprised some quants would just assign a single number.
[2016-01-10 09:16:38] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 4044 @ 443.25
[2016-01-10 09:17:08] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 75 @ 443.14
[2016-01-10 09:17:08] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 5 @ 443.04
[2016-01-10 09:22:04] manchstr_untd1 : chill out bfx
[2016-01-10 09:22:12] manchstr_untd1 : illiquid pos
[2016-01-10 09:22:19] tscha : bfc hadn't had coffee yet
[2016-01-10 09:22:21] tscha : bfx*
[2016-01-10 09:23:01] manchstr_untd1 : wish that shit exchange wasnt so much a part of the index
[2016-01-10 09:23:44] manchstr_untd1 : freaking 48%
[2016-01-10 09:26:30] tscha : itBit is so useless in this index.
[2016-01-10 09:26:53] manchstr_untd1 : bears are being relentles
[2016-01-10 09:27:05] tscha : There are other exchanges that are more important than ibit that should be in the index instead
[2016-01-10 09:27:21] manchstr_untd1 : i agree, plus the index algorithm is proprietary
[2016-01-10 09:27:30] tscha : bears beets battlestar galactica
[2016-01-10 09:27:45] manchstr_untd1 : well it hasnt been a fun day as a long
[2016-01-10 09:28:24] manchstr_untd1 : just red on red on red with zero bounce or hope. of course i bought 24h at the absolute top and been struggling with that the whole damn way down
[2016-01-10 09:29:21] manchstr_untd1 : so many support broken with no fucks given. we really going to see a 78.6% retrace?
[2016-01-10 09:30:03] manchstr_untd1 : why did i have to say something
[2016-01-10 09:30:08] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT7D`: Sell 1100 @ 446.32
[2016-01-10 09:32:38] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT7D`: Sell 7502 @ 445.50
[2016-01-10 09:36:42] tscha : interesting timing for an 8k buy
[2016-01-10 09:59:09] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 800 @ 444.93
[2016-01-10 11:31:11] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT7D`: Sell 2022 @ 444.57
[2016-01-10 11:32:01] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBTH16`: Sell 2900 @ 520.89
[2016-01-10 12:20:42] rapidtrades : lot of selling right of the bat
[2016-01-10 12:20:55] rapidtrades : u don't see that often
[2016-01-10 12:46:03] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 544 @ 442.95
[2016-01-10 14:31:56] tscha : happy sunday to everyone btw
[2016-01-10 14:42:01] djuan : side bet. BTC drops to 436 in the next couple of days or sooner
[2016-01-10 14:42:57] djuan : as viewed on tradingview.com
[2016-01-10 15:00:16] tscha : djuan: first time I heard from tradingview.com... that site is funny :D
[2016-01-10 15:02:05] djuan : bitmex charts are from tradingview.com ?
[2016-01-10 15:02:30] tscha : djuan: oh, true
[2016-01-10 15:03:42] djuan : but the prices are obviously slightly different like on 50x and 100x and that. i just use it to draw on
[2016-01-10 15:04:16] tscha : djuan: you trade according to lines you draw?
[2016-01-10 15:04:32] djuan : also funny enough the prices on tradingview are from bitstamp lol
[2016-01-10 15:04:49] djuan : kind of.
[2016-01-10 15:05:29] djuan : i make a prediction and watch to see if it plays out. but I'm always changing my mind
[2016-01-10 15:05:48] djuan : because the market always changes
[2016-01-10 15:05:57] tscha : djuan: then you are right on tradingview... I see more lines there than on a toilet at a nightclub
[2016-01-10 15:06:11] djuan : ha ha
[2016-01-10 15:06:34] djuan : its a guide
[2016-01-10 15:06:45] tscha : I love people who trade based on geometry
[2016-01-10 15:06:49] djuan : not a certainty
[2016-01-10 15:06:52] tscha : I call them Pythagoras Quants
[2016-01-10 15:07:13] djuan : how do you trade?
[2016-01-10 15:07:49] tscha : I trade depending on weather
[2016-01-10 15:08:24] djuan : I also log in to 4 different exchanges and look at the order sizes. and i see what others predict. but i follow my gut
[2016-01-10 15:09:01] djuan : so rain. high because everyone is indoors. sunny low because everyone is out playing?
