This is a mirror of the original BitMEX trollbox archive that used to be online here.
BitMEX disabled their archive after the DDOS attack so I have decided to make my mirror publicly available.

Well now, a few days after I made this mirror available to the public, the original archive from BitMEX is online again.
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[2015-05-13 08:32:50] chrisxbt : yeah the value is slightly off which is bad for making decisions off of
[2015-05-13 08:33:38] chrisxbt : but the other settlements have no deviation
[2015-05-13 08:34:16] BitMEX_Wally : The best thing to do is look at the Indicative Settlement Price on the `BVOL24H` future
[2015-05-13 08:34:38] BitMEX_Wally : That is calculated from 12:00 to current
[2015-05-13 08:34:50] chrisxbt : oh you have that published now?
[2015-05-13 08:34:53] BitMEX_Wally : i.e. 247 samples, giving 1.36% at the moment
[2015-05-13 08:35:01] BitMEX_Wally : Look at the Instrument Table
[2015-05-13 08:35:05] BitMEX_Wally : Use the `>>` to expand it
[2015-05-13 08:35:09] BitMEX_Wally : Scroll to the right...
[2015-05-13 08:37:37] chrisxbt : where is the button?
[2015-05-13 08:37:52] BitMEX_Wally : Left hand side of the table
[2015-05-13 08:38:13] chrisxbt : which table
[2015-05-13 08:38:18] BitMEX_Wally : The Instruments table
[2015-05-13 08:38:23] BitMEX_Arthur : all the way at the bottom
[2015-05-13 08:38:47] chrisxbt : wow that is really hidden
[2015-05-13 08:39:01] BitMEX_Wally : There's a whole load of data there
[2015-05-13 08:39:02] BitMEX_Arthur : chrisxbt: We know we are working on displaying this info better
[2015-05-13 08:43:55] chrisxbt : 2.32. 2.13 1.94 4.16 2.47 2.7 1.84 2.73
[2015-05-13 08:44:16] BitMEX_Arthur : what's that
[2015-05-13 08:44:21] chrisxbt : past 7 settlements using tv script
[2015-05-13 08:44:26] chrisxbt : 8
[2015-05-13 08:45:26] chrisxbt : so some are more off than others
[2015-05-13 08:45:32] chrisxbt : anyways I'll use your estimate
[2015-05-13 08:45:34] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah
[2015-05-13 08:46:19] BitMEX_Arthur : chrisxbt: after the hk conference is over i'm going to do some stats work on a model to attempt to market make this thing and i'll release it
[2015-05-13 08:46:53] cengelandreasen : the sample distribution is pretty uninteresting, it becomes, like someone mentioned earlier, more like binary options
[2015-05-13 08:47:15] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah
[2015-05-13 08:49:12] chrisxbt : yeah I mentioned that, risk vs reward, odds
[2015-05-13 08:49:15] cengelandreasen : but even without major deviations from fair value it should be an interesting contract to play
[2015-05-13 08:49:44] chrisxbt : what do you mean by fair value?
[2015-05-13 08:50:06] cengelandreasen : the indicative price
[2015-05-13 08:50:39] cengelandreasen : like earlier when it was 1.2-1.3, but bids were up all the way to 3
[2015-05-13 08:50:45] chrisxbt : Well during a flat market, there's usually going to be a time based premium on indicative price, that is fair value
[2015-05-13 08:51:12] cengelandreasen : yes depending how far from settlement
[2015-05-13 08:51:26] chrisxbt : chance of it going down vs going up
[2015-05-13 08:53:35] cengelandreasen : yea but then the question is how good past volatility predicts current. btc tends to have serious volatility clustering features, more than normal instruments
[2015-05-13 08:54:07] cengelandreasen : so when it rains it pours and when it sleeps it snores
[2015-05-13 08:54:08] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah i think XBT has volatility phases
[2015-05-13 08:54:18] BitMEX_Arthur : we are in major snorefest right now
[2015-05-13 08:54:48] cengelandreasen : can (and will) change fast though
[2015-05-13 08:55:41] cengelandreasen : past couple weekends have been relatively exciting, might be worth picking up cheap BVOL contracts on sat/sun if it repeats
[2015-05-13 08:56:12] chrisxbt : 2.2 - 4 in two hours
[2015-05-13 09:09:37] chrisxbt : anyways, yeah we're in a major snorefest
[2015-05-13 12:38:42] cengelandreasen : yep, has to end sometime though
[2015-05-13 14:53:27] cengelandreasen : got bids on BVOL well above indicative !
[2015-05-13 15:15:20] BitMEX_Sam : Working on getting that indicative price somewhere easier to reference
[2015-05-13 17:03:05] chrisxbt : So is there any limit up problems?
[2015-05-13 17:03:29] chrisxbt : Is there a limit up barrier?
[2015-05-13 17:03:37] BitMEX_Arthur : what do you mean
[2015-05-13 17:03:54] chrisxbt : for BVOL24H it says 1.89
[2015-05-13 19:27:52] BitMEX_Sam : FYI indicative settlement changes coming to BitMEX soon. It is live on testnet, if you want an easy way to reference it please go to https://testnet.bitmex.com/app/trade and select BVOL24H.
[2015-05-13 19:29:42] BitMEX_Sam : The changes are all aesthetic, no rule changes to how any of the contracts work.
[2015-05-13 19:38:31] cengelandreasen : which panel is the indicative price shown on
[2015-05-13 19:38:53] BitMEX_Sam : On testnet it's shown on the instrument status panel on the top right
[2015-05-13 19:38:58] BitMEX_Sam : The one that shows the instrument's symbol in big letters
[2015-05-13 19:39:11] cengelandreasen : ah okay i see now, under the bid/offer
[2015-05-13 19:40:21] cengelandreasen : yea thats cool
[2015-05-13 21:21:28] chrisxbt : still there?
