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<< >> English 中文 Русский 한국어 日本語 Español Français [2015-05-17 23:36:40] BitMEX_Arthur : so your solution is to enforce some collective action against the cap on the behalf of the longs in this case? [2015-05-17 23:40:15] chrisxbt : my solution is basically what would happen now if all the longs worked together. But actually it shows the flaw with the current system that A isn't able to close his position because of the cap. [2015-05-17 23:41:30] BitMEX_Arthur : well if you have an upside cap based on the min bankruptcy price then A has nothing to be pissed about [2015-05-17 23:42:25] chrisxbt : Lets use the multiple party example [2015-05-17 23:43:36] chrisxbt : Trader B is incentivized to close against the cap if its going to settle above the cap. He waits until right before settlement before closing against the cap. Where is the upside cap protecting A? [2015-05-17 23:49:38] BitMEX_Arthur : A is liable for the full amount of maintenance margin he placed against his position cap or no cap [2015-05-17 23:50:03] BitMEX_Arthur : The system was outline pre trade, so he implicitly accepted the outcome if he placed an order [2015-05-17 23:50:07] BitMEX_Arthur : same for any trader [2015-05-17 23:51:24] BitMEX_Arthur : now your solution of a sort of weighted average settlement price based on cap + any extra equity makes things a lot more complicated than a pure cap [2015-05-17 23:51:25] BitMEX_Arthur : or floor [2015-05-18 00:01:46] chrisxbt : My system is basically just a % of longs closing at each cap before the settlement price [2015-05-18 00:02:16] chrisxbt : *below the settlement price before settlement [2015-05-18 00:04:28] BitMEX_Arthur : Ok so if I understand you correctly, B will get X contracts closed at the cap to satisfy C having gone bankrupt, then the residual of B's contracts will settle at the real price assuming A has enough margin to cover that? [2015-05-18 00:07:53] chrisxbt : what do you think of that? [2015-05-18 00:13:34] BitMEX_Arthur : looks interesting will discuss with the rest of the team [2015-05-18 05:16:17] cengel : http://www.coindesk.com/high-frequency-trading-on-the-coinbase-exchange/?utm_content=bufferfc991&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer [2015-05-18 05:30:00] cengel : market makers getting really popular in this kind of market, dogshit volume and no volatility [2015-05-18 06:10:59] BitMEX_Arthur : lol [2015-05-18 06:26:26] chrisxbt : wait till they get rekt [2015-05-18 06:26:45] BitMEX_Arthur : lol [2015-05-18 06:26:48] cengel : didn't you get the memo? this is the new permanent official bitcoin price [2015-05-18 06:26:53] BitMEX_Arthur : haha [2015-05-18 06:27:03] BitMEX_Arthur : time to sell some `BVOL24H` [2015-05-18 06:27:26] cengel : arthur, has been a pretty solid move recently [2015-05-18 06:27:55] BitMEX_Arthur : selling vol works awesome until it blows up in your face lol [2015-05-18 06:28:04] BitMEX_Arthur : but with only 6 hours to go not that risky [2015-05-18 06:28:38] cengel : minimum settle is 1.06 atm: http://i.imgur.com/Aq2XEaM.png [2015-05-18 06:28:46] cengel : Arthur, exactly [2015-05-18 06:29:00] BitMEX_Arthur : that's what my sheet is telling me as well [2015-05-18 06:29:59] cengel : vol bears laughing all the way to the bank, but at some point there's got to be a surprise [2015-05-18 06:30:16] BitMEX_Arthur : well going short in the first 12 hours is risky [2015-05-18 06:30:44] cengel : a risk that has paid off in this mkt [2015-05-18 06:30:50] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah [2015-05-18 06:30:59] BitMEX_Arthur : bitcoin is becoming like many other asset markets [2015-05-18 06:31:01] BitMEX_Wally : I predict a settlement price of 1.12% [2015-05-18 06:31:27] cengel : i predict a bit higher at 1.37 but i'm always more bullish than Wally [2015-05-18 06:33:46] cengel : use to be this time of day we had serious Chinese-driven price action [2015-05-18 06:33:49] chrisxbt : yeah 1.14 is possible [2015-05-18 06:34:15] BitMEX_Arthur : Wed / Thur are the two most volatile days of the week [2015-05-18 06:35:39] chrisxbt : how much more? [2015-05-18 06:36:41] BitMEX_Arthur : you will see in this week's newsletter [2015-05-18 06:36:59] BitMEX_Arthur : i analysed data from Nov 14 till today [2015-05-18 06:37:09] BitMEX_Arthur : that comes out tonight [2015-05-18 06:38:19] chrisxbt : okay I was going say if you're going to wait I'll have to compile it myself [2015-05-18 06:43:26] cengel : i used more recent data and vol rank by day is like Tues-Fri High, Sa-Mon bleh [2015-05-18 06:44:45] cengel : i excluded the insane vol from Dec, Jan though so [2015-05-18 06:46:52] chrisxbt : which days was that? [2015-05-18 07:41:55] BitMEX_Arthur : the afternoon vol fade [2015-05-18 07:44:26] cengel : monday morning miners dump incoming [2015-05-18 07:49:17] BitMEX_Arthur : http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/etp/etn/etninfo?Instrument=SSE109538 [2015-05-18 07:49:27] BitMEX_Arthur : so that Swedish ETN is trading [2015-05-18 07:49:35] BitMEX_Arthur : i'm trying to find out the conversion ratio [2015-05-18 07:49:39] BitMEX_Arthur : into bitcoin [2015-05-18 07:53:06] BitMEX_Arthur : looks like it's trading at a slight discount to NAV [2015-05-18 07:53:49] BitMEX_Arthur : it has traded 1220 Bitcoin equivalent shares [2015-05-18 07:55:23] cengel : moon time [2015-05-18 07:56:52] cengel : its an interesting strategy to use 0.005 btc, makes price really cheap on per share basis at least [2015-05-18 09:09:39] BitMEX_Arthur : it's smart we used to do that with all new etfs we launched [2015-05-18 09:09:41] BitMEX_Arthur : small nominal