This is a mirror of the original BitMEX trollbox archive that used to be online here.
BitMEX disabled their archive after the DDOS attack so I have decided to make my mirror publicly available.

Well now, a few days after I made this mirror available to the public, the original archive from BitMEX is online again.
But since it is still limited (neutered to the last few hundred messages) I will keep my FULL mirror alive.

You have access to more than 50 million trollbox posts. This is more than 7 gigabyte of data hosted on a $5 server so please be patient or consider a donation

<<  >>  English  中文  Русский  한국어  日本語  Español  Français 
[2015-05-14 17:44:40] cengelandreasen : just something to calculate and graph the indicative price using only price snaps from contract start
[2015-05-14 17:46:02] cengelandreasen : but would be nice to have the indicator in TV
[2015-05-14 17:59:23] chrisxbt : impossible to code in pinescript
[2015-05-14 19:21:05] cengelandreasen : yea its garbage
[2015-05-14 19:21:21] BombaUcigasa : Sam, is BVOL indicative settlement price a rolling value?
[2015-05-14 19:21:25] BombaUcigasa : it seems rather low now
[2015-05-14 19:32:28] chrisxbt : BombaUcigasa: its the volatility from 12:00 UTC to now
[2015-05-14 19:40:33] cengelandreasen : Bomba, first 6 hours it uses the volatility from past day, but after that only from 12:00
[2015-05-14 19:44:03] chrisxbt : by past day you mean past 24 hours
[2015-05-14 19:56:22] cengelandreasen : nope Wally said he just uses the BVOL from the day before
[2015-05-14 19:56:49] cengelandreasen : that's why in the first 6 hours the indicative price was static at the prior settled BVOL24
[2015-05-14 19:58:53] chrisxbt : but it wasn't static
[2015-05-14 19:59:25] chrisxbt : cengelandreasen: .
[2015-05-14 19:59:45] cengelandreasen : then Wally will need to confirm because we saw two different things
[2015-05-14 20:00:16] cengelandreasen : can also double check the logs
[2015-05-14 20:40:18] chrisxbt : cengelandreasen: did you see it change?
[2015-05-14 20:41:07] cengelandreasen : no i saw it have same price for 6 hr in start
[2015-05-14 20:44:02] chrisxbt : maybe I remember wrong then
[2015-05-14 20:44:15] chrisxbt : cause I was also referring to my tv chart
[2015-05-14 20:51:04] BitMEX_Sam : I can clarify with him when he's awake (HKT), but I believe what he means is that it is rolling until 06:00 GMT from the 24 hours before
[2015-05-14 20:51:22] BitMEX_Sam : and then past 06:00 GMT, it is based on volatility between 00:00 GMT and the current time
[2015-05-14 20:53:04] BitMEX_Sam : .BVOL24H is probably the measure you want
[2015-05-14 20:53:16] BitMEX_Sam : that's just rolling 24hrs, last 288 samples of .XBT_5H
[2015-05-14 20:53:23] BitMEX_Sam : `.XBT_5M`, rather
[2015-05-14 20:53:56] chrisxbt : cengelandreasen: then you must be mistaken, it probably did change
[2015-05-14 20:54:01] BitMEX_Sam : We only show `.BVOL24H` daily in the contract specifications, but if you fetch it from the API you will actually get 5-minutely snaps
[2015-05-14 20:54:04] BitMEX_Sam : See e.g. https://www.bitmex.com/api/v1/trade?symbol=.BVOL24H&count=200&columns=price
[2015-05-14 20:54:14] BitMEX_Sam : You can then plug this into excel if you like and chart it
[2015-05-14 20:54:32] chrisxbt : [2015-05-14 04:48:33] BitMEX_Wally: Between 0-6 hours I just use .BVOL24H for the indicative settle price
[2015-05-14 20:54:38] BitMEX_Sam : See https://www.bitmex.com/app/excelPlugin
[2015-05-14 20:57:02] BitMEX_Sam : By Monday we'll have the index data in the charts on the site, we just need to make a small change on the backend to convert the data
[2015-05-14 20:57:33] BitMEX_Sam : I'll put charts on each index page as well as on top of the main chart. So BVOL24H will show .BVOL24H as another colored line, and XBT/XBU will show `.XBT` (BFX Spot)
[2015-05-14 20:59:57] cengelandreasen : okay that was my fault then you were right chrisxbt
[2015-05-14 21:03:41] chrisxbt : What wally said could have easily been misunderstood for the settlement price
[2015-05-14 21:14:49] cengelandreasen : Sam, I saw the plugin but didn't find many features. what i did instead was to just collect the 5min snaps and compute vol from there. and instead of rolling, just computing from start-time
[2015-05-14 21:15:00] cengelandreasen : as an additional comparative benchmark
[2015-05-14 21:15:11] BitMEX_Sam : I should be able to get something together from our google spreadsheet
[2015-05-14 21:15:13] BitMEX_Sam : let me hack on it a bit
[2015-05-14 21:16:00] cengelandreasen : andm y volatility measure tracks the indicative price fien (after 6 hrs into day)
[2015-05-14 21:17:34] cengelandreasen : http://i.imgur.com/2sl9AzF.png
[2015-05-14 21:18:57] cengelandreasen : i guess it would be funny to add in some other functionality to Excel sheet, like even placing orders and stuff lol
[2015-05-14 21:22:42] BitMEX_Sam : That's possible, yeah
[2015-05-14 21:22:43] BitMEX_Sam : Nice work on the sheet
[2015-05-14 21:23:48] BitMEX_Sam : If you wanted to place orders or see your positions via the sheet, I'd create a sheet with your public and private API keys and use that to HMAC sign the requests
[2015-05-14 21:23:57] BitMEX_Sam : Not sure how easy that is to do in VBA
[2015-05-14 21:26:59] cengelandreasen : ty. we have bank holiday here today and tomorrow so maybe i'll throw something together, although really more for lulz than actual use since the UI is fine IMO
[2015-05-14 21:26:59] BitMEX_Sam : BFX moving fast
[2015-05-14 21:27:04] cengelandreasen : dump
[2015-05-14 21:29:48] cengelandreasen : fakeout more like it