[2016-01-10 15:09:12] tscha : exactly
[2016-01-10 15:09:19] tscha : Seriously though, there has been a study which tried to examine if stock markets have higher volatility on rainy days than on sunny days
[2016-01-10 15:09:28] tscha : wait i'll search it
[2016-01-10 15:09:53] djuan : as i wrote that i thought it actually could play a small part
[2016-01-10 15:10:05] tscha : >Psychological evidence and casual intuition predict that sunny weather is associated with upbeat mood. This paper examines the relation between morning sunshine at a country’s leading stock exchange and market index stock returns that day at 26 stock exchanges internationally from 1982-97. Sunshine is strongly significantly correlated with daily stock returns. After controlling for sunshine, rain and snow are unrelated to returns. There were positive net-of-transaction costs profits to be made from substantial use of weather-based strategies, but the magnitude of the gains was fairly modest. These findings are difficult to reconcile with fully rational price-setting
[2016-01-10 15:10:25] tscha : http://www-personal.umich.edu/~shumway/papers.dir/weather.pdf
[2016-01-10 15:11:21] tscha : #protrader #sunglasses #bullish
[2016-01-10 15:13:57] djuan : I'm actually new to trading. I'm still learning. I have no idea what I'm doing really
[2016-01-10 15:17:12] djuan : actually i do
[2016-01-10 15:17:19] djuan : no i don't
[2016-01-10 15:17:33] djuan : i feel like i do
[2016-01-10 15:17:39] djuan : nah im shit
[2016-01-10 15:17:45] djuan : i dont know
[2016-01-10 15:20:52] ayy lmao : lol
[2016-01-10 15:21:03] tscha : djuan: if you are new, start with futures IMHO. Yes they are more complicated, but you can trade much smaller sizes than on spot (minimum trading amount 0.01 or 0.02 on spot)
[2016-01-10 15:21:08] tscha : just read some guides and you are good to go
[2016-01-10 15:21:40] djuan : I'm trading 100x in the deep end but small money
[2016-01-10 15:22:09] djuan : as i live in the uk. the action always happens when I'm aslepp
[2016-01-10 15:24:02] tscha : djuan: yeah, that really sucks. same here.
[2016-01-10 15:24:22] djuan : UK?
[2016-01-10 15:24:27] tscha : Austria
[2016-01-10 15:26:56] djuan : yeah i can sit all night waiting for the exciting part to happen. then it seems to happen around midnight right when i need to go to sleep for work. and when i wake up the next day, the good stuff happened around 2 or 3 in the morning. no good
[2016-01-10 15:28:08] djuan : although I'm shorting to 436 wish now. so fingers crossed it happens before bedtime
[2016-01-10 15:32:07] rapidtrades : why $436
[2016-01-10 15:36:02] tscha : because a²+b²=c²
[2016-01-10 15:37:09] djuan : because i think its going to drop to 436 before it goes back up to 450s
[2016-01-10 15:42:50] djuan : then i think its going to drop to around 400. go sideways for a bit before making a slow descent to 300. because 300ish is the true line of ascent. these bullish spikes are fun. but not the true growth. by the end of 2016 i think we will be at the true value of 400.
[2016-01-10 15:44:12] djuan : and what tscha said.
[2016-01-10 15:45:12] djuan : but like i said. I'm new. and I'm probably talking out of my arse.
[2016-01-10 15:45:49] djuan : so I'm putting my money where my mouth is and I'm shorting to 436 then take it from there
[2016-01-10 15:48:53] djuan : https://twitter.com/BTCDJS/status/686209672181878784 this is my prediction/guess
[2016-01-10 15:49:11] sleger : where does "true value of 400" come from ?
[2016-01-10 15:51:49] tscha : djuan: seems convincing
[2016-01-10 15:53:07] djuan : one sec
[2016-01-10 15:54:19] djuan : https://twitter.com/BTCDJS/status/686214297559642112 let me know if my logic is flawed. id love to learn
[2016-01-10 15:57:47] sleger : oh ok, I thought you meant a fundamental reason (as opposed to technical)
[2016-01-10 15:58:11] tscha : Here is my prediction: http://i.imgur.com/ZaCo0Jl.png
[2016-01-10 15:59:07] djuan : I just think bitcoin is slowly gaining value through adoption. these spikes are happening because of speculation.
[2016-01-10 16:00:32] rapidtrades : hey is 100 euros extra a good price to get 256 GB SSD instead of 8 GB SSD+500 stnadard HD
[2016-01-10 16:01:30] rapidtrades : sorry second one is 8 GB SSHD...whatever that means
[2016-01-10 16:03:16] djuan : no idea mate. I'll be honest. it sounds like you're buying a tv with 8gb of storage to me
[2016-01-10 16:03:41] djuan : what is that?
[2016-01-10 16:04:57] djuan : tcsha: you may be right
[2016-01-10 16:05:54] rapidtrades : it's 8+500 ffs...
[2016-01-10 16:06:10] rapidtrades : the idea is to put the operating system on the 8gb I think
[2016-01-10 16:06:27] rapidtrades : but can u even fit win8 or win10 on that?
[2016-01-10 16:07:17] HowDoge : rapidtrades: just get a terrabyte SSD
[2016-01-10 16:07:41] HowDoge : I got mine from amazon on offer like a week ago for £145
[2016-01-10 16:08:01] joequant : It's better to get a big SSD.