price [2015-05-18 09:09:45] BitMEX_Arthur : gets retail involved [2015-05-18 09:13:44] BitMEX_Arthur : this swedish ETN is trading up a storm [2015-05-18 09:24:44] BitMEX_Arthur : i'm going to do a blog post on it tomorrow, this is pretty impressive [2015-05-18 09:26:09] cengel : i wonder if they'll break 1MM USD [2015-05-18 09:26:16] cengel : on day 1. that's pressworthy [2015-05-18 09:32:16] rhk : nobody cares about the credit risk then? [2015-05-18 09:32:25] BitMEX_Arthur : guess now [2015-05-18 09:32:26] BitMEX_Arthur : not [2015-05-18 09:33:52] BitMEX_Arthur : so my earlier math was wrong, it has traded about 300 Bitcoin so far [2015-05-18 09:33:53] BitMEX_Arthur : today [2015-05-18 09:34:14] BitMEX_Arthur : but market has been open for less than 2 hours [2015-05-18 09:34:20] BitMEX_Arthur : pretty good first day volume [2015-05-18 09:34:32] cengel : if volume is 550K and it's 0.005 per share, isn't that almost 3000 coins ? [2015-05-18 09:34:36] cengel : or it's 0.0005 ? [2015-05-18 09:34:52] BitMEX_Arthur : apparently you need to divide by the price then multiply by 0.005 [2015-05-18 09:35:50] BitMEX_Arthur : still trying to get confirmation of that, the XBT Provider AB website is quite slow I think a lot of people are logging on to get more info on the product [2015-05-18 09:36:28] cengel : that seems wrong there's an ask wall at 47K [2015-05-18 09:36:38] cengel : and it's at 9.68 sek [2015-05-18 09:36:48] cengel : so it would have to be just shares, and each share is 0.005 [2015-05-18 09:37:08] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah that's what i initially thot [2015-05-18 09:37:12] cengel : so the share volume has to be denominated in shares no ? [2015-05-18 09:37:24] BitMEX_Arthur : that was my initial reaction [2015-05-18 09:37:58] cengel : is there something in the prospectus im missing? [2015-05-18 09:38:12] BitMEX_Arthur : http://www.xbtprovider.com/lang_en/ [2015-05-18 09:38:20] BitMEX_Arthur : on the site it says the divisor is 0.005 [2015-05-18 09:38:23] BitMEX_Arthur : i mean multiplier [2015-05-18 09:40:02] rhk : any broker offers access? Don't see it on IB [2015-05-18 09:40:10] cengel : saxo has yes [2015-05-18 09:40:47] BitMEX_Arthur : http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/etp/etn/etninfo?Instrument=SSE109538 [2015-05-18 09:40:54] BitMEX_Arthur : this is from the exchange [2015-05-18 09:41:03] rhk : right.. so need a broker to get access [2015-05-18 09:41:15] cengel : and if you can read swedish: http://xbtprovider.com/downloads/Prospectus.pdf is prospectus link [2015-05-18 09:43:03] BitMEX_Arthur : would it be on bloomberg? [2015-05-18 09:43:07] BitMEX_Arthur : i can ask one of my friends [2015-05-18 09:43:24] cengel : i dont have terminal access [2015-05-18 09:43:29] cengel : anymore :( [2015-05-18 09:43:36] BitMEX_Arthur : i have the ISIN i'll ping one of my friends [2015-05-18 09:45:20] rhk : yeah.. sadly not [2015-05-18 09:45:22] BitMEX_Arthur : k it's not on bloomberg [2015-05-18 09:45:44] rhk : I'm checking with IB, but I don't see the Nordic market listed [2015-05-18 09:46:57] BitMEX_Arthur : the question is turnover shares or a value in SEK [2015-05-18 09:50:25] BitMEX_Arthur : if you look at the orderbook given by the exchange it looks as if the figure quoted is the actual shares traded [2015-05-18 09:53:27] chrisxbt : turnover is in SEK [2015-05-18 09:54:21] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah that's what i thot [2015-05-18 09:55:01] BitMEX_Arthur : so about 325 Bitcoin traded so far [2015-05-18 09:55:12] BitMEX_Arthur : in first two hours [2015-05-18 09:55:24] chrisxbt : better than GBTC [2015-05-18 09:55:40] BitMEX_Arthur : way better [2015-05-18 09:56:01] BitMEX_Arthur : people seem to not care about the credit risk of knc miner [2015-05-18 09:56:12] BitMEX_Arthur : but the mrkt wants what it wants [2015-05-18 10:07:35] rhk : well the price is more reasonable.. the market maker is actually adding liquidity [2015-05-18 10:12:55] BitMEX_Arthur : Yeah magical things happen when u can create and redeem [2015-05-18 10:14:23] cengel : ah an order of magnitude less than we thought, but still impressive [2015-05-18 11:48:39] BitMEX_Arthur : another sleepy day for BVOL [2015-05-18 11:48:55] BitMEX_Arthur : although i think with this ETN trading like a mofo, we might get some vol after expiry today [2015-05-18 11:59:32] cengel : 3...2...1.... [2015-05-18 12:38:08] BombaUcigasa : bitcoin so volatile, very hard to adopt, much risk, many price action [2015-05-18 12:39:03] BombaUcigasa : this was the lowest recorded value so far... [2015-05-18 13:23:46] cengel : yea its a good time to sell volatility lately :/ [2015-05-18 13:33:06] BitMEX_Arthur : 1.8 bid on the `BVOL24H` [2015-05-18 14:50:10] BitMEX_Arthur : GBTC premium getting crushed [2015-05-18 15:11:03] cengel : lets see if BVOL24H can settle below 1 this time! [2015-05-18 15:19:58] BitMEX_Arthur : :) [2015-05-18 15:21:01] BitMEX_Sam : Hey, at least we found a way to make a sideways market exciting [2015-05-18 15:22:04] BitMEX_Arthur : I still think we could get a pop today [2015-05-18 15:22:09] BitMEX_Arthur : might get us above 1.5% [2015-05-18 17:43:20] cengel : is the 0% maker fee in effect now or Wed ? [2015-05-18 17:47:39] cengel : ah i se in Trade History it is in effect :) good [2015-05-18 17:54:51] cengel : the "Commission" part of the order panel should reflect whether given buy or sell at price will make/take per order book [2015-05-18 17:55:20] BitMEX_Sam : cengel: We can guess, but to be honest it's not possible to know 100% for sure in case there is a change in the book when you submit [2015-05-18 17:55:40] BitMEX_Sam : It's unlikely but possible that another order could be received before yours hits the server. So we didn't want to be misleading [2015-05-18 17:56:35] cengel : i guess its better it says theres a commission when you dont pay than it says there is no commission and you do pay [2015-05-18 17:56:49] BitMEX_Sam : Right [2015-05-18 17:56:52] BitMEX_Sam : It always displays the taker commission [2015-05-18 17:57:07] BitMEX_Sam : I agree that we should probably separate them [2015-05-18 17:57:51] BitMEX_Sam : As for the fees, all the daily contracts are 0/0.03% maker/taker regardless of the fee structure you've chosen [2015-05-18 17:58:43] cengel : yea Wally clarified that for me before. i just remembered the fee was listed in Arthur's blog post as if it was a change so i was unsure if it was new [2015-05-18 17:58:58] BitMEX_Sam : Ah. Well, we're adjusting the XBT series very soon [2015-05-18 18:02:15] cengel : 0% maker fees is a great idea [2015-05-18 18:02:39] cengel : or if you really want to get crazy, split the commission of the taker's with the maker ;) [2015-05-18 18:03:03] cengel : i mean, we're already in negative interest rates world, may as well join in the fun [2015-05-18 18:03:13] cengel : -0.015% maker fee :) [2015-05-18 18:09:44] BitMEX_Sam : I think I've seen that before [2015-05-18 18:11:27] cengel : it would be an incentive many (including me) would respond to [2015-05-18 18:18:25] BitMEX_Sam : We do offer attractive rates for market makers who are willing to put forward a minimum amount of liquidity; in general a negative comm rate is not really necessary because you should be making money from the spread [2015-05-18 18:18:28] BitMEX_Sam : But we'll talk about it internally [2015-05-18 18:21:58] cengel : how high of a minimum ? [2015-05-18 18:23:35] BitMEX_Sam : Please send arthur an email (arthur at bitmex.com), he handles the specifics [2015-05-18 19:42:01] cengel : dumping [2015-05-18 19:44:16] cengel : wicked into 233's that was shortlived [2015-05-18 20:44:43] chrisxbt : markets look weak [2015-05-18 20:45:40] chrisxbt : yeah that wick didn't even register on the vol [2015-05-18 20:46:57] cengel : major dump [2015-05-18 20:47:01] cengel : nice call chris [2015-05-18 20:47:05] cengel : 229 [2015-05-18 20:48:09] cengel : see if this one registers or not lol [2015-05-18 20:49:12] BitMEX_Sam : nice little pump on vol [2015-05-18 20:49:20] BitMEX_Sam : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Wc8XdMZZ9BR_0Vru8Sj1nu0Cc1tHsGvEqGSdMkCB2vo/edit#gid=830587621 [2015-05-18 20:49:35] BitMEX_Sam : hmm. the url parser needs a tweak [2015-05-18 20:50:04] uiop : the bangabands are parting [2015-05-18 23:26:14] Swedishnut : Poloniex is now offering Margin and lending too. Might have something to do with the market dump and volume [2015-05-18 23:26:32] BitMEX_Arthur : on Bitcoin [2015-05-18 23:26:34] BitMEX_Arthur : or alts? [2015-05-18 23:28:11] BitMEX_Arthur : https://blog.bitmex.com/new-etn-on-the-block-bitcoin-tracker-one/ [2015-05-18 23:28:19] BitMEX_Arthur : My take on the first day of the ETN's trading [2015-05-19 00:01:52] chrisxbt : are we seriously going sideways [2015-05-19 00:02:06] BitMEX_Arthur : yep [2015-05-19 00:22:51] goat : BitMEX_Arthur: good article [2015-05-19 00:23:28] goat : lol i love doing the fun take and then you do the details [2015-05-19 00:24:04] goat : i should probably write more details, being that i take the time to read through the prospectus though [2015-05-19 02:14:24] uiop : BitMEX_Arthur: yeah nice article [2015-05-19 03:44:11] uiop : RE: https://blog.bitmex.com/new-etn-on-the-block-bitcoin-tracker-one/ [2015-05-19 03:44:22] uiop : what is the symbol for the ETN ? [2015-05-19 03:44:44] uiop : does tradingview or yahoo finance or similar have a symbol for it ? [2015-05-19 03:45:09] BitMEX_Arthur : symbol is XBT [2015-05-19 03:45:35] BitMEX_Arthur : it's not on google yet [2015-05-19 03:45:42] BitMEX_Arthur : i also checked with a friend of mine who has bloomberg [2015-05-19 03:45:47] BitMEX_Arthur : it wasn't listed there yet either [2015-05-19 03:46:01] BitMEX_Arthur : it has an ISIN so it should get listed on all these finance sites soon i imagine [2015-05-19 03:46:34] uiop : cool thx [2015-05-19 03:47:54] uiop : it'd be cool if they had an inverse etn too [2015-05-19 03:48:06] uiop : a la TLT/TBF [2015-05-19 04:18:05] cengel : we've got a 1.6 minimum settlement going into final session on <code>BVOL24H</code> [2015-05-19 05:28:17] BTCVIX : goat [2015-05-19 06:25:00] cengel : Arthur, I am not a fan of using the BVOL24 rolling index across multiple days as you did in your Digest) as indicator for the daily contract. The price properties of <code>BVOL24H</code> contract wont exhibit the "drops" that the index shows in over 24hr timeframe, but a gradual decay [2015-05-19 06:26:31] cengel : the only reason why the drop happens in some cases is because the rolling 24Hr period passes the point of volatility from the day before, which is irrelevant to the settlement of daily <code>BVOL24H</code> [2015-05-19 06:26:48] BitMEX_Arthur : That's a faIR critique [2015-05-19 06:27:13] BitMEX_Arthur : I used 24hr rolling more to show that its a volatile contract [2015-05-19 06:27:29] cengel : It was just something i noticed as I was running sims on past days. I use the rolling vol but also sample vol to see how they react to price in past days [2015-05-19 06:27:29] BitMEX_Arthur : Good for traders in search of action [2015-05-19 06:27:58] cengel : Yea for that it is good illustration [2015-05-19 06:28:24] cengel : I also noticed someone on Twitter i think who mistake it for being like VIX [2015-05-19 06:28:48] cengel : it might be