[2015-05-14 21:51:32] chrisxbt : Bitcoin is real crazy today
[2015-05-14 21:53:41] goat : chrisxbt: the last hour lol
[2015-05-14 22:34:30] BitMEX_Sam : Got google sheets to play ball
[2015-05-14 22:34:31] BitMEX_Sam : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Wc8XdMZZ9BR_0Vru8Sj1nu0Cc1tHsGvEqGSdMkCB2vo/edit?usp=sharing
[2015-05-14 22:34:51] BitMEX_Sam : See the second tab for a graph. Note this is 24H data rolling, so you'll see BVOL take a sharp dip in the last few minutes because BFX's last big dump just crossed out of bounds
[2015-05-14 22:47:19] chrisxbt : bvol looking like bfx grpah
[2015-05-14 22:50:30] chrisxbt : someone's bot is fucked up
[2015-05-14 23:26:37] BitMEX_Sam : Yeah that was a very low sell
[2015-05-14 23:51:58] BitMEX_Sam : Updated BVOL24H graph: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Wc8XdMZZ9BR_0Vru8Sj1nu0Cc1tHsGvEqGSdMkCB2vo/pubchart?oid=1928516861&format=interactive
[2015-05-15 00:23:35] chrisxbt : oh man got all chopped up in this market
[2015-05-15 00:25:01] BitMEX_Arthur : the chop is strong with this one
[2015-05-15 00:25:08] BitMEX_Arthur : trade some BVOL instead :0
[2015-05-15 00:31:35] goat : BitMEX_Arthur: people are getting anxious (they are such fragile traders lol) - http://shitco.in/2015/05/14/guess-whos-back-back-again-fontas-is-back/
[2015-05-15 00:31:57] BitMEX_Arthur : so what is the backstory of Fontas
[2015-05-15 00:32:09] BitMEX_Arthur : i've heard snippets about him
[2015-05-15 00:32:23] goat : so the internet friendly version
[2015-05-15 00:32:56] goat : he was an influential trader who used to be in the btce troll box and encourage others to but or sell in order to move the price
[2015-05-15 00:33:08] goat : and used other avenues obvi (twitter etc)
[2015-05-15 00:33:08] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-05-15 00:33:15] BitMEX_Arthur : so a pro pump and dumper
[2015-05-15 00:33:30] goat : lol im not here to call people names, i try to be friendly :D
[2015-05-15 00:33:56] goat : but he had a lot of ltc
[2015-05-15 00:34:04] goat : and moved that price quite a bit
[2015-05-15 00:34:38] BitMEX_Arthur : we were talking about him yday, me and aabtc
[2015-05-15 00:35:09] BitMEX_Arthur : in relation to his altcoin trading prowess on btc-e
[2015-05-15 00:35:49] goat : http://imgur.com/ypBFJcD
[2015-05-15 00:36:14] goat : you can see why i didnt put that whole thing in my post lol
[2015-05-15 00:36:52] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-05-15 00:40:29] BitMEX_Arthur : people give way too much credit to certain mythical traders
[2015-05-15 00:40:33] BitMEX_Arthur : i love Bitcoin
[2015-05-15 00:40:36] goat : wow
[2015-05-15 00:40:44] goat : i literally just had this typed into my chat box
[2015-05-15 00:40:48] goat : and deleted it
[2015-05-15 00:40:52] goat : "i love bitcoin, were all such nerds"
[2015-05-15 00:40:53] goat : hahahahaha
[2015-05-15 00:40:57] goat : then i was like no, thats lame
[2015-05-15 00:41:45] goat : i might go to this http://www.nypl.org/events/programs/2015/05/19/bitcoin-gavin-andresen-nathaniel-popper-andrew-sorkin-fred-wilson
[2015-05-15 00:42:31] BitMEX_Arthur : sounds like it will be cool
[2015-05-15 00:43:22] goat : looks like it
[2015-05-15 00:43:30] goat : a bunch of my friends are going so it should be a good time
[2015-05-15 00:47:48] goat : i also signed up for this today too - https://class.coursera.org/money-004/wiki/syllabus
[2015-05-15 00:48:11] goat : i feel like i probably know most of it but i want to learn more about repos
[2015-05-15 00:49:03] BitMEX_Arthur : i need to brush up on my stats
[2015-05-15 00:49:13] goat : coursera is awesome
[2015-05-15 00:49:24] goat : i took a cryptography class there from stanford and it was really good
[2015-05-15 00:49:26] goat : i learned a lot
[2015-05-15 00:49:37] goat : and its all free which is the best part, and you do it at your own pace
[2015-05-15 00:49:37] BitMEX_Arthur : actually that's a really good idea
[2015-05-15 00:50:53] goat : yeah, and you can do the work whenever
[2015-05-15 00:51:00] goat : hold on ill find you the class
[2015-05-15 00:51:09] goat : the profs name was dan boneh i think or something like that
[2015-05-15 00:51:30] goat : https://www.coursera.org/course/crypto
[2015-05-15 00:53:04] BitMEX_Arthur : thx
[2015-05-15 00:53:50] goat : its so redic when you go through the class because at one part i was like like wow, i get bitcoin
[2015-05-15 00:53:57] goat : like 100% i just get how the entire thing works
[2015-05-15 00:54:09] goat : and the part when he explains the dvd decryption is sick too
[2015-05-15 00:54:19] goat : about how they broke the encryption
[2015-05-15 00:54:28] BitMEX_Arthur : traditional university education's days are numbered
[2015-05-15 00:54:41] goat : i know man
[2015-05-15 00:54:50] goat : im so happy i only paid for bachelors
[2015-05-15 00:55:02] goat : everything else i learn at my own pace for free and dont need the shit filler classes
[2015-05-15 01:02:14] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah
[2015-05-15 01:02:37] BitMEX_Arthur : once u learn how to learn, traditional education is worthless
[2015-05-15 01:05:34] goat : totally man, since i found bitcoin i have learned more than i learned in 4 years of college
[2015-05-15 01:05:42] goat : and the best part is that its all out of my own curiosity
[2015-05-15 01:05:52] BitMEX_Arthur : and it pays
[2015-05-15 01:05:53] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-05-15 01:05:57] BitMEX_Arthur : hpefully :)
[2015-05-15 01:06:09] goat : haha it will