[2016-01-10 16:08:22] joequant : And just use the cloud or a NAS for the really big files.
[2016-01-10 16:08:35] rapidtrades : it's a laptop, limited choise...of the two options which one is better
[2016-01-10 16:08:44] joequant : Big SSD.
[2016-01-10 16:08:48] HowDoge : literally saved my PC, I hardcore multitask. with a SSD my rig has come to life again :)
[2016-01-10 16:09:03] joequant : For a laptop, you are mostly going to be storing your files on the cloud anyway.
[2016-01-10 16:09:34] joequant : And a big SSD is going to make things fly in general.
[2016-01-10 16:10:01] joequant : One other thing.
[2016-01-10 16:10:03] rapidtrades : it's 100e extra though...is it worth it
[2016-01-10 16:10:24] joequant : Yes. One other thing is that an SSD is less likely to lose your data if you drop the laptop.
[2016-01-10 16:10:55] rapidtrades : well that's good...I travel a lot
[2016-01-10 16:11:17] HowDoge : yeah I would pay the extra for the SSD if your set on a laptop mate
[2016-01-10 16:11:39] sleger : im surprised there are still laptops with old hard drives
[2016-01-10 16:12:32] HowDoge : the HDD industry is a silly money-go-round in action. we wont see the back of older designs for awhile yet
[2016-01-10 16:13:04] HowDoge : fortunately Solid State is getting ever cheaper and with the CNY devaluing that trend is set to continue
[2016-01-10 16:13:22] rapidtrades : the cheaper version has 8 GB SSHD + 500 GB, guess the idea is to store the operating system on there...anyone knows how this works in practice?
[2016-01-10 16:13:35] HowDoge : yes
[2016-01-10 16:13:50] joequant : Actually you want to use the 8 GB as cache.
[2016-01-10 16:14:09] rapidtrades : ah i see
[2016-01-10 16:14:18] joequant : It's nowhere near as fast as a full SSD.
[2016-01-10 16:14:30] rapidtrades : that makes more sense cause it's prolly too small for the new windows
[2016-01-10 16:15:58] joequant : What I end up doing is to boot into linux and run windows in VirtualBox.
[2016-01-10 16:18:17] joequant : But the fact that a SSD laptop has no moving parts other than the fan is good. If you take a running laptop and then shake it. It's bad if it has a HD, but it won't care if it has an SSD.
[2016-01-10 16:20:40] BitMEX_Sam : Wow, have terabyte SSDs really gotten that cheap?
[2016-01-10 16:21:06] BitMEX_Sam : +1 to buying one, best bang-for-buck upgrade you can make. Durability aside, the speed difference is noticable.
[2016-01-10 16:23:49] tscha : hdd to ssd is the biggest speed boost that I have experienced computerwise
[2016-01-10 16:24:26] joequant : same here
[2016-01-10 16:25:58] BitMEX_Sam : The cache + HDD technique is really not that bad either, but you want a much larger cache than 8GB
[2016-01-10 16:26:16] BitMEX_Sam : At this point they're getting so cheap, why not just buy a 512GB or 1TB and stop worrying
[2016-01-10 16:30:04] j8 : macbooks used to have a 3-axis accelerometer built in solely for the purpose of braking the hard drive when sudden shocks are detected
[2016-01-10 16:30:58] j8 : applications could even access the accelerometer data, but no one did, because you're not supposed to shake your laptop
[2016-01-10 16:33:44] tscha : I have a 128GB ssd and it's far too small
[2016-01-10 16:33:55] tscha : thinking about buying a 1TB one, might do so in a couple of months
[2016-01-10 16:41:14] blackwhite : Guys you talked here about exchanges recently. Which are the safest for funds? As i understood btc-e is not.
[2016-01-10 16:43:00] djuan : none of them are safe. but 2fa should always be enabled
[2016-01-10 16:43:12] zanza : Coinbase probably safest
[2016-01-10 16:43:25] djuan : bitfinex uses clef.
[2016-01-10 16:44:47] tscha : bitfinex got hacked like 1-2 years ago, hotwallet got emptied, but finex compensated for it 100%... so I would vouch for them
[2016-01-10 16:45:19] tscha : I just googled, it was in May 2015
[2016-01-10 16:45:22] BitMEX_Sam : I wouldn't consider clef a point in the security column, we don't use it because it doesn't integrate well with proper 2FA
[2016-01-10 16:45:31] BitMEX_Sam : But bitfinex is well capitalized which helps in the case of a hack.
[2016-01-10 16:46:12] BitMEX_Sam : On BitMEX we keep all funds offline, with multisig - no hot wallet. It means withdrawals are slower, but we're safe even if our entire online network is compromised.