[2015-05-13 21:22:18] chrisxbt : cool see it
[2015-05-13 21:30:13] cengelandreasen : btc has been sooo flattt
[2015-05-13 21:33:13] cengelandreasen : but too early for me to wanna fill any bids at this level
[2015-05-13 22:09:38] cengelandreasen : finally some action, nice little dump
[2015-05-13 22:31:24] chrisxbt : yup nice volatility
[2015-05-13 23:24:10] BitMEX_Sam : Wow. Some news, or just typical market skittishness?
[2015-05-13 23:56:30] chrisxbt : Interested to see what happens when the next session opens
[2015-05-14 00:04:24] aabtc : jesus shouldve longed bvol
[2015-05-14 00:06:14] BitMEX_Arthur : it's going to drift back
[2015-05-14 00:17:21] chrisxbt : how is limit up calculated?
[2015-05-14 00:18:18] BitMEX_Sam : It's 40% up/down from last session close
[2015-05-14 00:18:34] BitMEX_Sam : We're working on loosening it, BVOL24H is a new type of product for us so it requires new rules
[2015-05-14 00:21:45] chrisxbt : or you could shorten sessions
[2015-05-14 00:22:47] chrisxbt : its understandable that you don't want manipulation
[2015-05-14 00:23:12] aabtc : yeah bvol should have its own bvol lol... didn't realize it could double or halve so easily
[2015-05-14 00:23:31] BitMEX_Arthur : that's the beauty of it
[2015-05-14 00:24:10] aabtc : volception
[2015-05-14 00:25:22] chrisxbt : That's like VIX options
[2015-05-14 00:25:36] chrisxbt : Implied Volatility of Volatility
[2015-05-14 00:27:15] chrisxbt : Yeah next session limit up will be 3.70
[2015-05-14 00:37:38] aabtc : yeah i have to tinker with it a bit before promoting its profitmaking virtues to everyone
[2015-05-14 00:37:44] aabtc : been really distracted and busy lately
[2015-05-14 00:38:38] aabtc : anyone got a spreadsheet or something set up? if this drop totally retraces whats the ballpark for bvol24?
[2015-05-14 00:41:48] BitMEX_Arthur : the direction isn't important but how fast or slow
[2015-05-14 00:41:55] BitMEX_Arthur : the price moves up or down
[2015-05-14 00:42:22] BitMEX_Arthur : so if u think it will be snorefest for the next few hours then BVOL should fall
[2015-05-14 00:46:00] aabtc : basically an identical counter move back up
[2015-05-14 00:56:59] chrisxbt : volatility will actually increase if we go back up
[2015-05-14 00:57:36] chrisxbt : If it only goes up in a perfectly straight line , volatility would be 0
[2015-05-14 01:06:19] BitMEX_Arthur : not necessarily it depends on how fast we go up
[2015-05-14 01:07:49] chrisxbt : Oh what I meant is that 24 hour rolling volatility would increase
[2015-05-14 01:07:55] chrisxbt : if we went up
[2015-05-14 01:12:43] BitMEX_Arthur : We have amended limits for `BVOL24H`
[2015-05-14 01:14:38] chrisxbt : and my other point is that if we went up 5% every 5 minutes volatility is zero
[2015-05-14 01:15:43] chrisxbt : how does it work now?
[2015-05-14 01:21:52] chrisxbt : BitMEX_Arthur: what's the limit now
[2015-05-14 01:22:07] BitMEX_Arthur : limit up / down 5.67% / 1.25%
[2015-05-14 01:22:12] chrisxbt : i mean how does the limit work
[2015-05-14 01:22:26] BitMEX_Arthur : that is the session limit up / down
[2015-05-14 01:22:36] chrisxbt : how is it calculated
[2015-05-14 01:23:00] BitMEX_Arthur : Close price of the previous 8 hours session
[2015-05-14 01:24:00] BitMEX_Arthur : multiplied by the limit up / down percentage
[2015-05-14 01:29:22] BombaUcigasa : thanks again for the chat @BitMEX_Arthur
[2015-05-14 01:29:41] BitMEX_Arthur : Happy to have you on board
[2015-05-14 01:29:49] BombaUcigasa : do you happen to have a link for the tradingview volatility pine script?
[2015-05-14 01:30:07] BombaUcigasa : mine says ~3.0 now
[2015-05-14 01:33:40] chrisxbt : The pinescript can be up to ± 0.1%
[2015-05-14 01:37:48] BitMEX_Sam : The pinescript is inaccurate sometimes. Use the indicativeSettlePrice in the instruments table
[2015-05-14 01:37:57] BitMEX_Sam : It's also published in the widget on https://testnet.bitmex.com/app/trade
[2015-05-14 01:38:04] BitMEX_Sam : That will make it to production in a day or so after further testing
[2015-05-14 01:38:24] BitMEX_Sam : You'll see it in the instrument details widget on the top left. BVOL24H indicative settlement price is the same here and on testnet
[2015-05-14 01:49:01] BombaUcigasa : Ok, found it, I'll keep an eye on it
[2015-05-14 02:34:06] chrisxbt : Interesting that you decided to uncap BVOL.
[2015-05-14 02:34:50] BitMEX_Sam : chrisxbt: That's a display bug, deploying a fix for it shortly
[2015-05-14 02:49:48] BitMEX_Sam : Okay, you should see it properly capped now
[2015-05-14 04:37:09] cengelandreasen : ack, cant find that snap .XBT_5M series, anyone know where it is ?
[2015-05-14 04:37:47] cengelandreasen : and does the indicative settlement price calculate only based on price action from the day or rolled from previous day ?
[2015-05-14 04:38:19] cengelandreasen : https://www.bitmex.com/app/index/.XBT_5M
[2015-05-14 04:38:22] cengelandreasen : found it, was under indices
[2015-05-14 04:38:29] BitMEX_Arthur : :)
[2015-05-14 04:39:05] cengelandreasen : theres a pretty big deviation from the pinescript in TV so im going to just compute differnetly
[2015-05-14 04:40:33] cengelandreasen : so, do i take the past 288 observations, or only the observations from the day cutoff, to get the indicative settle price at any one point ?