[2015-05-15 01:06:14] goat : im not worried about that part
[2015-05-15 01:15:48] goat : did you read my post from the other day
[2015-05-15 01:15:53] goat : the article from the new yorker
[2015-05-15 01:16:00] goat : good stuff from back in the day
[2015-05-15 01:16:17] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah
[2015-05-15 01:16:25] BitMEX_Arthur : wrong article
[2015-05-15 01:16:41] BitMEX_Arthur : did u see the London Review of Books recent piece about the bin laden assasenation
[2015-05-15 01:16:44] goat : yes
[2015-05-15 01:16:48] goat : simon hersh
[2015-05-15 01:16:56] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah
[2015-05-15 01:17:18] goat : i read his stuff about the syria thing too
[2015-05-15 01:17:27] goat : unfortunaltey its not proper to talk about on the internet lol
[2015-05-15 01:17:35] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah
[2015-05-15 01:18:23] goat : http://imgur.com/qpxr2td
[2015-05-15 01:21:32] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-05-15 01:31:56] goat : looks like we might get a little pump here
[2015-05-15 01:32:00] goat : okc trying to contain it
[2015-05-15 01:36:17] BitMEX_Arthur : small melt up
[2015-05-15 01:36:19] BitMEX_Arthur : i'm super bearish now
[2015-05-15 01:40:11] goat : the bfx longs are really a downer (lol)
[2015-05-15 01:40:25] goat : but the news is so bullish i feel like we are seeing some new money come in
[2015-05-15 01:40:47] BitMEX_Arthur : we failed to hold the itBit and GBTC rally
[2015-05-15 01:40:51] BitMEX_Arthur : couldn't even break $250
[2015-05-15 01:40:53] goat : i know that my parents, some of their friends, my girlfriends parents and some of their friends/family members are all buying btc regularly
[2015-05-15 01:41:03] goat : those coins need to be sourced from somewhere
[2015-05-15 01:41:16] goat : they are all just coinbase vaulting them
[2015-05-15 01:41:48] goat : people like them were buying btc just to make us (the younger generation) happy
[2015-05-15 01:41:53] goat : now that the news is out they are like wow this is for real
[2015-05-15 01:42:06] goat : im not saying they are buying a ton of coins, but say like 1-10 a week
[2015-05-15 01:42:16] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah but the price action isn't reflecting new money imo
[2015-05-15 01:42:25] goat : i think it kind of is though
[2015-05-15 01:42:30] goat : that were at least neutral
[2015-05-15 01:42:41] goat : so maybe that new money is offsetting mined coins
[2015-05-15 01:42:51] goat : im not saying the trend is up from here, but i think were at least flat
[2015-05-15 01:42:59] BitMEX_Arthur : i think we have one more serious plunge in store before the bull market really can begin
[2015-05-15 01:43:22] goat : those were my thoughts, but i feel like maybe we arent going to see anotehr bull market
[2015-05-15 01:43:29] goat : just a slow trend upward with a lot of volatility
[2015-05-15 01:45:10] BitMEX_Arthur : i would like to be wrong on this
[2015-05-15 01:45:19] BitMEX_Arthur : better for biz
[2015-05-15 01:45:26] goat : lol
[2015-05-15 01:45:36] goat : it sucks that the price hasnt gone up at least to liek 1k
[2015-05-15 01:45:44] goat : because then there would be alot more businesses starting
[2015-05-15 01:45:53] goat : just bc people have money to do more
[2015-05-15 01:46:09] goat : i know it will happen in due time, but thats the type of thing thats going to set off a chain reaction
[2015-05-15 01:46:26] goat : if we have a slow climb and all of the hodlrs can actually contribute back to the eco system
[2015-05-15 01:46:34] goat : bc they are rich and have good ideas
[2015-05-15 01:47:32] BitMEX_Arthur : a rising tide lifts all shipts
[2015-05-15 01:48:22] goat : yep
[2015-05-15 02:12:03] goat : euro is all over the place lol
[2015-05-15 02:34:35] aabtc : Hey goat, are you goat from btctalk from days of yore?
[2015-05-15 02:34:58] BitMEX_Arthur : aabtc: you at the conference?
[2015-05-15 02:35:27] aabtc : Yeah
[2015-05-15 02:35:34] BitMEX_Arthur : many people there yet?
[2015-05-15 02:36:18] aabtc : About the same as yesterday, thought it would be deserted with everyone hungover at hotels
[2015-05-15 02:36:33] aabtc : Skipping today?
[2015-05-15 02:36:36] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah same, i'm going to show up in the afternoon
[2015-05-15 02:36:41] BitMEX_Arthur : have some work to do and meetings
[2015-05-15 04:53:10] cengelandreasen : let see some morning action
[2015-05-15 06:15:33] BitMEX_Arthur : Aloha
[2015-05-15 06:41:09] aabtc : Lol Arthur
[2015-05-15 06:41:14] aabtc : They're waiting for you
[2015-05-15 06:41:41] aabtc : They're going to skip you on account of you probably being at the gym
[2015-05-15 06:43:17] BitMEX_Arthur : I was there and left I had the wtong time in my calendar
[2015-05-15 06:43:40] BitMEX_Arthur : BC everyone was at lunch
[2015-05-15 07:02:04] aabtc : That's ok you get to avoid the heat when tony engages bash mode lol
[2015-05-15 07:02:14] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah i just got here
[2015-05-15 07:02:18] BitMEX_Arthur : as long as my logo is on the screen
[2015-05-15 07:02:21] BitMEX_Arthur : i'm all good
[2015-05-15 08:14:45] cengelandreasen : oh wow, playing with the platform from mobile and it is smooth as butter, really nice maneuverability
[2015-05-15 08:59:40] BitMEX_Wally : :)
[2015-05-15 09:13:26] BitMEX_Wally : People are loving the `BVOL24H` future
[2015-05-15 09:32:33] aabtc : yes, its getting decent volume :)
[2015-05-15 09:52:03] BitMEX_Wally : aabtc: Indicative settlement price is currently 2.32 and falling.