[2016-01-10 16:49:37] tscha : If the entire online network is compromised, it would be possible to request fake withdrawals by circumventing email confirmation
[2016-01-10 16:49:59] tscha : Would be noticable by users though if they are online in that 1 hour period
[2016-01-10 16:50:36] sleger : BitMEX_Sam: which do you consider the safest online wallet (not exchange)
[2016-01-10 16:51:39] BitMEX_Sam : Well, 'online' is a major point against in most cases
[2016-01-10 16:51:47] BitMEX_Sam : But I really enjoy coinkite
[2016-01-10 16:52:02] sleger : thanks
[2016-01-10 16:52:26] BitMEX_Sam : With multisig it's a lot easier to provide a secure online solution while still giving users the ability to take over if the service goes down or is hacked.
[2016-01-10 16:52:52] BitMEX_Sam : Coinkite and GreenAddress are the two I see most often doing that - Coinkite is a lot more advanced.
[2016-01-10 16:53:17] BitMEX_Sam : I believe they both integrate well with hardware wallets now.
[2016-01-10 16:55:09] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT7D`: Buy 50 @ 449.45
[2016-01-10 16:55:09] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 20 @ 445.63
[2016-01-10 16:56:17] tscha : Wow
[2016-01-10 16:56:48] tscha : Freddy Fatfinger
[2016-01-10 16:59:39] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 155 @ 446.49
[2016-01-10 17:02:50] djuan : oh dear.
[2016-01-10 17:05:07] tscha : some dumb whale fatfingered and now the others keep buying
[2016-01-10 17:05:41] djuan : yup. im rekt
[2016-01-10 17:06:02] thehawthorne : with 50 contracts
[2016-01-10 17:06:03] djuan : i added extra margin
[2016-01-10 17:06:10] djuan : fingers crossed
[2016-01-10 17:07:05] tscha : djuan: I told you to start with minimum contractsize :D
[2016-01-10 17:07:43] djuan : i already made my bet before i met you
[2016-01-10 17:08:23] djuan : 1000 contracts 100x and 1000 contracts 50x
[2016-01-10 17:08:57] djuan : liquidation at 451.49
[2016-01-10 17:09:34] blackwhite : somebody bought a lot.
[2016-01-10 17:09:37] djuan : should be fine. bullish fake
[2016-01-10 17:11:00] blackwhite : and i'm sitting with my stupid 50 contracts nobody want to fill
[2016-01-10 17:12:06] blackwhite : 'bullish fake' a good phrase my firend! so relaxing.
[2016-01-10 17:12:37] blackwhite : 'bullish fake' a good phrase my frend! so relaxing.
[2016-01-10 17:12:43] blackwhite : oops
[2016-01-10 17:16:45] djuan : oh dear. bitfinex orders are bullish
[2016-01-10 17:17:58] djuan : okcoin bearish
[2016-01-10 17:18:27] djuan : okcoin not woodchipper lol autocorrect
[2016-01-10 17:18:34] djuan : ffs
[2016-01-10 17:18:37] habibi : :D
[2016-01-10 17:18:40] djuan : okcoin
[2016-01-10 17:18:42] tscha : haha
[2016-01-10 17:18:46] habibi : 0kcoin!
[2016-01-10 17:18:47] djuan : ok coin
[2016-01-10 17:18:49] tscha : try it one more time
[2016-01-10 17:18:56] djuan : okcoin
[2016-01-10 17:18:59] djuan : ha ha
[2016-01-10 17:19:00] habibi : one more time maybe
[2016-01-10 17:19:04] djuan : lol
[2016-01-10 17:19:06] habibi : its randomly ! :)
[2016-01-10 17:19:31] tscha : djuan: whats the other big Chinese exchange besides ok-coin?
[2016-01-10 17:19:44] cekseh : houb i
[2016-01-10 17:19:55] djuan : bitfinex is chinese aren't they?
[2016-01-10 17:20:03] tscha : djuan: nope
[2016-01-10 17:20:17] djuan : oh no bitmex is
[2016-01-10 17:20:29] tscha : djuan: their servers are in Milan, but I think they are registered in HongKong
[2016-01-10 17:20:44] djuan : oh
[2016-01-10 17:20:50] tscha : djuan: Bitmex is Seychelles officially :D but most of the staff is in HongKong I think
[2016-01-10 17:21:15] habibi : smaller ones like btctrade and chbtc and btc100 or lakebtc
[2016-01-10 17:21:19] habibi : there are plenty.
[2016-01-10 17:21:34] djuan : i can't get on bitstamp. are they still under dos attack?
[2016-01-10 17:22:55] habibi : lakebtc actually has transaction fees for takers, with actual 24h vol for 30k btc seems like its pretty big one
[2016-01-10 17:25:05] djuan : might short now to 441
[2016-01-10 17:27:16] habibi : go on then
[2016-01-10 17:27:17] habibi : :)
[2016-01-10 17:28:18] djuan : ok coin still bearish
[2016-01-10 17:28:30] djuan : bitfinex bearish orders now
[2016-01-10 17:28:47] blackwhite : do you judge by order walls?