helpful, at some point in future, to clarify these differences so people dont think BVOL24H is an analogue to ^VIX [2015-05-19 06:30:35] cengel : but i dont think most people would confuse this espeically on dailies [2015-05-19 06:31:33] BitMEX_Arthur : I think that distinction is lost on most [2015-05-19 06:33:47] cengel : i cant find the tweet now, but a couple of times ive seen people make this mistake [2015-05-19 06:35:42] BitMEX_Arthur : I would prob confuse them more [2015-05-19 06:36:33] cengel : Along those lines it seems vanilla options in BTC are starting to be developed properly [2015-05-19 06:38:07] cengel : Coinut out of Singapore. not just binary options [2015-05-19 06:39:06] BitMEX_Arthur : I will Have to do more research into them [2015-05-19 07:57:30] chrisxbt : need a ref link? [2015-05-19 07:58:37] chrisxbt : They might have moved to San Fran [2015-05-19 07:58:41] chrisxbt : Here's their team https://angel.co/coinut [2015-05-19 08:46:18] uiop : San Francisco, synonym, Scam Operation [2015-05-19 08:46:49] uiop : eat halibut and cry me a river [2015-05-19 08:59:44] BitMEX_Arthur : Lol [2015-05-19 08:59:57] BitMEX_Arthur : What do u guys think of 21inc [2015-05-19 09:14:54] cengel : I don't know enough about the hardware side of things to know if it's economically or technically feasible [2015-05-19 09:15:15] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah same [2015-05-19 09:36:21] chrisxbt : yeah its supposed to be a lot more efficient [2015-05-19 12:58:25] cengel : NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- The New York Stock Exchange, part of the Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) global network of exchanges and clearing houses, today announced the NYSE Bitcoin Index (NYXBT), the first exchange-calculated and disseminated bitcoin index. [2015-05-19 12:58:46] BitMEX_Arthur : WOW OMG They made an index [2015-05-19 12:58:55] BitMEX_Arthur : let's give them the slow clap [2015-05-19 15:37:54] cengel : I'm scared about what UI changes are coming. I'm quite fond of it as is [2015-05-19 15:39:13] cengel : at least when i was out at lunch and had to check in on order book and execute too. mobile was pretty smooth [2015-05-19 15:43:06] BitMEX_Sam : UI changes here? [2015-05-19 15:43:25] cengel : yea didn't someone say there was big changes coming ? [2015-05-19 15:43:48] BitMEX_Sam : There are some contract changes coming, but no, no major UI changes [2015-05-19 15:44:01] BitMEX_Sam : Eventually I'm going to start working on a simpler UI for newcomers but the existing ('advanced') UI will remain [2015-05-19 15:44:16] BitMEX_Sam : I'm also working on a draggable/resizable widget system but it doesn't play well with some of our other features [2015-05-19 15:44:17] cengel : oh okay good i mixed something up then [2015-05-19 15:44:40] cengel : one thing i noticed using browser on mobile to use site, that the window popups for order confirmations and stuff were off-screen, maybe it was Chrome though [2015-05-19 15:45:56] BitMEX_Sam : Ah [2015-05-19 15:46:00] BitMEX_Sam : It should use native notifications if it can [2015-05-19 15:46:04] BitMEX_Sam : I'll take a look. [2015-05-19 15:46:30] cengel : like the execution was fine, but the Order book wasnt refreshing instantly and the confirmation notification appeared somewhere else (and the highlight text showed "click buy to ... ") [2015-05-19 15:47:01] BitMEX_Sam : the orderbook not refreshing right away is likely just simple mobile network latency, but I'll check it all out [2015-05-19 15:47:14] BitMEX_Sam : mobile isn't a big priority but we want it to at least work passably [2015-05-19 15:47:24] BitMEX_Sam : as in, no showstopping issues [2015-05-19 15:47:58] cengel : not having a native app isnt a big deal, and it was functional for me today. although maybe it would be smart to have a confirmation to buy/sell for mobile, cause you can acciently click it when scrolling [2015-05-19 15:48:17] cengel : so just a second-click kind of confirmation [2015-05-19 15:48:29] cengel : i didn't fatfinger but i could see the potential for that happening easily [2015-05-19 15:48:50] BitMEX_Sam : right, that's very true [2015-05-19 15:48:54] BitMEX_Sam : Thanks for the suggestion [2015-05-19 15:49:07] BitMEX_Sam : I'd like to have confirmations by default anyway, with an option to turn them off. Just for safety's sake [2015-05-19 15:49:30] cengel : also a good idea, i was clicking in out of browser and almost hit the buy button once, woulda gotten rekt [2015-05-19 15:50:12] BitMEX_Sam : Yeah. That's completely legitimate. I'll prioritize that [2015-05-19 22:24:48] goat : BitMEX_Sam: it would be good to have a confirmation auto pop up no matter what if your order is say 5% outside of the spread [2015-05-19 22:25:10] goat : an "are you sure that you want to place this order" [2015-05-19 22:34:38] BitMEX_Sam : goat: You have a testnet account, right? [2015-05-19 22:35:03] BitMEX_Sam : I've just deployed a basic prompt, can be turned off but always shows on mobile [2015-05-19 22:35:27] BitMEX_Sam : That's a good idea, it should show up no matter what if you are going to execute against the market [2015-05-19 23:32:40] BitMEX_Arthur : https://blog.bitmex.com/synthetic-bitcoin-report-may-20/ [2015-05-19 23:32:51] BitMEX_Arthur : If you want to see charts of premium on GBTC and XBT [2015-05-20 03:44:51] Swedishnut : so how is it going? [2015-05-20 03:46:29] BitMEX_Arthur : Hey [2015-05-20 03:50:10] BitMEX_Arthur : Swedishnut: how did you hear about us [2015-05-20 03:50:25] Swedishnut : Reddit [2015-05-20 03:51:14] Swedishnut : Reading Digital Gold while watching other exchanges as well [2015-05-20 