[2015-05-15 09:52:26] BitMEX_Wally : Mathematically it can't settle less than 2.21%
[2015-05-15 09:52:42] BitMEX_Wally : (volatility calculation assuming the price does not move between now and settlement)
[2015-05-15 09:53:46] aabtc : haha still laughing about when someone asked arthur at the conference what he would do if ppl pnd'ed bvol
[2015-05-15 10:00:12] BitMEX_Wally : I wasn't sure what the question was exactly
[2015-05-15 10:00:30] BitMEX_Wally : "What if someone pretends to be BitMEX"?
[2015-05-15 10:02:29] aabtc : "what if people who weren't very smart made an irc room and pumped your instrument and asked for a refund"
[2015-05-15 10:08:38] BitMEX_Wally : "No"
[2015-05-15 10:19:01] aabtc : lol i think 2.21 isn't a bad estimate this market is taking sideways to a new level
[2015-05-15 10:20:15] BitMEX_Wally : I wouldn't want to be caught short
[2015-05-15 10:20:38] BitMEX_Wally : 2 hours till settlement, anything can happen
[2015-05-15 10:26:46] aabtc : lol coz you guys put the settlement time right on ny open
[2015-05-15 10:30:58] BitMEX_Wally : We chose the time that everyone would be awake in all timezones
[2015-05-15 10:31:11] BitMEX_Wally : 8pm Hong Kong, 8am New York, 12pm London
[2015-05-15 10:51:20] aabtc : 6am hk time for maximum shenanigans synergy pls
[2015-05-15 11:53:09] cengelandreasen : wally, unfortunately i haven't seen any asks below the vol floor of the day
[2015-05-15 11:54:16] cengelandreasen : for any of hte days it has traded
[2015-05-15 11:54:35] BitMEX_Wally : Are you saying people are too smart?
[2015-05-15 11:54:38] aabtc : bitcoin baby pls behave for the next 5 min daddy has to go meet friends
[2015-05-15 11:54:59] cengelandreasen : Wally, no but i thought when you mentioned that you implied there was mispricing in orderbook but i have yet to see it
[2015-05-15 11:55:02] aabtc : :59 whipsaw incoming
[2015-05-15 11:55:42] cengelandreasen : i do three scenario simulation of no vol, some vol, high vol as the day progresses
[2015-05-15 11:56:00] BitMEX_Wally : The implied settlement price is usually too high, because it assumes the day will continue as it has.
[2015-05-15 11:56:05] BitMEX_Wally : So usually there is easy pickings in the orderbook
[2015-05-15 11:56:21] cengelandreasen : yea easy pickings until a dump or pump happens in last few hours of settlement
[2015-05-15 11:56:27] BitMEX_Wally : :)
[2015-05-15 11:56:39] cengelandreasen : im looking for easier pickings than that :)
[2015-05-15 11:59:22] cengelandreasen : or, getting early bids filled at decent price another okay strategy
[2015-05-15 12:01:07] BitMEX_Wally : Bang
[2015-05-15 12:01:11] BitMEX_Wally : It settled at 2.22
[2015-05-15 12:10:00] cengelandreasen : so who's got the insider scoop on whether the volatility monster is going to visit us tonight?
[2015-05-15 12:39:47] BitMEX_Arthur : i think so
[2015-05-15 12:39:52] BitMEX_Arthur : been really quiet week
[2015-05-15 17:32:58] Swedishnut : Pretty sure there will be a shake up as soon as it is about 3pm Central. Fridays get Freaky
[2015-05-15 22:15:44] BitMEX_Arthur : BVOL24H looking rich here
[2015-05-15 22:31:50] BombaUcigasa : It seems people are not buying into the volatility will be low paradigm...
[2015-05-16 00:20:33] chrisxbt : damn didn't expect to see you on the front page. https://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/362doj/a_website_coding_itself_live/
[2015-05-16 00:37:39] chrudat : Happy Birthday Arthur
[2015-05-16 00:49:06] BitMEX_Arthur : chrudat: thanks but it's not my bday :)
[2015-05-16 00:49:55] BitMEX_Arthur : chrisxbt: yeah Sam's pretty bad ass
[2015-05-16 03:56:34] cengelandreasen : wow yea that is cool
[2015-05-16 04:02:18] cengelandreasen : looks like settlement floor today is about 1.34 from here
[2015-05-16 04:18:54] BitMEX_Wally : cengelandreasen: Yes, I calculate 1.35%
[2015-05-16 04:19:18] BitMEX_Wally : My volatility prediction model says that we will settle at 1.42%
[2015-05-16 04:19:50] BitMEX_Wally : Assuming we have no more spikes of course
[2015-05-16 04:20:22] BitMEX_Wally : Like the spike an hour ago
[2015-05-16 04:21:53] BitMEX_Wally : Haha the second I predicted 1.42% someone smacked the bids from 1.90 down to 1.51
[2015-05-16 04:33:59] cengelandreasen : yea i noticed that heh
[2015-05-16 04:34:14] cengelandreasen : Wally, are you using any econometric model for it or just basic averages etc ?
[2015-05-16 04:34:47] BitMEX_Wally : Just averages
[2015-05-16 04:34:54] BitMEX_Wally : Sums of variances
[2015-05-16 04:35:13] BitMEX_Wally : Over the observation period so far, and then an estimation of the future volatility
[2015-05-16 04:35:35] cengelandreasen : yea i figured it would be fruitless to try and model it using GARCH or some other method
[2015-05-16 04:37:23] BitMEX_Wally : If I find time I'll do a proper study of the auto-correlation of the volatiltiy
[2015-05-16 04:53:23] cengelandreasen : i did some preliminary stuff in R, just to confirm a few obvious things like volatility clustering. not sure how much use it will be to go deep into modeling it with any other kind of variables seeing as how BTC doesn't like to follow fundamentals as it is
[2015-05-16 04:55:28] cengelandreasen : i mean, if we find out the resids modeling it with GARCH(1,1) are well behaved what do we even do with that? heh
[2015-05-16 04:56:01] cengelandreasen : so what i just do instead is use floor, avg, and then a moderate and high scenario
[2015-05-16 05:16:51] cengelandreasen : nevertheless i'd be interested to see what you come up with :)
[2015-05-16 05:21:11] BitMEX_Wally : We'll create some Excel spreadsheets with various ideas
[2015-05-16 05:21:16] BitMEX_Wally : Arthur will be blogging no doubt
[2015-05-16 05:21:23] BitMEX_Arthur : SHILL SHILL SHILL
[2015-05-16 05:21:37] BitMEX_Arthur : Yes we are getting real time data for all BitMEX indices into excel
[2015-05-16 05:29:41] cengelandreasen : yep looking forward to it
[2015-05-16 07:54:22] chrisxbt : oh so for floor do you just calculate the current mean and say that's the change for the every 5 mins?