[2015-05-14 04:40:54] BitMEX_Arthur : take from 20:00
[2015-05-14 04:41:00] BitMEX_Arthur : i mean 12:00 GMT day previous
[2015-05-14 04:41:19] BitMEX_Arthur : you will see it in your server time zone when you look at the index prices
[2015-05-14 04:42:15] cengelandreasen : and then just adjust the sqrt(numobs) to reflect obs < 288
[2015-05-14 04:42:54] cengelandreasen : or am i failing stats 101
[2015-05-14 04:43:06] BitMEX_Arthur : i would just use sort(288)
[2015-05-14 04:43:11] BitMEX_Arthur : sqrt
[2015-05-14 04:47:03] BitMEX_Wally : Correct
[2015-05-14 04:47:20] BitMEX_Wally : sqrt[288] is to turn a 5 minutely sample into a daily vol
[2015-05-14 04:47:58] cengelandreasen : oky so even with only 2 snapped prices you use this to dailyize (?)
[2015-05-14 04:48:16] BitMEX_Wally : Actually, I wait until 6 hour have passed
[2015-05-14 04:48:33] BitMEX_Wally : Between 0-6 hours I just use .BVOL24H for the indicative settle price
[2015-05-14 04:48:42] BitMEX_Wally : Then between 6-24 hours I use the calculation from 12:00
[2015-05-14 04:48:55] BitMEX_Wally : So there's always minimum of 72 samples
[2015-05-14 04:49:23] BitMEX_Wally : Right now, from 12:00 UTC to now there are 202 samples, and I calculate an indicative settle price of 3.43
[2015-05-14 04:49:39] cengelandreasen : yea
[2015-05-14 04:50:11] cengelandreasen : this is probably the most interesting session to trade BVOL, because it's a play on whether things stay calm or more explosive movements
[2015-05-14 04:50:19] cengelandreasen : nobody wants to fill bids in the first session
[2015-05-14 04:51:12] BitMEX_Arthur : the first 8 hours are usually sparsely traded
[2015-05-14 04:52:34] cengelandreasen : i mean im willing to put bids above indicative but if nobody is biting at 1.6, 1.7, cant push it when we have been so quiet past weeks
[2015-05-14 04:53:10] cengelandreasen : but historically those are really low so i dont blame anyone for not wanting to fill
[2015-05-14 04:53:20] cengelandreasen : low probability i mean
[2015-05-14 04:53:36] BitMEX_Arthur : the trend is your friend until it aint
[2015-05-14 04:53:50] Swedishnut : Anyone else positive about the BTC price in the near future?
[2015-05-14 04:54:56] BitMEX_Arthur : i"m on record saying sub $200 in 2Q
[2015-05-14 04:55:49] cengelandreasen : swedishnut, i am always positive because i'm always net long
[2015-05-14 04:56:06] cengelandreasen : but that doens't mean i leave my cold storage naked
[2015-05-14 04:56:49] Swedishnut : agreed. What are your thoughts on the BVOL24H?
[2015-05-14 04:57:05] cengelandreasen : Arthur you mentioned before doing some more spreadsheets, were you also going to do something for BVOL?
[2015-05-14 04:57:26] BitMEX_Arthur : Yes I will put an excel sheet out soon
[2015-05-14 04:57:27] cengelandreasen : swedishnut, i think we will be quiet going into the day, sold some contracts in upper 3's
[2015-05-14 04:58:02] cengelandreasen : maybe we settle in the low 3's
[2015-05-14 04:58:26] Swedishnut : quiet? I am new to this platform. I bought some just to understand it at 10 for 3.10 what is the possible outcome?
[2015-05-14 04:58:52] Swedishnut : Background. I mine and have holdings
[2015-05-14 04:59:04] BitMEX_Arthur : it's a volatility contract, if the price doesn't move the price of `BVOL24H` drops
[2015-05-14 04:59:05] cengelandreasen : well quiet meaning not a lot price action, meaning lower BVOL
[2015-05-14 04:59:30] cengelandreasen : but i'm just speculating of course, $10 dump incoming 1 hour for all i know
[2015-05-14 04:59:55] Swedishnut : gotcha. Ty. So if it is greater in average for 24 than the bvol then it ____ up or down?
[2015-05-14 05:00:36] cengelandreasen : it computes the distribution based on log price differences between 5Min, and uses the stdev as volatility there
[2015-05-14 05:01:20] cengelandreasen : but i recommend running like mini simulations with different price drop scenarios so you can see how the BVOL reacts and has a sort of persistent bump for the day when theres a fat move
[2015-05-14 05:02:21] Swedishnut : cengelandreasen: I'll do more simulations here shortly ty for the recommendations
[2015-05-14 05:03:01] cengelandreasen : i should say not just price drop but any price action
[2015-05-14 05:03:15] BitMEX_Arthur : it's about price change not about direction as you said
[2015-05-14 05:03:15] cengelandreasen : swedishnut, are you familiar with how equity traders use VIX?
[2015-05-14 05:04:26] cengelandreasen : cant really use it as a hedge like they do on 24Hr so it's different from this
[2015-05-14 05:11:27] cengelandreasen : like if there was weeklies i can envision going long, say, XBTK15, and then long BVOL7days for protection in case of dump
[2015-05-14 05:11:45] cengelandreasen : and if it pumps you get added benefit too
[2015-05-14 05:11:58] cengelandreasen : because BTC loves to make it inexplicable random $10 jumps
[2015-05-14 05:15:37] cengelandreasen : so how did the conference go today Arthur ?
[2015-05-14 05:15:44] BitMEX_Arthur : I'm there now
[2015-05-14 05:15:47] chrisxbt : its about standard deviation of the price changes
[2015-05-14 05:15:58] BitMEX_Arthur : it's ok, lots of the same faces
[2015-05-14 05:16:30] cengelandreasen : i heard you met or were on the same panel as Reggie Middleton, do you have any thoughts about his product? (maybe you dont want to speak about it publicly)
[2015-05-14 05:17:26] BitMEX_Arthur : The problem with smart contracts are they are too bespoke
[2015-05-14 05:17:35] BitMEX_Arthur : so they will lack liquidity that a centralised platform like ours will bring
[2015-05-14 05:18:17] chrisxbt : A lot of contracts were open recently
[2015-05-14 05:18:36] cengelandreasen : on ultracoin?