[2016-01-10 17:29:02] djuan : they all add up
[2016-01-10 17:30:38] djuan : most may be bullish on bitmex but other exchanges especially big ones may be bearish in their orders which will affect the market.
[2016-01-10 17:31:12] blackwhite : do finex exchange & margin sections have the same orders? they look like similar shape
[2016-01-10 17:31:33] rapidtrades : 1000 contracts seems way too high for a newb
[2016-01-10 17:33:50] djuan : maybe I'm stupid
[2016-01-10 17:34:10] irbbqu : 1000 isnt too high lol
[2016-01-10 17:34:26] manchstr_untd1 : seriously wtf. its 4btc worth of position after leverage
[2016-01-10 17:34:35] rapidtrades : 2 is too high if he hasn't made a profit
[2016-01-10 17:34:58] manchstr_untd1 : hur durrr how he supposed to start then durrrr
[2016-01-10 17:35:03] rapidtrades : 1
[2016-01-10 17:35:10] manchstr_untd1 : yeah okay
[2016-01-10 17:35:42] manchstr_untd1 : "let me just trade this $.30 usd! thay will teach me!"
[2016-01-10 17:35:55] irbbqu : Hard to trade seriously with so low amounts, + probably wont learn from mistakes unless you're super poor or like 14yo
[2016-01-10 17:36:15] rapidtrades : first u learn the technique, then u move on to emotions
[2016-01-10 17:37:06] rapidtrades : most traders don't have a solid system so they shouldn't pass on to step 2
[2016-01-10 17:37:21] irbbqu : Better to use BR management
[2016-01-10 17:37:55] sleger : 4btc for one person is worth the same as 400 for another one, that discussion has no sense if you dont know how much he owns
[2016-01-10 17:39:15] djuan : so let me get this straight. if i play 1000 at cost of 0.0359 446 and my position gets liquidated at 450 i lose what i put in right? 0.0359 i don't lose 4.8 btc
[2016-01-10 17:39:33] irbbqu : yep
[2016-01-10 17:39:57] tscha : price will drop to 429 during next 24 hours according to my analysis: http://i.imgur.com/GRJtBzm.png
[2016-01-10 17:40:06] djuan : https://twitter.com/whaleclubco/status/686238289871912964
[2016-01-10 17:40:19] djuan : so whats the probable?
[2016-01-10 17:40:29] djuan : problem?
[2016-01-10 17:43:42] rapidtrades : what should I prioritize for trading? CPU, RAM or what...graphic card doesn't have a big effect right? all of these bitcoin sites are web-based
[2016-01-10 17:45:06] irbbqu : How many monitors will you be running
[2016-01-10 17:45:28] blackwhite : connection speed I suppose?
[2016-01-10 17:45:30] rapidtrades : none, only the laptop....to follow up, finex is the biggest problem for me after their latest redesign...
[2016-01-10 17:46:25] rapidtrades : current CPU doesn't cross 40...around 20 on average but if I fire that site up, it hits near the max
[2016-01-10 17:46:47] sleger : yep, 486 were never that powerful
[2016-01-10 17:47:36] tscha : rapidtrades: tell me your hardware specs. it's most likely a fukked up OS/reg/drivers/malware, finex/bitmex run smoothly even on shit hardware
[2016-01-10 17:47:38] irbbqu : lol
[2016-01-10 17:47:52] blackwhite : you may try to change the browser software, they can work with web layout differently
[2016-01-10 17:48:33] BitMEX_Sam : Chrome usually does best; but sometimes any site can get slow with a fast-moving book
[2016-01-10 17:48:36] rapidtrades : web browser helped a bit
[2016-01-10 17:48:57] rapidtrades : it was near impossible to run on FF
[2016-01-10 17:50:04] rapidtrades : tscha: don't think so, it happened right after they made the change...also they had the same setup in BETA and even back then it lagged like hell for me
[2016-01-10 17:50:14] BitMEX_Sam : Yeah. Some things can be done, but in the end, the DOM is just incredibly slow
[2016-01-10 17:50:32] BitMEX_Sam : If the book speeds up here we'll likely simplify the animations and/or move it to `<canvas>`
[2016-01-10 17:51:05] rapidtrades : yeah props for speeding up things here,,,,its much faster and doesn't clog up my memory as it used to
[2016-01-10 17:51:18] tscha : rapidtrades: but I have seen you complaining about bitmex site too, and this shouldn't be a problem for any decent computer. Runs smoothly even on my 5-year-old laptop
[2016-01-10 17:51:31] cataquil : screw html turn the whole gui into canvas
[2016-01-10 17:51:42] sleger : 486 are a bit older than that @txcha
[2016-01-10 17:51:50] tscha : Or better, Flash
[2016-01-10 17:51:53] tscha : Flash is the futuer
[2016-01-10 17:52:09] rapidtrades : tscha: it's a pretty weak ultrabook tbh, prolly not older then 5 yrs but built for mobility not performance
[2016-01-10 17:52:15] djuan : wtf. someone just put in an order for 1360btc on ok coin
[2016-01-10 17:52:23] rapidtrades : spot?