[2015-05-16 07:56:16] cengelandreasen : no that's the "fair prediction"
[2015-05-16 07:56:25] cengelandreasen : the floor assumes 0 volatility from t=0 -> T
[2015-05-16 07:57:58] cengelandreasen : http://i.imgur.com/ypsjbP6.png
[2015-05-16 07:58:58] cengelandreasen : this is from my setup. Min = assumes vol=0 out to settlement. Pred assumes Avg daily Vol out to settlement
[2015-05-16 07:59:13] cengelandreasen : and mod/high just reflect alt scenarios
[2015-05-16 08:18:52] chrisxbt : I'm saying to create a floor you want to minimize stdev. Which means all values should be close to the current mean.
[2015-05-16 08:21:36] chrisxbt : cengelandreasen: .
[2015-05-16 08:32:03] cengelandreasen : yes but remember this is log differences :)
[2015-05-16 08:35:37] cengelandreasen : My floor earlier was 1.34 and Wally's 1.35 before maybe he uses something slightly diff. but now it's tad higher
[2015-05-16 09:20:18] cengelandreasen : where are the last hour creepers at
[2015-05-16 09:20:35] BitMEX_Arthur : man the market is dead
[2015-05-16 09:20:48] cengelandreasen : yup
[2015-05-16 09:21:36] cengelandreasen : this is the new price of bitcoin. official.
[2015-05-16 09:27:37] cengelandreasen : I find it interesting Xapo says most of their customers are long-term holders using hotwallet vault http://www.coindesk.com/xapo-switzerland-privacy-concerns/
[2015-05-16 09:28:07] BitMEX_Arthur : i thot they were previously in Hong Kong
[2015-05-16 09:28:07] cengelandreasen : wonder if that's an industry trend, either way seems bullish longterm if a lot of holders and hodling
[2015-05-16 09:28:14] cengelandreasen : that's ANX
[2015-05-16 09:28:15] BitMEX_Arthur : in terms of incorporation
[2015-05-16 09:28:24] cengelandreasen : people mix up ANX and Xapo
[2015-05-16 09:28:42] BitMEX_Arthur : no i remember a biz dev guy at Xapo saying they were a HK company
[2015-05-16 09:30:06] cengelandreasen : you're right: https://xapo.com/terms/
[2015-05-16 09:30:27] cengelandreasen : i guess incorporation domicile and HQ location don't have to be same?
[2015-05-16 09:30:36] BitMEX_Arthur : oh they just moved their hq
[2015-05-16 09:30:41] BitMEX_Arthur : not their incorporation domicle?
[2015-05-16 09:30:56] cengelandreasen : the article only mentions HQ yea
[2015-05-16 09:31:35] cengelandreasen : any reason why MEX is incorporated in Seychelles instead of HK ?
[2015-05-16 09:32:03] BitMEX_Arthur : 0% corporate tax, and very clearly does not regulate offshore trading businessness
[2015-05-16 09:32:12] BitMEX_Arthur : businesses
[2015-05-16 09:34:31] cengelandreasen : cool. HK seems pretty friendly so far though but better to be safe
[2015-05-16 09:35:45] cengelandreasen : they're maybe too friendly to secrecy. i saw this documentary about an Australian guy who got scammed into a fake investment thing and he was sending money to a HK bank the scammers used. and the Australian federal police couldnt even get the account info or investigate it lol
[2015-05-16 09:36:15] cengelandreasen : the scammers spent the time to draw up fake invoices and everything, while just pocketing the doe
[2015-05-16 09:40:16] cengelandreasen : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HbvY1ZDhwg
[2015-05-16 09:40:33] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-05-16 09:40:34] cengelandreasen : for anyone who is interested , the guy got obsessed and went all the way to HK to chase them down
[2015-05-16 09:40:43] cengelandreasen : made a 1 hour documentary about the whole thing haha
[2015-05-16 09:41:46] cengelandreasen : i find it amazing that the federal police couldn't even get the HK police to cooperate and hand over the info even though an open fraud case was being investigated
[2015-05-16 09:41:56] cengelandreasen : i guess you need political connections to really make things happen in that realm
[2015-05-16 09:42:44] cengelandreasen : or maybe the court process to do it is so cumbersome and expensive that procedurally it effectively bars any accountability
[2015-05-16 09:55:25] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah banks don't readily give up info
[2015-05-16 09:55:26] BitMEX_Arthur : like in the west
[2015-05-16 09:58:46] cengelandreasen : this guy managed to track the scammers down to Thailand (they were just using an HK account at HSBC they weren't based out of HK)
[2015-05-16 11:59:43] cengelandreasen : no more betsss
[2015-05-16 12:00:39] cengelandreasen : ah 1.40
[2015-05-16 12:06:37] cengelandreasen : damn i just missed those 1.60 asks fug
[2015-05-16 14:49:27] cengel : test
[2015-05-16 14:49:35] cengel : thanks BitMEX_Sam
[2015-05-16 15:19:08] BitMEX_Sam : No problem
[2015-05-16 16:19:05] goat : BitMEX_Sam: hey man, your website is redic
[2015-05-16 16:19:07] goat : i love it
[2015-05-16 16:19:35] goat : i had a quick question, what do you recommend for web stats?
[2015-05-16 16:19:53] goat : my hosting comes with Awstats and it sucks
[2015-05-16 17:25:31] BitMEX_Sam : goat: We use piwik for BitMEX because we can self-host it and no data leaves our control
[2015-05-16 17:25:40] BitMEX_Sam : But I like Google Analytics if you just want to set something up quickly
[2015-05-16 17:58:11] goat : ok cool, i have google analytics for my other site, will probably just use that
[2015-05-16 18:07:00] cengel : daym, indicative price 0.79 lol
[2015-05-16 18:07:06] cengel : market's snoozing
[2015-05-16 18:07:18] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah
[2015-05-16 18:08:50] aabtc : wow bvol below 1
[2015-05-16 18:08:56] aabtc : indicative i mean
[2015-05-16 18:09:11] cengel : yea eat up them bids ;)
[2015-05-16 18:37:49] chrudat : Happy birthday Arthur
[2015-05-16 21:16:25] cengel : the .BVOL24H index shows daily on the site, but API results are 5M interval, what format does "size" parameter take, or how do I change this interval in /trade ?