[2015-05-14 05:18:37] BitMEX_Arthur : i haven't really taken a deep look through Reggie's platform
[2015-05-14 05:18:44] BitMEX_Arthur : so i can't speak that specifically
[2015-05-14 05:18:57] cengelandreasen : it seems to have some aspects of centralization anyway too, with how it gets price feeds to settle them p2p
[2015-05-14 05:19:00] chrisxbt : Yeah, the good thing about his platform is it allows settlement between two parties
[2015-05-14 05:19:16] cengelandreasen : but the settlement is determined centrally through some price feed which could be corrupted, right?
[2015-05-14 05:19:20] chrisxbt : It's called veritaseum now
[2015-05-14 05:19:40] cengelandreasen : haha, from one shit name to another, marginally less shit name :)
[2015-05-14 05:20:08] cengelandreasen : cheap shot, name is irrelevant its just style
[2015-05-14 05:20:21] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-05-14 05:20:32] BitMEX_Arthur : SHILL SHILL SHILL
[2015-05-14 05:20:33] BitMEX_Arthur : :)
[2015-05-14 05:20:48] cengelandreasen : from what i saw in the platform too it looks rinky dink as fuck
[2015-05-14 05:21:06] cengelandreasen : i also heard he was going to try to patent aspects of smartcontract/blockchain settlement tech which makes me vomit in my mouth
[2015-05-14 05:21:27] chrisxbt : Well its sort of about the backbone, and infrastructure, you could create apps that look better
[2015-05-14 05:23:35] cengelandreasen : yea i'm excited about any project in the bitcoin scene, but something smells off with him (just a feeling)
[2015-05-14 05:26:15] cengelandreasen : and i'm a big proponent of decentralization in general, but there are certain market functions better centralized
[2015-05-14 05:50:16] cengelandreasen : London is still open the next couple days but in Europe we have holiday today and tomorrow
[2015-05-14 06:17:23] chrisxbt : what for?
[2015-05-14 06:17:51] chrisxbt : cengelandreasen: .
[2015-05-14 06:19:32] cengelandreasen : some sort of jesus-related holiday
[2015-05-14 06:26:35] chrisxbt : Is there a hotkey for cancelling all orders?
[2015-05-14 07:43:55] BitMEX_Arthur : `Open Orders` panel
[2015-05-14 08:18:22] cengelandreasen : its times like this i refresh my charts to make sure my screen isnt frozen
[2015-05-14 08:21:55] germanjew : maybe a last updated counter would help?
[2015-05-14 08:22:11] germanjew : like on bitcoinwisdom
[2015-05-14 08:23:09] chrisxbt : germanjew: I think he's joking about the sideways
[2015-05-14 08:24:40] germanjew : sure, but when everything stands still there is always that small change that something is broken and not updating correctly :)
[2015-05-14 08:24:51] germanjew : chance*
[2015-05-14 08:45:03] cengelandreasen : :)
[2015-05-14 08:49:24] cengelandreasen : Arthur, out of curiosity, how would you have handled the fake Finex volume (and volatility) where trades were reversed etc, and the impact on BVOL?
[2015-05-14 08:49:33] cengelandreasen : or Sam or anyone from Mex
[2015-05-14 09:02:07] cengelandreasen : we're about to break <3 on indicative on BVOL. 3 hr to settlement
[2015-05-14 09:02:18] cengelandreasen : test
[2015-05-14 09:02:30] cengelandreasen : oh that's an interesting bug <test test
[2015-05-14 09:02:43] cengelandreasen : just by typing "<" cuts off the message
[2015-05-14 09:04:44] cengelandreasen : Alt 60
[2015-05-14 09:04:57] cengelandreasen : testing A > B C
[2015-05-14 09:05:03] cengelandreasen : testing A < B C
[2015-05-14 09:05:13] cengelandreasen : testing A <BC
[2015-05-14 09:05:42] cengelandreasen : sorry to flood, the text cuts off when you type any text next to Alt 60
[2015-05-14 09:06:01] cengelandreasen : thought i was in testnet :)
[2015-05-14 09:07:15] cengelandreasen : it must think when you open bracket that it is code
[2015-05-14 09:07:50] cengelandreasen : or tag
[2015-05-14 10:40:43] MeeGee : hi
[2015-05-14 10:40:52] MeeGee : anyone here?
[2015-05-14 11:43:27] BombaUcigasa : 2.87
[2015-05-14 11:49:54] cengelandreasen : arb dat shit
[2015-05-14 11:53:23] BombaUcigasa : we could use a graphical orderbook :D
[2015-05-14 12:00:53] BitMEX_Arthur : Hi meegee what is your question
[2015-05-14 12:20:12] BitMEX_Arthur : cengelandreasen: we have a clause for Market Disruption Events (MDE)
[2015-05-14 12:20:32] cengelandreasen : so you just take the data as is
[2015-05-14 12:20:48] BitMEX_Arthur : unless we fell that prices do not reflect reality
[2015-05-14 12:21:03] BitMEX_Arthur : or there is some problem with the exchange, DDOS, bad feed etc
[2015-05-14 12:21:49] cengelandreasen : you wouldn't consider the snafu they had with phantom orders last week to qualify ?
[2015-05-14 12:22:20] BitMEX_Arthur : well have the released a definitive cause for the alleged price problems
[2015-05-14 12:22:26] BitMEX_Arthur : because i think all the trades stood
[2015-05-14 12:22:48] cengelandreasen : yea zane described it as a backend failure and they reversed tons of trades and refunded people
[2015-05-14 12:23:47] cengelandreasen : i guess everything is case by case basis
[2015-05-14 12:23:56] BitMEX_Arthur : exactly
[2015-05-14 12:24:31] cengelandreasen : if only you launched a little earlier it would have been a good test of your MDE criteria
[2015-05-14 13:46:02] cengelandreasen : anyone recommend a JSON parser that's already working in VBA for Excel ?