[2016-01-10 17:52:33] djuan : features
[2016-01-10 17:52:46] rapidtrades : yeah that happens a lot
[2016-01-10 17:53:10] djuan : its gone now
[2016-01-10 17:53:24] rapidtrades : that happens a lot as well :)
[2016-01-10 17:53:35] blackwhite : tscha: I thought Flash is dying...
[2016-01-10 17:53:39] rapidtrades : wait i still see it
[2016-01-10 17:53:47] rapidtrades : 2890 cont?
[2016-01-10 17:53:57] sleger : thats not 1k btc
[2016-01-10 17:54:28] rapidtrades : right...its only 642
[2016-01-10 17:54:33] rapidtrades : :P
[2016-01-10 17:54:40] habibi : it used to be dear sleger
[2016-01-10 17:54:56] djuan : the biggest one is now 645 but mostly sell orders on the other side
[2016-01-10 17:55:04] habibi : now there are two big bids
[2016-01-10 17:55:18] rapidtrades : its getting eaten up!
[2016-01-10 17:55:33] rapidtrades : 500 down
[2016-01-10 17:55:52] djuan : bitfinex is bullish now too
[2016-01-10 17:56:11] rapidtrades : gone
[2016-01-10 17:56:23] rapidtrades : prolly only executed half
[2016-01-10 17:56:44] djuan : i still think we are going down. I'm comfortable with my short
[2016-01-10 17:57:07] habibi : good :) in case we go up u will close it upper and push some premium maybe :)
[2016-01-10 17:57:19] djuan : some slide of hand shit happening on these exchanges
[2016-01-10 17:57:39] rapidtrades : djuan: have u tried the calc here yet?
[2016-01-10 17:57:51] djuan : nope
[2016-01-10 17:58:14] rapidtrades : are u aware that the payout is in btc?
[2016-01-10 17:58:23] djuan : yep
[2016-01-10 17:58:31] rapidtrades : same for up/down
[2016-01-10 17:58:36] djuan : yep
[2016-01-10 17:58:42] djuan : thats why i like it
[2016-01-10 17:58:52] djuan : i want more btw not fiat
[2016-01-10 17:58:58] djuan : BTC
[2016-01-10 17:59:05] blackwhite : bad for shorts, unless you do XBU
[2016-01-10 17:59:13] rapidtrades : alright then.... @djuan
[2016-01-10 17:59:23] djuan : oh right
[2016-01-10 17:59:28] djuan : thanks
[2016-01-10 18:00:50] djuan : even at 100x though?
[2016-01-10 18:01:15] djuan : @blackwhite
[2016-01-10 18:01:23] rapidtrades : try the calc :)
[2016-01-10 18:01:39] djuan : let me see
[2016-01-10 18:02:17] blackwhite : basically when you short and you are right (price goes down) you are paid in a devalued currecny *(btc). that's was i meant bad for shorts
[2016-01-10 18:03:13] djuan : ahh right. but i end up with more btc which suits me fine
[2016-01-10 18:03:16] blackwhite : XBU contracts don't have such defect. i'm new here too btw
[2016-01-10 18:03:51] blackwhite : i studied the contaract specs in the menu
[2016-01-10 18:04:13] djuan : where is the calc?
[2016-01-10 18:04:30] djuan : yeah i should probably do that too
[2016-01-10 18:04:41] rapidtrades : order options
[2016-01-10 18:05:26] rapidtrades : finally some premium
[2016-01-10 18:07:07] djuan : the calc is going to be handy. thanks
[2016-01-10 18:08:55] djuan : the long orders on these exchanges are fake. they appear and disappear too often. but the short orders are more constant
[2016-01-10 18:09:26] djuan : i think its a fake out to catch bullish noobs like me
[2016-01-10 18:10:58] manchstr_untd1 : big walls are 90% bs on either side hardly any of them are filled
[2016-01-10 18:11:52] blackwhite : > comfortable with my short > bullish like me are those both your messages? :))
[2016-01-10 18:12:14] djuan : noob like me
[2016-01-10 18:12:19] habibi : lol :D
[2016-01-10 18:12:21] blackwhite : ah, ok
[2016-01-10 18:12:23] djuan : bull short I'm easy
[2016-01-10 18:13:17] blackwhite : All things are good except the boring ones, like one of the kings said
[2016-01-10 18:32:22] cataquil : interesting that gold has rallied since the market sell-off, but silver has not...possible op there. bitcoin silver?