[2015-05-16 21:17:25] cengel : i tried also "binsize" as parameter
[2015-05-16 22:27:57] BitMEX_Sam : cengel: Send `{"filter": {"timestamp.minute": 720}}`
[2015-05-16 22:28:33] BitMEX_Sam : `.BVOL24H` is written every 5 min (this is useful for charting) but in the overview we only show the noon GMT price (720 minutes from 00:00 GMT) for brevity
[2015-05-17 06:15:58] cengel : my API reqs are returning 406
[2015-05-17 06:16:44] cengel : ah okay yea that makes sense, i didn't realize there was timestamp.minute key that took values
[2015-05-17 06:17:04] cengel : thought maybe it was like in /quote with different binsizes didn't think to filter
[2015-05-17 06:23:25] cengel : ah nm its hitting now
[2015-05-17 06:25:56] cengel : ty Sam
[2015-05-17 06:26:10] BitMEX_Wally : cengel: We don't currently support binsizes on indices, but it's on our todo list
[2015-05-17 06:46:08] uiop : * Topic for #bitcointraders is: OKCOIN = "win round eyes money" | <hodl> i'm going long | <gaax> pennies is a battered housewife for mr huobi | rip lycerion
[2015-05-17 07:43:54] cengel : floor at 1.23 is in
[2015-05-17 07:44:09] cengel : my model predicting 1.33 settle fwiw
[2015-05-17 07:58:32] BitMEX_Wally : My model is 1.26% :)
[2015-05-17 08:58:51] aabtc : so understimulated today
[2015-05-17 08:59:04] aabtc : wow this market is slow
[2015-05-17 10:46:01] rhk : yeah.. been like this for a couple of months.. if it carries on much longer I might need to get a real job :)
[2015-05-17 10:53:45] cengel : bbands on weekly candles are tightening big, if youre into that sort of thing. has people talking about a major breakout soon
[2015-05-17 10:59:38] BitMEX_Wally : Only 1 hour until BVOL24H settles, I stick to my 1.26% prediction
[2015-05-17 10:59:43] BitMEX_Wally : Probably will be slightly lower
[2015-05-17 11:51:59] cengel : yea looking like 1.24
[2015-05-17 11:59:59] cengel : 1 2 3 ......
[2015-05-17 12:00:18] BitMEX_Arthur : and that's all she wrote
[2015-05-17 12:01:23] BitMEX_Wally : Settled at 1.24%
[2015-05-17 13:06:01] vanrohan : Hey all, is there an easy way to download detailed intraday price data for the contracts? e.g. XBU24H. best bid and ask every 5 min?
[2015-05-17 13:06:43] BitMEX_Arthur : we have an excel plugin where you can get real time bid, ask, and last price data
[2015-05-17 13:06:44] BitMEX_Arthur : is that what you want?
[2015-05-17 13:08:45] vanrohan : Yes, that might be a start, ideally would like to see those values as a timeseries in excel
[2015-05-17 13:09:31] BitMEX_Arthur : vanrohan: https://www.bitmex.com/app/excelPlugin
[2015-05-17 13:10:13] vanrohan : thx
[2015-05-17 13:11:00] BitMEX_Wally : vanrohan: Or you can use the API: https://www.bitmex.com/api/v1/quote/bucketed?symbol=XBU24H&binSize=5m&startTime=2015-05-17T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&endTime=2015-05-18T00%3A00%3A00.000Z
[2015-05-17 13:13:37] vanrohan : That looks perfect, will investigate further.
[2015-05-17 13:13:44] vanrohan : Thanks for the quick help!
[2015-05-17 13:55:21] cengel : bah too quick for me
[2015-05-17 13:59:05] cengel : re: orderbook not vanrohan .P
[2015-05-17 14:29:20] cengel : vol bears are out this evening
[2015-05-17 15:58:02] chrudat : Happy Birthday Arthur
[2015-05-17 16:34:53] chrisxbt : nice excel plugin
[2015-05-17 16:35:43] cengel : its useful yea, i use it to present orderbook inside sheet
[2015-05-17 16:35:56] cengel : updates automatically
[2015-05-17 16:49:14] chrisxbt : wow a lot more bids above 1.5 again
[2015-05-17 16:51:39] cengel : could be a rocky start to the week!
[2015-05-17 18:13:31] goat : there is cryptsy uncertainty...
[2015-05-17 18:13:40] goat : http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/369qiz/cryptsy_freezes_withdrawalstrading/
[2015-05-17 18:31:12] cengel : looks routine to me
[2015-05-17 18:31:38] cengel : and isnt cryptsy more for shitcoins than btc ?
[2015-05-17 18:33:04] goat : yeah
[2015-05-17 18:33:10] goat : thats why im waiting before taking a position
[2015-05-17 18:38:25] cengel : not unusual for that kind of maintenance to go on a sunday
[2015-05-17 19:33:55] goat : idk they usually give warning
[2015-05-17 19:33:59] goat : its back now though
[2015-05-17 19:48:35] chrisxbt : meh
[2015-05-17 19:49:01] chrisxbt : and that headline
[2015-05-17 20:28:03] cengel : another day of zZzZz so far
[2015-05-17 20:46:05] cengel : wait so this new "capping logic" thing means that bankrupt positions have to be filled before price will move ?
[2015-05-17 20:46:21] cengel : thats different than the circuit breaker cap per session
[2015-05-17 20:55:33] BitMEX_Arthur : yes if a trader is bankrupt then his positions must be filled or, he must deposit more margin
[2015-05-17 20:55:33] BitMEX_Arthur : https://blog.bitmex.com/
[2015-05-17 20:55:50] BitMEX_Arthur : https://blog.bitmex.com/capped-price-logic-explained/
[2015-05-17 20:56:01] BitMEX_Arthur : this explains it in much more detail for you
[2015-05-17 21:04:28] cengel : k
[2015-05-17 21:04:53] cengel : seems like socialized loss just paying for it in a different way
[2015-05-17 21:12:38] BitMEX_Arthur : there are no losses to be socialised
[2015-05-17 21:15:20] cengel : except for the poor guy who fills the bankrupt trader at a price too high or low
[2015-05-17 21:15:33] cengel : but the platform warns trader so its fine :)
[2015-05-17 21:17:19] cengel : "Traders placing orders above or below these limits are notified upon attempting an order. They can then make the decision whether they wish to trade the contract or not..."