[2015-05-14 13:47:54] BitMEX_Sam : you should be able to eval() it in JScript if all else fails
[2015-05-14 13:48:42] BitMEX_Sam : Otherwise it looks like this is well maintained: https://github.com/VBA-tools/VBA-JSON
[2015-05-14 13:48:58] cengelandreasen : I tried that one and had some problems with type mismatches and stuff, i think because i have a newer Office
[2015-05-14 13:49:24] cengelandreasen : i was almost just going to use perl to parse but then i cant avoid VBA if i want excel interaction
[2015-05-14 13:50:59] cengelandreasen : that same guy made a bigger package called VBA Web i'm playing wiht now
[2015-05-14 13:51:12] BitMEX_Sam : I don't do much Excel work anymore but I think you can use JS or Python instead of VBA now
[2015-05-14 13:51:35] BitMEX_Sam : Something with the new apps feature
[2015-05-14 16:22:30] chrisxbt : Hm, asks below indicative
[2015-05-14 16:29:48] Swedishnut : am I reading it right that there has been about 5x more volume in the last 24 hours than normal? Getting this info off of Bitcoinwisdom charts though
[2015-05-14 16:30:14] chrisxbt : where?
[2015-05-14 16:31:13] Swedishnut : nvm I was reading it wrong. ! day 7 day 30 day volumes. All up but not 5 x up
[2015-05-14 16:32:59] Swedishnut : Looks like the sell yesterday has caused a bit of a buying spree. My guess. Still not big players but lots of little buys I'm seeing
[2015-05-14 16:39:19] cengelandreasen : its actually at about 1.08 by my measure
[2015-05-14 16:40:51] cengelandreasen : which is only calculating the vol from prices since the new contract issue (GMT12)
[2015-05-14 16:41:27] cengelandreasen : all it takes is a standard $10, or even $5 move to blow that out
[2015-05-14 16:43:44] Swedishnut : What would you recommend for a new person to this platform for reading materials? I'm fairly inexperienced
[2015-05-14 16:53:41] chrisxbt : Swedishnut: what do you want to learn about?
[2015-05-14 16:55:55] chrisxbt : cengelandreasen: so are you going to place a trade?
[2015-05-14 16:56:35] cengelandreasen : nah not this early, unless there's some decent offers
[2015-05-14 16:56:45] cengelandreasen : not worth selling into decent bids and getting rekt if theres some action later
[2015-05-14 17:11:48] Swedishnut : I'm most interested in hedging for a large increase to 2000$ + in less than 12 months.
[2015-05-14 17:16:50] chrisxbt : hedging USD?
[2015-05-14 17:19:42] cengelandreasen : swedishnut, then buy the XBUU15
[2015-05-14 17:19:55] cengelandreasen : that's the farthest dated one you can get (on any exchange even, afaik)
[2015-05-14 17:28:05] cengelandreasen : chrisxbt, you still using the pine script on TV?
[2015-05-14 17:30:03] chrisxbt : yup
[2015-05-14 17:40:28] chrisxbt : So what do you do with Bitfinex down?
[2015-05-14 17:43:07] cengelandreasen : chrisxbt, did you get the pine script to reflect fair value from contract time? not including day before?
[2015-05-14 17:43:31] chrisxbt : I got something good enough
[2015-05-14 17:43:42] chrisxbt : cengelandreasen: did you get it?
[2015-05-14 17:43:51] cengelandreasen : nah, i wrote a custom one instead to do it
[2015-05-14 17:43:56] cengelandreasen : not in pine
[2015-05-14 17:44:40] cengelandreasen : just something to calculate and graph the indicative price using only price snaps from contract start
[2015-05-14 17:46:02] cengelandreasen : but would be nice to have the indicator in TV
[2015-05-14 17:59:23] chrisxbt : impossible to code in pinescript
[2015-05-14 19:21:05] cengelandreasen : yea its garbage
[2015-05-14 19:21:21] BombaUcigasa : Sam, is BVOL indicative settlement price a rolling value?
[2015-05-14 19:21:25] BombaUcigasa : it seems rather low now
[2015-05-14 19:32:28] chrisxbt : BombaUcigasa: its the volatility from 12:00 UTC to now
[2015-05-14 19:40:33] cengelandreasen : Bomba, first 6 hours it uses the volatility from past day, but after that only from 12:00
[2015-05-14 19:44:03] chrisxbt : by past day you mean past 24 hours
[2015-05-14 19:56:22] cengelandreasen : nope Wally said he just uses the BVOL from the day before
[2015-05-14 19:56:49] cengelandreasen : that's why in the first 6 hours the indicative price was static at the prior settled BVOL24
[2015-05-14 19:58:53] chrisxbt : but it wasn't static
[2015-05-14 19:59:25] chrisxbt : cengelandreasen: .
[2015-05-14 19:59:45] cengelandreasen : then Wally will need to confirm because we saw two different things
[2015-05-14 20:00:16] cengelandreasen : can also double check the logs
[2015-05-14 20:40:18] chrisxbt : cengelandreasen: did you see it change?