[2016-01-10 18:32:52] rapidtrades : op?
[2016-01-10 18:33:08] djuan : opportunity
[2016-01-10 18:34:03] djuan : i have 5 btc in gold
[2016-01-10 18:34:34] djuan : gold was at £22 when i bought
[2016-01-10 18:35:00] djuan : now its £24.45 ish
[2016-01-10 18:36:00] djuan : no it was £23.20 not 22
[2016-01-10 18:37:04] djuan : bit gold offers better rates than vaultoro
[2016-01-10 18:37:36] djuan : they will have the option to redeem gold in bitcoin some time this year
[2016-01-10 18:38:49] cataquil : I figure silver has got to catch up with gold
[2016-01-10 18:39:01] rapidtrades : no it doesn't
[2016-01-10 18:39:26] cataquil : if you got physical and can sit on it
[2016-01-10 18:39:34] djuan : why not?
[2016-01-10 18:39:44] cataquil : not talking about taking high leverage and expecting it to rally withing 5 minutes
[2016-01-10 18:39:48] rapidtrades : I'm looking at a 5y chart of the ratio, it went from 50 to close to 80
[2016-01-10 18:39:54] cataquil : but you are right of course it doesn't
[2016-01-10 18:40:00] cataquil : however if fiat does crash
[2016-01-10 18:40:18] rapidtrades : ''fiat'' will not crash, whatever that means
[2016-01-10 18:40:20] cataquil : silver is much more useful for making payments than gold
[2016-01-10 18:41:16] cataquil : or risk aversion looks for safety
[2016-01-10 18:41:40] djuan : with bitgold you can get a free debit card to load and spend. kind of like a bitcoin debit card
[2016-01-10 18:42:09] cataquil : or go long chill pills
[2016-01-10 18:59:57] tscha : wow
[2016-01-10 19:00:21] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 12 @ 448.85
[2016-01-10 19:00:31] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 800 @ 448.86
[2016-01-10 19:01:40] manchstr_untd1 : fat finger mike
[2016-01-10 19:01:45] manchstr_untd1 : back again
[2016-01-10 19:02:02] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 390 @ 449.15
[2016-01-10 19:02:21] djuan : fuck
[2016-01-10 19:02:22] tscha : it's not fat finger freddy... its mad moon mike
[2016-01-10 19:02:33] irbbqu : ^
[2016-01-10 19:02:50] djuan : f
[2016-01-10 19:02:52] djuan : u
[2016-01-10 19:02:53] djuan : c
[2016-01-10 19:02:54] djuan : k
[2016-01-10 19:02:54] manchstr_untd1 : djuan the short was the last few days
[2016-01-10 19:03:02] manchstr_untd1 : im bullish on today
[2016-01-10 19:03:05] djuan : oh well
[2016-01-10 19:03:30] djuan : back up to 460 then
[2016-01-10 19:04:32] manchstr_untd1 : 7d looks like a good deal at 3 dollar premium over 24h
[2016-01-10 19:04:43] manchstr_untd1 : if u think we're done droooooooping
[2016-01-10 19:05:30] manchstr_untd1 : especially since if we go up again the premium will only go up
[2016-01-10 19:06:27] djuan : whats your opinion? i won't hold you to it.
[2016-01-10 19:07:56] manchstr_untd1 : how short are you? id maybe unwind at least half now
[2016-01-10 19:08:37] djuan : i closed market before it got too bad. i lost 0.2ish
[2016-01-10 19:09:06] tscha : djuan: so probably huge drop incoming now :D
[2016-01-10 19:09:32] manchstr_untd1 : nooooooooo
[2016-01-10 19:09:38] tscha : djuan: honestly though, don't trade amounts that you are afraid to lose... trade amounts you don't care about
[2016-01-10 19:10:04] manchstr_untd1 : well you gotta care about it enough to care about it, but not too much that you obsess about it
[2016-01-10 19:10:07] djuan : thats what I'm doing
[2016-01-10 19:10:41] djuan : I'm fine btw. I'm quite zen about the whole thing. i know I'm still learning.