[2015-05-17 21:47:07] chrisxbt : yup its quite similar to socialized losses
[2015-05-17 21:57:53] chrisxbt : The only plus is that your funds aren't locked down.
[2015-05-17 21:58:41] chrisxbt : and if you close before a system loss you aren't faced with a socialized loss.
[2015-05-17 22:01:03] BitMEX_Arthur : under a socialised loss system, if you show a profit regardless of when you closed during a contract period it is subject to ex post tax
[2015-05-17 22:03:02] chrisxbt : I'd like to say the fair price thing is a good idea
[2015-05-17 22:03:40] BitMEX_Arthur : it's a useful measure to stop certain types of manipulation
[2015-05-17 22:04:08] chrisxbt : My point lies with the multiple traders example
[2015-05-17 22:07:24] chrisxbt : Let's say the price jumps up
[2015-05-17 22:07:31] chrisxbt : With the cap system price would settle at 115
[2015-05-17 22:13:28] chrisxbt : Trader A - -0.15 BTC , Trader B - +0.3 , Trader C - -0.15 btc
[2015-05-17 22:13:44] chrisxbt : Oh you have a slight mistake using 1,000 and 100 contracts but I assumed they were equal
[2015-05-17 22:14:13] chrisxbt : The problem with the multiple scenarios is that Trader B could've made more money without a system loss.
[2015-05-17 22:15:36] BitMEX_Arthur : do you mean with a system loss?
[2015-05-17 22:15:50] chrisxbt : without
[2015-05-17 22:16:39] chrisxbt : Trader A, -0.35 BTC, Trader B - +0.35 BTC , Trader C - 0.15 BTC
[2015-05-17 22:17:07] chrisxbt : system ±0 btc
[2015-05-17 22:18:37] BitMEX_Arthur : trader C goes bankrupt at $115
[2015-05-17 22:18:49] BitMEX_Arthur : at $120 he loses -0.2 XBT
[2015-05-17 22:18:53] chrisxbt : meant trader C - -0.15 BTC
[2015-05-17 22:18:58] BitMEX_Arthur : but he only put in 0.15
[2015-05-17 22:19:03] BitMEX_Arthur : i'm talking without cap
[2015-05-17 22:19:24] chrisxbt : okay your system
[2015-05-17 22:20:11] BitMEX_Arthur : so the 0.05 XBT needs to come from the exchange or other traders
[2015-05-17 22:20:11] chrisxbt : Trader A - -0.15 btc, Trader B - +0.30 BTC, Trader C - -0.15 BTC
[2015-05-17 22:20:21] chrisxbt : sorry I used the numbers wrong
[2015-05-17 22:20:25] BitMEX_Arthur : nw
[2015-05-17 22:20:27] chrisxbt : agreed with your system
[2015-05-17 22:20:44] chrisxbt : okay for socialized loss system
[2015-05-17 22:21:41] chrisxbt : Trader A - -0.35 btc, Trader B - +0.5 BTC, Trader C - -0.15 BTC
[2015-05-17 22:21:48] chrisxbt : that's how it results
[2015-05-17 22:22:27] BitMEX_Arthur : is this at $120 price?
[2015-05-17 22:22:44] chrisxbt : its impossible to implement without a socialized loss
[2015-05-17 22:22:50] chrisxbt : system
[2015-05-17 22:23:20] BitMEX_Arthur : B just doesn't get the full gain, it's not impossible it's just a choice of the max gain
[2015-05-17 22:24:06] chrisxbt : Because its a bit more complicated then that result
[2015-05-17 22:24:21] BitMEX_Arthur : what do you mean
[2015-05-17 22:24:37] BitMEX_Arthur : the money comes from the exchange or other traders
[2015-05-17 22:24:59] chrisxbt : At settlement, Trader A - -0.35 , Trader B: + 1 - 0.5 , Trader C: - 0.15 , Exchange: -0.5 + 0.5
[2015-05-17 22:25:28] BitMEX_Arthur : i don't follow
[2015-05-17 22:25:39] BitMEX_Arthur : that for socialised loss system
[2015-05-17 22:25:41] BitMEX_Arthur : ?
[2015-05-17 22:25:43] chrisxbt : do you see the difference between both scenarios? Both have a 0 BTC exchange loss. But in one scenario Trader B made 43% more BTC
[2015-05-17 22:25:52] chrisxbt : yes socialized loss
[2015-05-17 22:25:59] BitMEX_Arthur : so are you taking equity from A
[2015-05-17 22:26:01] BitMEX_Arthur : ?
[2015-05-17 22:26:08] BitMEX_Arthur : how does B get this extra return?
[2015-05-17 22:26:21] chrisxbt : yes you take it from A which is fair
[2015-05-17 22:26:42] BitMEX_Arthur : why is that fair
[2015-05-17 22:26:47] BitMEX_Arthur : C owes B money at $120
[2015-05-17 22:26:48] BitMEX_Arthur : but can't pay
[2015-05-17 22:26:57] BitMEX_Arthur : so you take from A, who properly capitalised his position
[2015-05-17 22:26:59] chrisxbt : That's if it settles anywhere > 135
[2015-05-17 22:27:21] BitMEX_Arthur : but the fact remains that C owes the system money that he will never pay
[2015-05-17 22:27:26] BitMEX_Arthur : and you penalise A
[2015-05-17 22:28:11] chrisxbt : I could also do a situation where it settles between 115 and 135
[2015-05-17 22:28:35] BitMEX_Arthur : do you see my point that C owes the system money
[2015-05-17 22:28:45] chrisxbt : Which is paid by B
[2015-05-17 22:29:22] chrisxbt : A is never penalized, he gets settled at the correct settlement price or bankruptcy price
[2015-05-17 22:29:48] chrisxbt : B is 'penalized' to pay for the system loss but he still makes more profit
[2015-05-17 22:30:53] BitMEX_Arthur : Ok i see where you are coming from, our biggest criticism of the socialised loss system is that it's not transparent
[2015-05-17 22:31:16] chrisxbt : But margin calls are public
[2015-05-17 22:31:43] BitMEX_Arthur : you see what you are given
[2015-05-17 22:32:12] chrisxbt : How about you change how settlement is calculated
[2015-05-17 22:32:33] BitMEX_Arthur : what is your suggestion?