[2015-05-14 20:41:07] cengelandreasen : no i saw it have same price for 6 hr in start
[2015-05-14 20:44:02] chrisxbt : maybe I remember wrong then
[2015-05-14 20:44:15] chrisxbt : cause I was also referring to my tv chart
[2015-05-14 20:51:04] BitMEX_Sam : I can clarify with him when he's awake (HKT), but I believe what he means is that it is rolling until 06:00 GMT from the 24 hours before
[2015-05-14 20:51:22] BitMEX_Sam : and then past 06:00 GMT, it is based on volatility between 00:00 GMT and the current time
[2015-05-14 20:53:04] BitMEX_Sam : .BVOL24H is probably the measure you want
[2015-05-14 20:53:16] BitMEX_Sam : that's just rolling 24hrs, last 288 samples of .XBT_5H
[2015-05-14 20:53:23] BitMEX_Sam : `.XBT_5M`, rather
[2015-05-14 20:53:56] chrisxbt : cengelandreasen: then you must be mistaken, it probably did change
[2015-05-14 20:54:01] BitMEX_Sam : We only show `.BVOL24H` daily in the contract specifications, but if you fetch it from the API you will actually get 5-minutely snaps
[2015-05-14 20:54:04] BitMEX_Sam : See e.g. https://www.bitmex.com/api/v1/trade?symbol=.BVOL24H&count=200&columns=price
[2015-05-14 20:54:14] BitMEX_Sam : You can then plug this into excel if you like and chart it
[2015-05-14 20:54:32] chrisxbt : [2015-05-14 04:48:33] BitMEX_Wally: Between 0-6 hours I just use .BVOL24H for the indicative settle price
[2015-05-14 20:54:38] BitMEX_Sam : See https://www.bitmex.com/app/excelPlugin
[2015-05-14 20:57:02] BitMEX_Sam : By Monday we'll have the index data in the charts on the site, we just need to make a small change on the backend to convert the data
[2015-05-14 20:57:33] BitMEX_Sam : I'll put charts on each index page as well as on top of the main chart. So BVOL24H will show .BVOL24H as another colored line, and XBT/XBU will show `.XBT` (BFX Spot)
[2015-05-14 20:59:57] cengelandreasen : okay that was my fault then you were right chrisxbt
[2015-05-14 21:03:41] chrisxbt : What wally said could have easily been misunderstood for the settlement price
[2015-05-14 21:14:49] cengelandreasen : Sam, I saw the plugin but didn't find many features. what i did instead was to just collect the 5min snaps and compute vol from there. and instead of rolling, just computing from start-time
[2015-05-14 21:15:00] cengelandreasen : as an additional comparative benchmark
[2015-05-14 21:15:11] BitMEX_Sam : I should be able to get something together from our google spreadsheet
[2015-05-14 21:15:13] BitMEX_Sam : let me hack on it a bit
[2015-05-14 21:16:00] cengelandreasen : andm y volatility measure tracks the indicative price fien (after 6 hrs into day)
[2015-05-14 21:17:34] cengelandreasen : http://i.imgur.com/2sl9AzF.png
[2015-05-14 21:18:57] cengelandreasen : i guess it would be funny to add in some other functionality to Excel sheet, like even placing orders and stuff lol
[2015-05-14 21:22:42] BitMEX_Sam : That's possible, yeah
[2015-05-14 21:22:43] BitMEX_Sam : Nice work on the sheet
[2015-05-14 21:23:48] BitMEX_Sam : If you wanted to place orders or see your positions via the sheet, I'd create a sheet with your public and private API keys and use that to HMAC sign the requests
[2015-05-14 21:23:57] BitMEX_Sam : Not sure how easy that is to do in VBA
[2015-05-14 21:26:59] cengelandreasen : ty. we have bank holiday here today and tomorrow so maybe i'll throw something together, although really more for lulz than actual use since the UI is fine IMO
[2015-05-14 21:26:59] BitMEX_Sam : BFX moving fast
[2015-05-14 21:27:04] cengelandreasen : dump
[2015-05-14 21:29:48] cengelandreasen : fakeout more like it
[2015-05-14 21:51:32] chrisxbt : Bitcoin is real crazy today
[2015-05-14 21:53:41] goat : chrisxbt: the last hour lol
[2015-05-14 22:34:30] BitMEX_Sam : Got google sheets to play ball
[2015-05-14 22:34:31] BitMEX_Sam : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Wc8XdMZZ9BR_0Vru8Sj1nu0Cc1tHsGvEqGSdMkCB2vo/edit?usp=sharing
[2015-05-14 22:34:51] BitMEX_Sam : See the second tab for a graph. Note this is 24H data rolling, so you'll see BVOL take a sharp dip in the last few minutes because BFX's last big dump just crossed out of bounds
[2015-05-14 22:47:19] chrisxbt : bvol looking like bfx grpah
[2015-05-14 22:50:30] chrisxbt : someone's bot is fucked up
[2015-05-14 23:26:37] BitMEX_Sam : Yeah that was a very low sell
[2015-05-14 23:51:58] BitMEX_Sam : Updated BVOL24H graph: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Wc8XdMZZ9BR_0Vru8Sj1nu0Cc1tHsGvEqGSdMkCB2vo/pubchart?oid=1928516861&format=interactive
[2015-05-15 00:23:35] chrisxbt : oh man got all chopped up in this market
[2015-05-15 00:25:01] BitMEX_Arthur : the chop is strong with this one
[2015-05-15 00:25:08] BitMEX_Arthur : trade some BVOL instead :0
[2015-05-15 00:31:35] goat : BitMEX_Arthur: people are getting anxious (they are such fragile traders lol) - http://shitco.in/2015/05/14/guess-whos-back-back-again-fontas-is-back/
[2015-05-15 00:31:57] BitMEX_Arthur : so what is the backstory of Fontas
[2015-05-15 00:32:09] BitMEX_Arthur : i've heard snippets about him
[2015-05-15 00:32:23] goat : so the internet friendly version
[2015-05-15 00:32:56] goat : he was an influential trader who used to be in the btce troll box and encourage others to but or sell in order to move the price
[2015-05-15 00:33:08] goat : and used other avenues obvi (twitter etc)
[2015-05-15 00:33:08] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-05-15 00:33:15] BitMEX_Arthur : so a pro pump and dumper
[2015-05-15 00:33:30] goat : lol im not here to call people names, i try to be friendly :D