03:53:54] Swedishnut : The chat box does say "Troll" box thus I'm fishing for other's insight even if it might be "trollish" [2015-05-20 03:56:04] cengel : swedishnut, you want some insider info? bitcoin is going to the moon, but don't tell anyone [2015-05-20 04:01:02] Swedishnut : I'm positioned long and in Margin [2015-05-20 04:03:12] Swedishnut : Check this new fire proof metal wallet https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/cryptosteel-the-ultimate-cold-storage-wallet#/story [2015-05-20 04:03:31] Swedishnut : I also own a Trezor and have Mined in the past [2015-05-20 04:09:52] cengel : minimum daily vol for past 6 months has been 1.13 . We'll probably break that today [2015-05-20 04:10:06] cengel : this is the new normal of bitcoin i guess :( [2015-05-20 04:15:58] cengel : http://i.imgur.com/zy3zZXZ.png [2015-05-20 04:16:08] cengel : something is goofy with Bitfinex's engine [2015-05-20 04:17:02] cengel : didnt print in the 5min snaps ofc [2015-05-20 04:17:47] cengel : but orders in this market getting filled $4 above steady price = engine failure [2015-05-20 04:23:56] cengel : and had that number printed BVOL would be settling at minimum twice what it's now [2015-05-20 04:27:01] cengel : Hey Sam, I tested the order confirmation thing. I think it would be better if, when you "sell", that the cancel button shows where the cursor is so it requires you to move to the other button to confirm. Just like with the Buy button where the cancel button is default and you have to move to the next button to confirm [2015-05-20 04:29:37] cengel : esp on mobile when you click, sometimes it clicks again if your finger is too close to screen [2015-05-20 05:12:41] BitMEX_Wally : cengel: Looking at the raw trade feed there was a trade printed at 231.91 and then straight to 236.76 [2015-05-20 05:13:37] cengel : actually yea now i see one at 236.84 [2015-05-20 05:14:39] BitMEX_Wally : bid/offer was 232.26 232.29 [2015-05-20 05:15:13] BitMEX_Wally : At that time, so no of the trades make sense [2015-05-20 05:19:14] BitMEX_Wally : Even after lots of trades at 236.74 their ticker feed still reported a highPrice of 233.99 [2015-05-20 05:20:02] BitMEX_Wally : The highPrice wasn't fixed until 21:49:39 [2015-05-20 05:20:35] BitMEX_Wally : (that high trade happened at 21:40:53 GMT) [2015-05-20 05:25:19] cengel : yea *74 not 84. maybe it has to do with the change they were doing to a new backend [2015-05-20 05:25:26] cengel : but i thought that was beta. then again they've had problems like this for a while. [2015-05-20 05:25:51] cengel : have you considered using an index to settle instead? [2015-05-20 05:29:22] BitMEX_Wally : As opposed to our own index? [2015-05-20 05:30:06] cengel : as opposed to just using Finex snaps to compute your index [2015-05-20 05:30:10] BitMEX_Wally : We use Bitfinex prices for our index calculation because they are real and tradable. This is useful for market makers who want to unwind a position at expiry [2015-05-20 05:30:38] BitMEX_Wally : If there is demand for it, we can list futures on other indices [2015-05-20 05:30:46] cengel : they weren't so real and tradeable a couple weeks ago when they had phantom volume/trades which were reversed [2015-05-20 05:31:17] cengel : if it was indexed to snaps from 3 different exchanges it would help smooth out some of the issues of using just bfx [2015-05-20 05:33:12] BitMEX_Wally : `BVOL24H` seems to have tanked [2015-05-20 05:35:49] cengel : https://twitter.com/bitfinex/status/596214689354264576 [2015-05-20 05:36:05] cengel : this was when people had trades executing that they weren't even doing, wicks left and right. just 2 weeks ago [2015-05-20 05:42:26] cengel : today we'll probably print record low BVOL for past 6 months [2015-05-20 05:48:01] cengel : https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/347ppn/bitfinex_completes_alphapoint_integration/ [2015-05-20 05:48:45] cengel : there's actually a break in vol from this point, may be coincidental though [2015-05-20 06:04:49] BitMEX_Arthur : i think the mrkt is just dead [2015-05-20 06:04:57] BitMEX_Arthur : everyone is in holding pattern mode [2015-05-20 06:18:33] BitMEX_Wally : Hahah someone is bidding 500 contracts of `BVOL24H` at 0.80 [2015-05-20 06:18:55] BitMEX_Wally : That's cute because it's mathematically impossible to settle below 0.81955 [2015-05-20 06:18:58] cengel : woa zo ballsy with minimum at 0.82 [2015-05-20 06:19:04] BitMEX_Wally : Yeah [2015-05-20 06:20:23] cengel : why not just prohibit bids below minimum :/ [2015-05-20 06:20:36] cengel : it's only going to get filled by fatfingers or clueless noobs [2015-05-20 06:20:45] BitMEX_Wally : Well, in this case it is a market maker [2015-05-20 06:20:54] BitMEX_Wally : And we don't cancel their orders when the contract expires each day [2015-05-20 06:20:55] cengel : more like a bottom feeder [2015-05-20 06:21:28] BitMEX_Wally : So that bid will sit there after settlement [2015-05-20 06:27:13] BitMEX_Wally : Someone is buying [2015-05-20 07:39:55] cengel : below-minimum bid guy needs to update his script to at least move up when minimum moves up [2015-05-20 07:47:51] chrisxbt : crazy volatility [2015-05-20 08:44:17] BitMEX_Arthur : The mrkt woke up for a second [2015-05-20 11:14:03] goat : wow we moved up a dollar and are staying there [2015-05-20 11:14:08] goat : bitcoin isnt dead [2015-05-20 11:14:13] BitMEX_Arthur : lol [2015-05-20 11:14:24] BitMEX_Arthur : this shit is zzzzzzz [2015-05-20 11:14:34] goat : i know [2015-05-20 11:19:23] goat : https://blog.xapo.com/a-company-update-a-global-hq-for-a-global-focus/ [2015-05-20 11:19:34] goat : https://twitter.com/grassfedgoat/status/600983649849319425 [2015-05-20 11:19:37] goat : lol [2015-05-20 11:24:11] BitMEX_Arthur : nice one [2015-05-20 11:28:42] goat : idk, i would never advertise my company that way lol [2015-05-20 11:28:52] goat : you probably wouldnt get any german customers lol [2015-05-20 11:29:03] BitMEX_Arthur : most people still have no clue [2015-05-20 11:29:12] goat : about bitcoin or that ft knox has no gold? [2015-05-20 11:30:45] BitMEX_Arthur : ft knox has no gold [2015-05-20 11:31:13] goat : lol its actually hilarious [2015-05-20 11:31:39] goat : hold on i have to get you this book that im reading [2015-05-20 11:31:57] goat : http://www.amazon.com/Gold-Warriors-Americas-Recovery-Yamashitas/dp/1844675319 [2015-05-20 11:33:46] BitMEX_Arthur : that sounds interesting [2015-05-20 11:33:54] BitMEX_Arthur : check out Pepe Escobar "Empire of Chaos" [2015-05-20 11:33:58] BitMEX_Arthur : this guy is a G [2015-05-20 11:34:12] BitMEX_Arthur : it's a collection of articles form the past 7 or 8 years he has written [2015-05-20 11:34:16] BitMEX_Arthur : he is seriously on point [2015-05-20 11:35:51] goat : ok hold on googling it now [2015-05-20 11:36:24] goat : just added it to my want list [2015-05-20 11:36:43] goat : i have like 100+ books in my want list lol and a few in this stack next to me [2015-05-20 11:38:10] goat : this one is sitting next to me too - http://www.amazon.com/The-Gold-Cartel-Government-Intervention/dp/1137286423 [2015-05-20 11:49:12] cengel : hey guys can i borrow some of your tin foil? [2015-05-20 11:49:16] cengel : ppl seriously think ft knox is empty? :/ [2015-05-20 11:50:51] cengel : but i agree its dumb for Xapo to go in this direction. i guess some people would find it worthwhile to pay someone else to hold coins with insurance+reinsurance but certainly not for me [2015-05-20 11:54:41] cengel : regarding role of gold though historically, can't recommend more Barry Eichengreen's work and Romer as well [2015-05-20 11:55:50] cengel : tl;dr is that gold is stupid to back money with and only reason why it arose was positive network externalities [2015-05-20 12:04:45] goat : lol the gold has been gone from ft knox for a while man [2015-05-20 12:05:04] goat : even if its not "missing", they def dont keep it where everyone thinks it is... that would be bad for security [2015-05-20 12:07:30] cengel : i havent really seen any credible claims about it not having any, just speculation [2015-05-20 12:08:28] goat : right, but im saying if you were in charge of holding the gold (and actually had some)... wouldn't you store most of it somewhere else for security purposes? [2015-05-20 12:08:55] goat : its classic mis-direction [2015-05-20 12:09:02] cengel : i think storing it in a humongous isolated fort with the world's biggest military guarding it is pretty safe [2015-05-20 12:09:20] cengel : it's not a pound of weed they're trying to store [2015-05-20 12:10:38] goat : lol im sure we will find out one day [2015-05-20 12:11:17] cengel : at this point there's far more real wealth being generated that's backed by fiat anyway so yellow metals are irrelevant [2015-05-20 12:17:32] BitMEX_Arthur : You guys should check out QBAMCO's Paul Brodsky Apropos of Everything I, II, and III [2015-05-20 12:17:46] BitMEX_Arthur : seriously an excellent discussion of central banking, gold, and the dollar [2015-05-20 12:17:53] BitMEX_Arthur : and how they are all inter-related [2015-05-20 12:18:20] goat : BitMEX_Arthur: http://library.fora.tv/2011/10/11/Paul_Brodsky_Apropos_of_Everything/Whack-a-Dollar_The_Global_Currency_Game [2015-05-20 12:18:30] goat : that? or its a book [2015-05-20 12:18:59] BitMEX_Arthur : it's a series of three papers [2015-05-20 12:19:05] BitMEX_Arthur : look on scribd [2015-05-20 12:19:07] BitMEX_Arthur : you will find them [2015-05-20 12:19:14] goat : ok nice, will do that now [2015-05-20 12:19:29] BitMEX_Arthur : one of the best pieces of investment reading i've ever seen, he's really good [2015-05-20 12:20:11] goat : grrrr https://www.scribd.com/deleted/53526093 [2015-05-20 12:20:55] BitMEX_Arthur : https://drive.google.com/a/bitmex.com/file/d/0B2bjqNteRwUoYjFkMzIyNDQtNGZiNy00NzU0LTgzOTAtNDdlYzFkYTVhNGZl/view [2015-05-20 12:20:58] BitMEX_Arthur : there is 2 and 3 [2015-05-20 12:21:02] BitMEX_Arthur : just google for one [2015-05-20 12:21:05] BitMEX_Arthur : should be able to find it [2015-05-20 12:21:26] goat : yep, just got it [2015-05-20 12:21:30] goat : http://www.jamesgoulding.com/Downloads/Economics%20%28QBAMCO%20-%20Apropos%20of%20Everything%20I%29.pdf [2015-05-20 12:25:12] BitMEX_Arthur : some nice gold porn for you [2015-05-20 12:26:08] goat : nice, too bad i store my physical off site or i might want to take some out to fondle it [2015-05-20 12:26:11] cengel : regarding monetary system i highly recommend literature on MMT: Warren Mosler and Randal Wray [2015-05-20 12:26:24] cengel : to explain endogeneity of money/credit creation and how that factors into modern banking system [2015-05-20 12:34:42] goat : ok, let me google that too [2015-05-20 12:34:47] goat : sorry im doing like a million things at once [2015-05-20 13:34:37] BitMEX_Sam : morning [2015-05-20 13:34:53] BitMEX_Sam : cengel: When you tried the confirmation, was it the popup box confirmation or the message inside the order controls [2015-05-20 13:35:00] BitMEX_Sam : I rolled out a new version late yesterday CDT [2015-05-20 13:35:44] cengel : message insie order controls [2015-05-20 13:35:58] cengel : now popuop [2015-05-20 13:36:18] cengel : i like the old one better :) [2015-05-20 13:36:35] cengel : but i think the popup thing is better in general [2015-05-20 13:36:40] cengel : for most