[2015-05-17 22:32:35] chrisxbt : How about a socialized win system
[2015-05-17 22:32:49] BitMEX_Arthur : pls elaborat
[2015-05-17 22:32:59] chrisxbt : Losers are settled at the fair settlement price
[2015-05-17 22:33:39] chrisxbt : Winners are settled at cap, but they get a fair distribution of money from losers.
[2015-05-17 22:35:01] chrisxbt : It gets a bit complicated
[2015-05-17 22:35:14] BitMEX_Arthur : give me an exampmle
[2015-05-17 22:36:00] chrisxbt : when you have winners that are actually losers at fair settlement price
[2015-05-17 22:36:20] chrisxbt : Okay lets use your multiple users example
[2015-05-17 22:36:57] BitMEX_Arthur : price settles at $120 how do you handle the shortfall
[2015-05-17 22:37:00] chrisxbt : Fair settlement price is $120, cap is $115
[2015-05-17 22:38:03] chrisxbt : Trader A gets settlement at 120. -0.2 BTC.
[2015-05-17 22:38:21] chrisxbt : Trader C is settled at $115
[2015-05-17 22:38:35] chrisxbt : -0.15
[2015-05-17 22:39:32] chrisxbt : Trader B is settled at $115 , +0.3 BTC but they get a socialized win of 0.05 btc
[2015-05-17 22:40:08] chrisxbt : They get 17% more then with a capped system
[2015-05-17 22:41:28] chrisxbt : make sense?
[2015-05-17 22:41:40] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah i see that, let's add another factor
[2015-05-17 22:41:56] BitMEX_Arthur : trader D wants to place an order at $120 after the cap of $115 is in place
[2015-05-17 22:41:59] BitMEX_Arthur : how do you handle that
[2015-05-17 22:44:26] chrisxbt : that would also mean someone is willing to short at $120
[2015-05-17 22:44:30] chrisxbt : lets see
[2015-05-17 22:46:45] chrisxbt : One thing is that you'd need to be transparent with all the margin calls. And if anyone else gets margin called between $115 and $120
[2015-05-17 22:48:29] chrisxbt : And realize that he'll get settled at $115
[2015-05-17 22:50:53] chrisxbt : + socialized winnings.
[2015-05-17 22:55:21] BitMEX_Arthur : your settlement solution is interesting
[2015-05-17 22:56:27] BitMEX_Arthur : but nothing is socialised
[2015-05-17 22:57:03] BitMEX_Arthur : A pays what he owes from 115-120 however he can't exit the position at $115
[2015-05-17 22:57:24] BitMEX_Arthur : need to think on that
[2015-05-17 22:58:23] chrisxbt : yes that's important
[2015-05-17 22:59:40] chrisxbt : is that a flaw of the cap system that he can't long at 116?
[2015-05-17 23:00:15] BitMEX_Arthur : well it gets tricky if you let someone trade above the cap
[2015-05-17 23:02:30] BitMEX_Arthur : the problem is that A is unable to close his position from 115-120, and new traders are unable to place orders from 115-120
[2015-05-17 23:02:31] chrisxbt : The tricky part is shorters who are in profit
[2015-05-17 23:03:02] BitMEX_Arthur : A would rather lose $1 if D could place an order at 116 than the maximum $5
[2015-05-17 23:03:54] chrisxbt : actually it would be fine
[2015-05-17 23:06:29] chrisxbt : So I think you have a good point that people who place buy orders above the lowest margin call price (not closing shorts) should be warned that they'll get settled at the lowest margin call price and the socialized win wouldn't be big enough
[2015-05-17 23:08:33] chrisxbt : Actually I have a better solution, why don't you just implement deleveraging?
[2015-05-17 23:09:37] BitMEX_Arthur : how does that work?
[2015-05-17 23:10:03] chrisxbt : Trader B would just have 1000 contracts closed at 115
[2015-05-17 23:12:52] chrisxbt : That's sort of my point, if no one else is willing to short, Trader B has an incentive to close half his position at 115. He'll actually make more money.
[2015-05-17 23:13:44] chrisxbt : So two problems with the cap system.
[2015-05-17 23:13:56] chrisxbt : What if Trader B is multiple people.
[2015-05-17 23:14:52] chrisxbt : Isn't that a big problem? Trader B can wait until right before settlement to close at 115.
[2015-05-17 23:15:19] chrisxbt : Then the cap is lifted but Trader A didn't have a chance to place an order before settlement
[2015-05-17 23:16:31] chrisxbt : So one problem is that the only person who has an incentive to short is the people who are in profit and during that time the losers are unable to close their positions.
[2015-05-17 23:21:38] chrisxbt : The other problem is okay, we realize that Trader B can always get more profit. Why always? Because total longs will always be > or = to the position blocking the cap (short margin call). The question is how do they distribute their winnings? Everyone closes the same percentage against the cap.
[2015-05-17 23:24:08] chrisxbt : understand those two flaws?
[2015-05-17 23:24:36] BitMEX_Arthur : on the first point about people going short
[2015-05-17 23:24:53] BitMEX_Arthur : if trader d wants to go short and is willing to take c's position that is net positive for everyone
[2015-05-17 23:25:23] BitMEX_Arthur : D knows he won't get filled above $115, but if he's willing to sell at $115 then great
[2015-05-17 23:25:36] BitMEX_Arthur : he made that decision with full knowledge of the payoff scenarios
[2015-05-17 23:26:59] chrisxbt : well if we settle below the margin cap then their's no problem
[2015-05-17 23:27:16] BitMEX_Arthur : forget settlement
[2015-05-17 23:27:19] BitMEX_Arthur : we are locked at $115
[2015-05-17 23:27:31] BitMEX_Arthur : trader D is willing to take on C's positions at that price and sells to C