[2015-05-15 00:33:56] goat : but he had a lot of ltc
[2015-05-15 00:34:04] goat : and moved that price quite a bit
[2015-05-15 00:34:38] BitMEX_Arthur : we were talking about him yday, me and aabtc
[2015-05-15 00:35:09] BitMEX_Arthur : in relation to his altcoin trading prowess on btc-e
[2015-05-15 00:35:49] goat : http://imgur.com/ypBFJcD
[2015-05-15 00:36:14] goat : you can see why i didnt put that whole thing in my post lol
[2015-05-15 00:36:52] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-05-15 00:40:29] BitMEX_Arthur : people give way too much credit to certain mythical traders
[2015-05-15 00:40:33] BitMEX_Arthur : i love Bitcoin
[2015-05-15 00:40:36] goat : wow
[2015-05-15 00:40:44] goat : i literally just had this typed into my chat box
[2015-05-15 00:40:48] goat : and deleted it
[2015-05-15 00:40:52] goat : "i love bitcoin, were all such nerds"
[2015-05-15 00:40:53] goat : hahahahaha
[2015-05-15 00:40:57] goat : then i was like no, thats lame
[2015-05-15 00:41:45] goat : i might go to this http://www.nypl.org/events/programs/2015/05/19/bitcoin-gavin-andresen-nathaniel-popper-andrew-sorkin-fred-wilson
[2015-05-15 00:42:31] BitMEX_Arthur : sounds like it will be cool
[2015-05-15 00:43:22] goat : looks like it
[2015-05-15 00:43:30] goat : a bunch of my friends are going so it should be a good time
[2015-05-15 00:47:48] goat : i also signed up for this today too - https://class.coursera.org/money-004/wiki/syllabus
[2015-05-15 00:48:11] goat : i feel like i probably know most of it but i want to learn more about repos
[2015-05-15 00:49:03] BitMEX_Arthur : i need to brush up on my stats
[2015-05-15 00:49:13] goat : coursera is awesome
[2015-05-15 00:49:24] goat : i took a cryptography class there from stanford and it was really good
[2015-05-15 00:49:26] goat : i learned a lot
[2015-05-15 00:49:37] goat : and its all free which is the best part, and you do it at your own pace
[2015-05-15 00:49:37] BitMEX_Arthur : actually that's a really good idea
[2015-05-15 00:50:53] goat : yeah, and you can do the work whenever
[2015-05-15 00:51:00] goat : hold on ill find you the class
[2015-05-15 00:51:09] goat : the profs name was dan boneh i think or something like that
[2015-05-15 00:51:30] goat : https://www.coursera.org/course/crypto
[2015-05-15 00:53:04] BitMEX_Arthur : thx
[2015-05-15 00:53:50] goat : its so redic when you go through the class because at one part i was like like wow, i get bitcoin
[2015-05-15 00:53:57] goat : like 100% i just get how the entire thing works
[2015-05-15 00:54:09] goat : and the part when he explains the dvd decryption is sick too
[2015-05-15 00:54:19] goat : about how they broke the encryption
[2015-05-15 00:54:28] BitMEX_Arthur : traditional university education's days are numbered
[2015-05-15 00:54:41] goat : i know man
[2015-05-15 00:54:50] goat : im so happy i only paid for bachelors
[2015-05-15 00:55:02] goat : everything else i learn at my own pace for free and dont need the shit filler classes
[2015-05-15 01:02:14] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah
[2015-05-15 01:02:37] BitMEX_Arthur : once u learn how to learn, traditional education is worthless
[2015-05-15 01:05:34] goat : totally man, since i found bitcoin i have learned more than i learned in 4 years of college
[2015-05-15 01:05:42] goat : and the best part is that its all out of my own curiosity
[2015-05-15 01:05:52] BitMEX_Arthur : and it pays
[2015-05-15 01:05:53] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-05-15 01:05:57] BitMEX_Arthur : hpefully :)
[2015-05-15 01:06:09] goat : haha it will
[2015-05-15 01:06:14] goat : im not worried about that part
[2015-05-15 01:15:48] goat : did you read my post from the other day
[2015-05-15 01:15:53] goat : the article from the new yorker
[2015-05-15 01:16:00] goat : good stuff from back in the day
[2015-05-15 01:16:17] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah
[2015-05-15 01:16:25] BitMEX_Arthur : wrong article
[2015-05-15 01:16:41] BitMEX_Arthur : did u see the London Review of Books recent piece about the bin laden assasenation
[2015-05-15 01:16:44] goat : yes
[2015-05-15 01:16:48] goat : simon hersh
[2015-05-15 01:16:56] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah
[2015-05-15 01:17:18] goat : i read his stuff about the syria thing too
[2015-05-15 01:17:27] goat : unfortunaltey its not proper to talk about on the internet lol
[2015-05-15 01:17:35] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah
[2015-05-15 01:18:23] goat : http://imgur.com/qpxr2td
[2015-05-15 01:21:32] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-05-15 01:31:56] goat : looks like we might get a little pump here
[2015-05-15 01:32:00] goat : okc trying to contain it
[2015-05-15 01:36:17] BitMEX_Arthur : small melt up
[2015-05-15 01:36:19] BitMEX_Arthur : i'm super bearish now
[2015-05-15 01:40:11] goat : the bfx longs are really a downer (lol)
[2015-05-15 01:40:25] goat : but the news is so bullish i feel like we are seeing some new money come in
[2015-05-15 01:40:47] BitMEX_Arthur : we failed to hold the itBit and GBTC rally
[2015-05-15 01:40:51] BitMEX_Arthur : couldn't even break $250
[2015-05-15 01:40:53] goat : i know that my parents, some of their friends, my girlfriends parents and some of their friends/family members are all buying btc regularly
[2015-05-15 01:41:03] goat : those coins need to be sourced from somewhere
[2015-05-15 01:41:16] goat : they are all just coinbase vaulting them
[2015-05-15 01:41:48] goat : people like them were buying btc just to make us (the younger generation) happy