[2016-01-10 19:11:12] djuan : its about the game not the money. I'm more bothered about learning to avoid traps
[2016-01-10 19:11:50] tscha : since lunchtime 7 bucks up and still only 1$ premium
[2016-01-10 19:11:58] tscha : lunchtime UTC
[2016-01-10 19:12:12] manchstr_untd1 : youll always make losing trades sometimes. possibly half the time or more. get used to it and don't beat yourself up. learn something and try again if you wish
[2016-01-10 19:12:45] manchstr_untd1 : tscha - bears been slapping everything down last 48 hrs. im long but very timid. i can see why premium isnt high
[2016-01-10 19:12:46] manchstr_untd1 : yet
[2016-01-10 19:13:29] manchstr_untd1 : need to break 2935 to get out of this channel
[2016-01-10 19:14:00] manchstr_untd1 : well, 2940 right now. 2935 when it meets this current up line
[2016-01-10 19:15:05] manchstr_untd1 : bout 3 hrs from now. so should see action either way on the 24h
[2016-01-10 19:15:59] djuan : so i shorted around 443 and kept adding margin to avoid liquidation. but it shows no signs of stopping. i thought it was going down to 436 then back up to 460. looks like it made a U turn before my speculation. then again it could drop down from now as i thought originally. i think I'm just going to spectate for now
[2016-01-10 19:17:04] manchstr_untd1 : 2880 was a weird place to bounce. 2866 is hte 78% fib retrace and 2880 is like smack in the middle of the 78 and 61. if we revisit im affraid the 2880 gets broken and we might retrace the whole pump before / if we continue upwards
[2016-01-10 19:17:40] manchstr_untd1 : spectating isn't a bad call. buy at 2940 or sell at 2879
[2016-01-10 19:17:45] djuan : where do you learn this stuff mate?
[2016-01-10 19:18:08] manchstr_untd1 : years of doing this and years of losing money
[2016-01-10 19:18:11] manchstr_untd1 : LOL
[2016-01-10 19:18:23] tscha : best learning resource is this trollbox
[2016-01-10 19:18:36] blackwhite : do you do usd/cny calc inside your mind?
[2016-01-10 19:18:49] tscha : we have some really smart quants here... @rapidtrades for example has a PHD in finance
[2016-01-10 19:20:00] blackwhite : I woudln't bother if it was like 5 cny in usd... but it's a weird number instead
[2016-01-10 19:21:00] manchstr_untd1 : 65 cny = 10 usd
[2016-01-10 19:21:15] thehawthorne : 66.81
[2016-01-10 19:21:18] manchstr_untd1 : i have masters in econ, lots of econometrics experience
[2016-01-10 19:21:41] habibi : :D
[2016-01-10 19:21:49] thehawthorne : i have my wife
[2016-01-10 19:21:53] tscha : manchstr_untd1: profitable now?
[2016-01-10 19:21:57] blackwhite : so we are in the edge of Long area accroding to you. Ok.
[2016-01-10 19:21:57] laisee : wah, u must be rich if u know all that.
[2016-01-10 19:21:59] thehawthorne : she advises me when profitable to buy
[2016-01-10 19:22:20] manchstr_untd1 : no, im down big the last 5 months. sucks.
[2016-01-10 19:22:41] tscha : :(
[2016-01-10 19:22:52] tscha : 2016 gonna be better
[2016-01-10 19:22:53] manchstr_untd1 : but here i am! lol never give up
[2016-01-10 19:23:23] laisee : manchstr_untd1: > @rapidtrades is a good generator of buy/sell signals.
[2016-01-10 19:23:52] manchstr_untd1 : haha ive noticed
[2016-01-10 19:24:57] blackwhite : is that "troll speak" or really?
[2016-01-10 19:25:17] laisee : a big /S
[2016-01-10 19:25:32] manchstr_untd1 : so this slow creep up is good me thinks. if it jerked up it would get slapped down. we have a chance to break this channel when we push, more of a chancer every time we creep up and right
[2016-01-10 19:25:55] manchstr_untd1 : a very big /S lol. but only because i take everything i read on here with a grain of salt
[2016-01-10 19:26:22] laisee : indeed. a v. good strategy.
[2016-01-10 19:31:15] djuan : well guys imp lick my wounds. try not to think about the fact that i closed market prematurely and chill out. see ya next time
[2016-01-10 19:31:38] djuan : ima
[2016-01-10 19:31:44] djuan : not imp
[2016-01-10 19:31:55] habibi : he is just a crowd style reverse indicator, it works like that whales buying-->crowd buying--> rapidtrades buys-->dump
[2016-01-10 19:38:18] laisee : habibi: > the time to sell BTC is when your shoe-shiner is buying ...
[2016-01-10 19:51:57] djuan : Screw it I'm going long
[2016-01-10 19:53:48] thehawthorne : you should have gone long when we were at 440-442
[2016-01-10 19:55:04] djuan : It's going to go up before it goes down starting from 445.50 I'm going long
[2016-01-10 19:56:51] djuan : I reckon it's going back up to 460ish before a big drop
[2016-01-10 19:57:20] thehawthorne : 430, 438, 448, 455, 465 are support / resistance. not a good choice to buy if we just came back to a resistance line. if you do your orders like that you can also bet on football games. no offense
[2016-01-10 19:58:31] thehawthorne : you may be right and make some profits but you also may easily be wrong and loose money. just chill down and wait for a sweet spot to long or for a short zone to arrive and at that time take your position
[2016-01-10 19:59:05] blackwhite : Yeah but how do we recognize a sweet one?