people [2015-05-20 13:36:40] BitMEX_Sam : I wanted it to be less easy to fat finger [2015-05-20 13:36:53] BitMEX_Sam : inside the box was too easy to wreck with a double-touch IMO [2015-05-20 13:37:06] cengel : yea i think that is probably better, i'm not even going to use it on desktop but on mobile probably [2015-05-20 13:37:06] BitMEX_Sam : anyway I've been meaning to do a generalized prompt in the app for forever, so there it is [2015-05-20 13:37:15] BitMEX_Sam : it's forced on, on mobile [2015-05-20 13:37:21] cengel : thats good [2015-05-20 13:37:55] BitMEX_Sam : Cool. We'll be updating the live site today with those changes [2015-05-20 13:38:42] cengel : is it on by default ? [2015-05-20 13:38:51] cengel : if so you should put some kind of message on it saying "turn this off if u think its annoying" [2015-05-20 13:40:45] cengel : for the minority like me who just want smooth fast execution [2015-05-20 13:41:02] cengel : to value this above security [2015-05-20 13:41:51] cengel : security is not the right word, its like childproofing [2015-05-20 13:43:07] BitMEX_Sam : it's on by default, but you can click the `don't show again` checkbox [2015-05-20 13:43:34] BitMEX_Sam : However it always shows on mobile because I think it's too easy to fat finger. What do you think [2015-05-20 13:44:45] cengel : definitely. i seriously almost rekt myself yesterday because it's so easy to misclick when scrolling [2015-05-20 13:45:15] cengel : and the buttons are fat so there wasn't much real estate spare to just drag for scrolling [2015-05-20 13:45:21] cengel : (on mobile only) [2015-05-20 13:51:16] BitMEX_Sam : Yeah it's a bit of a pain to drag on mobile, I'm aware of that [2015-05-20 13:51:24] BitMEX_Sam : Because there are so many buttons and scrollable tables [2015-05-20 13:53:33] cengel : if you just expand the blue space a bit in betwen and on the side it should be okay [2015-05-20 14:20:32] BitMEX_Arthur : @goat what point are you trying to make in your latest blog post [2015-05-20 14:25:24] cengel : that market makers are evil [2015-05-20 14:25:33] BitMEX_Arthur : haha [2015-05-20 14:26:11] BitMEX_Arthur : i find it funny how so many traders think some all knowing whale controls everything [2015-05-20 14:26:15] BitMEX_Arthur : and that's why they lose money day trading [2015-05-20 14:28:46] cengel : why is Open Position showing indicative price as the Last Price ? [2015-05-20 14:29:21] BitMEX_Arthur : what do you mean? [2015-05-20 14:29:45] cengel : BVOL24H showing last price 1.04 but last trade is 1.6 [2015-05-20 14:29:56] cengel : and it's reflecting in unrealised Pnl [2015-05-20 14:30:17] cengel : ill refresh [2015-05-20 14:30:41] BitMEX_Arthur : Yes you are seeing that correctly, we have employed a fair price marking system [2015-05-20 14:31:03] BitMEX_Arthur : the indicative settle price will be used for marking purposes, so that affects your unrealised pnl, position valuation, and margining [2015-05-20 14:31:09] BitMEX_Arthur : it does not affect your realised pnl [2015-05-20 14:31:31] cengel : oh that's right it's today [2015-05-20 14:31:33] cengel : that the change happend [2015-05-20 14:31:34] cengel : lol [2015-05-20 14:32:02] cengel : but the first 6 hours of BVOL show volatility form the day before that doens't seem fair [2015-05-20 14:32:39] cengel : especially if it's a crazy day before with high volatility then a snoozer the next day, someone trying to sell contracts into the snooze is going to get rekt when indicative is capturing vol from day before [2015-05-20 14:33:00] BitMEX_Arthur : it only affects margin [2015-05-20 14:33:08] BitMEX_Arthur : it has no affect on your realised pnl [2015-05-20 14:33:27] cengel : maybe someone with low margin has a tighter squeeze [2015-05-20 14:33:45] BitMEX_Arthur : we provision for the difference between your order and the fair price [2015-05-20 14:34:06] BitMEX_Arthur : so if you place a buy order at 2 and fair is 1, you must post the additional 1 as initial margin [2015-05-20 14:34:22] BitMEX_Arthur : if you can't afford to post, you will not be allowed to place the order [2015-05-20 14:34:22] cengel : even if "fair" is capturing vol from day before and isn't really "fair" ? [2015-05-20 14:34:42] cengel : say someone uses all their margin to accumulate for a volatile day today [2015-05-20 14:34:58] cengel : they're stuck with a "fair" price reflecting yesterday's low vol [2015-05-20 14:35:18] BitMEX_Arthur : we use the rolling 24hr number for the first 6 hours, then we use the snaps [2015-05-20 14:35:28] cengel : yea the first 6 hr is what im concerned about [2015-05-20 14:35:41] BitMEX_Arthur : ok so what would you consider fair [2015-05-20 14:35:51] cengel : that's a tough one [2015-05-20 14:35:51] BitMEX_Arthur : if say you are 1 hour into a 24 hour observation period [2015-05-20 14:35:57] BitMEX_Wally : We could use a rolling 6 hour calculation for the first 6 hours [2015-05-20 14:36:17] cengel : or some historical average? [2015-05-20 15:00:28] cengel : something like a past 10 days average daily vol is better than just 24-hour rolling IMO...for the first 6 [2015-05-20 15:19:46] BitMEX_Wally : cengel: I have changed it to be a 6-hour rolling calculation for the first 6 hours [2015-05-20 15:20:50] cengel : that's more reasonable than 24 [2015-05-20 15:20:58] BitMEX_Wally : We'll see how it goes and review later [2015-05-20 15:25:56] cengel : we almost broke under 1 for last session [2015-05-20 15:26:07] cengel : maybe this one we can make it! [2015-05-20 17:04:59] Swedishnut : 235 wow. Lots of action in ALT markets too. [2015-05-20 17:53:37] cengel : too? [2015-05-20 18:05:07] chrisxbt : all the alts pumping [2015-05-20 19:25:51] BitMEX_Sam : Okay, latest update is live! [2015-05-20 19:58:47] cengel : sam, i didnt get any confirm when buying/selling [2015-05-20 20:02:11] cengel : unless i need to refresh [2015-05-20 20:02:56] cengel : yea okay now it popped up :) [2015-05-20 21:31:50] Kiran : Is confirmation default on every device? [2015-05-20 21:33:52] BitMEX_Sam : Kiran: We only turn it on on smaller devices [2015-05-20 21:34:06] BitMEX_Sam : Because of the risk of fat-fingering. On desktops/laptops you can turn the prompt off [2015-05-20 21:41:49] Kiran : threw me off when triggering as "mobile" in a browser window in split screen. It wasn't wide enough. [2015-05-20 21:42:10] Kiran : So I saw no way to turn it off. [2015-05-20 23:31:54] BitMEX_Arthur : Morning [2015-05-21 01:23:19] Harry931 : Hey did you guys ever decide on the Bitfinex default swap? [2015-05-21 01:23:37] BitMEX_Arthur : it's in development [2015-05-21 01:23:44] Harry931 : any eta? [2015-05-21 01:23:48] BitMEX_Arthur : you mean the contract terms? [2015-05-21 01:23:55] BitMEX_Arthur : end of Q2 beginning of Q3 [2015-05-21 01:24:13] Harry931 : ok great as I would like to hedge my exposure there [2015-05-21 01:24:31] BitMEX_Arthur : is that where you trade the most? [2015-05-21 01:25:03] Harry931 : yes there and on my local exchange [2015-05-21 01:26:48] Harry931 : i just just use the total return swaps so not sure if the cds will be affordable against the returns on bitfinex [2015-05-21 01:26:55] BitMEX_Arthur : just curious how much would you be wiling to pay to insure your bitcoin for 30days] [2015-05-21 01:26:58] BitMEX_Arthur : ah [2015-05-21 01:27:09] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah i would imagine that would be the minimum [2015-05-21 01:27:12] BitMEX_Arthur : a seller would accept [2015-05-21 01:27:23] BitMEX_Arthur : would be the Bitcoin swap rate [2015-05-21 01:27:33] BitMEX_Arthur : cause their collateral is tied up for a month [2015-05-21 01:28:44] Harry931 : so the cds is more for the speculators and traders? [2015-05-21 01:30:45] BitMEX_Arthur : if you lend Bitcoin on swap, you would never pay more than the interest rate you are receiving [2015-05-21 01:30:56] BitMEX_Arthur : if you lend USD then you would pay somewhere in the middle [2015-05-21 01:31:06] BitMEX_Arthur : but i would imagine that the rate sellers will charge will be higher than the usd rate [2015-05-21 01:31:29] Harry931 : i guess i would be willing to pay up to 50% of my returns to hedge against default so between 0.05% to 0.01% per day for USD or BTC respectively [2015-05-21 01:31:57] BitMEX_Arthur : guess this is all academic until we launch the thing [2015-05-21 01:32:05] BitMEX_Arthur : but glad to see there is interest [2015-05-21 01:32:27] Harry931 : I would hate to be gox'ed on there [2015-05-21 01:34:44] Harry931 : Have you had any contact with the bitfinex guys? [2015-05-21 01:34:51] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah i know them well [2015-05-21 01:34:56] BitMEX_Arthur : CEO lives in HK [2015-05-21 01:35:01] BitMEX_Arthur : head of compliance does as well [2015-05-21 01:35:14] BitMEX_Arthur : and i know Zane well their new community outreach guy [2015-05-21 01:35:24] BitMEX_Arthur : and i speak occasionally with phil potter in nyc [2015-05-21 01:38:36] Harry931 : any speculation why the trs rate has gone so low for btc on bitfinex? [2015-05-21 01:38:51] Harry931 : is everyone bullish for BTC over there? [2015-05-21 01:39:37] BitMEX_Arthur : a low rate indicates bearishness [2015-05-21 01:40:34] BitMEX_Arthur : the more people are willing to pay for USD borrow means they are bullish [2015-05-21 01:40:43] BitMEX_Arthur : they think the price of bitcoin will increase greater than the USD interest rate [2015-05-21 01:42:39] Harry931 : hmm well both rates have been tracking down but USD rate is a lot higher than btc [2015-05-21 01:43:26] Harry931 : its tempting to sell my btc for the usd to get the highter rate but im a permabull on btc [2015-05-21 01:43:34] BitMEX_Arthur : well buy some futures contracts [2015-05-21 01:43:42] BitMEX_Arthur : with a portion of the XBT to stay semi invested [2015-05-21 01:44:10] BitMEX_Arthur : that's a good idea i'm going to do a section on that thinking in next newsletter [2015-05-21 01:44:20] Harry931 : haha i have short sold on bitmex to hedge a price drop against my btc on bitfinex [2015-05-21 01:44:29] BitMEX_Sam : That's the way to do it [2015-05-21 01:44:33] BitMEX_Arthur : :) [2015-05-21 01:44:45] BitMEX_Arthur : now come trade some `BVOL24H` [2015-05-21 01:44:58] BitMEX_Sam : XBU is the best product online for hedging bitcoin [2015-05-21 01:45:45] Harry931 : I have been selling xbt not xbu? [2015-05-21 01:47:38] Harry931 : its a lot more liquid, why do you recommend xbu? [2015-05-21 01:49:13] BitMEX_Sam : The contract sizes are different so XBT may seem more liquid than XBU [2015-05-21 01:49:49] BitMEX_Sam : XBU contracts are about 20x larger [2015-05-21 01:50:01] BitMEX_Sam : XBU is an inverse contract, which means its always worth US$100 in bitcoin terms [2015-05-21 01:50:17] BitMEX_Sam : XBT is worth 1000 satoshis * the US dollar price [2015-05-21 01:50:34] BitMEX_Sam : It's better for going long. XBU is more predictable for going short [2015-05-21 01:50:36] BitMEX_Sam : More details: https://blog.bitmex.com/xbt-vs-xbu-chain/ [2015-05-21 01:50:49] Harry931 : ok thsnkd [2015-05-21 01:51:22] BitMEX_Sam : If you want to test out how they behave in the real world, definitely try trading on https://testnet.bitmex.com/ [2015-05-21 01:51:33] Harry931 : ok will do [2015-05-21 06:23:40] cengel : i guess today we really may break 1 for once