[2015-05-15 01:41:53] goat : now that the news is out they are like wow this is for real
[2015-05-15 01:42:06] goat : im not saying they are buying a ton of coins, but say like 1-10 a week
[2015-05-15 01:42:16] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah but the price action isn't reflecting new money imo
[2015-05-15 01:42:25] goat : i think it kind of is though
[2015-05-15 01:42:30] goat : that were at least neutral
[2015-05-15 01:42:41] goat : so maybe that new money is offsetting mined coins
[2015-05-15 01:42:51] goat : im not saying the trend is up from here, but i think were at least flat
[2015-05-15 01:42:59] BitMEX_Arthur : i think we have one more serious plunge in store before the bull market really can begin
[2015-05-15 01:43:22] goat : those were my thoughts, but i feel like maybe we arent going to see anotehr bull market
[2015-05-15 01:43:29] goat : just a slow trend upward with a lot of volatility
[2015-05-15 01:45:10] BitMEX_Arthur : i would like to be wrong on this
[2015-05-15 01:45:19] BitMEX_Arthur : better for biz
[2015-05-15 01:45:26] goat : lol
[2015-05-15 01:45:36] goat : it sucks that the price hasnt gone up at least to liek 1k
[2015-05-15 01:45:44] goat : because then there would be alot more businesses starting
[2015-05-15 01:45:53] goat : just bc people have money to do more
[2015-05-15 01:46:09] goat : i know it will happen in due time, but thats the type of thing thats going to set off a chain reaction
[2015-05-15 01:46:26] goat : if we have a slow climb and all of the hodlrs can actually contribute back to the eco system
[2015-05-15 01:46:34] goat : bc they are rich and have good ideas
[2015-05-15 01:47:32] BitMEX_Arthur : a rising tide lifts all shipts
[2015-05-15 01:48:22] goat : yep
[2015-05-15 02:12:03] goat : euro is all over the place lol
[2015-05-15 02:34:35] aabtc : Hey goat, are you goat from btctalk from days of yore?
[2015-05-15 02:34:58] BitMEX_Arthur : aabtc: you at the conference?
[2015-05-15 02:35:27] aabtc : Yeah
[2015-05-15 02:35:34] BitMEX_Arthur : many people there yet?
[2015-05-15 02:36:18] aabtc : About the same as yesterday, thought it would be deserted with everyone hungover at hotels
[2015-05-15 02:36:33] aabtc : Skipping today?
[2015-05-15 02:36:36] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah same, i'm going to show up in the afternoon
[2015-05-15 02:36:41] BitMEX_Arthur : have some work to do and meetings
[2015-05-15 04:53:10] cengelandreasen : let see some morning action
[2015-05-15 06:15:33] BitMEX_Arthur : Aloha
[2015-05-15 06:41:09] aabtc : Lol Arthur
[2015-05-15 06:41:14] aabtc : They're waiting for you
[2015-05-15 06:41:41] aabtc : They're going to skip you on account of you probably being at the gym
[2015-05-15 06:43:17] BitMEX_Arthur : I was there and left I had the wtong time in my calendar
[2015-05-15 06:43:40] BitMEX_Arthur : BC everyone was at lunch
[2015-05-15 07:02:04] aabtc : That's ok you get to avoid the heat when tony engages bash mode lol
[2015-05-15 07:02:14] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah i just got here
[2015-05-15 07:02:18] BitMEX_Arthur : as long as my logo is on the screen
[2015-05-15 07:02:21] BitMEX_Arthur : i'm all good
[2015-05-15 08:14:45] cengelandreasen : oh wow, playing with the platform from mobile and it is smooth as butter, really nice maneuverability
[2015-05-15 08:59:40] BitMEX_Wally : :)
[2015-05-15 09:13:26] BitMEX_Wally : People are loving the `BVOL24H` future
[2015-05-15 09:32:33] aabtc : yes, its getting decent volume :)
[2015-05-15 09:52:03] BitMEX_Wally : aabtc: Indicative settlement price is currently 2.32 and falling.
[2015-05-15 09:52:26] BitMEX_Wally : Mathematically it can't settle less than 2.21%
[2015-05-15 09:52:42] BitMEX_Wally : (volatility calculation assuming the price does not move between now and settlement)
[2015-05-15 09:53:46] aabtc : haha still laughing about when someone asked arthur at the conference what he would do if ppl pnd'ed bvol
[2015-05-15 10:00:12] BitMEX_Wally : I wasn't sure what the question was exactly
[2015-05-15 10:00:30] BitMEX_Wally : "What if someone pretends to be BitMEX"?
[2015-05-15 10:02:29] aabtc : "what if people who weren't very smart made an irc room and pumped your instrument and asked for a refund"
[2015-05-15 10:08:38] BitMEX_Wally : "No"
[2015-05-15 10:19:01] aabtc : lol i think 2.21 isn't a bad estimate this market is taking sideways to a new level
[2015-05-15 10:20:15] BitMEX_Wally : I wouldn't want to be caught short
[2015-05-15 10:20:38] BitMEX_Wally : 2 hours till settlement, anything can happen
[2015-05-15 10:26:46] aabtc : lol coz you guys put the settlement time right on ny open
[2015-05-15 10:30:58] BitMEX_Wally : We chose the time that everyone would be awake in all timezones
[2015-05-15 10:31:11] BitMEX_Wally : 8pm Hong Kong, 8am New York, 12pm London
[2015-05-15 10:51:20] aabtc : 6am hk time for maximum shenanigans synergy pls
[2015-05-15 11:53:09] cengelandreasen : wally, unfortunately i haven't seen any asks below the vol floor of the day
[2015-05-15 11:54:16] cengelandreasen : for any of hte days it has traded
[2015-05-15 11:54:35] BitMEX_Wally : Are you saying people are too smart?
[2015-05-15 11:54:38] aabtc : bitcoin baby pls behave for the next 5 min daddy has to go meet friends
[2015-05-15 11:54:59] cengelandreasen : Wally, no but i thought when you mentioned that you implied there was mispricing in orderbook but i have yet to see it
[2015-05-15 11:55:02] aabtc : :59 whipsaw incoming
[2015-05-15 11:55:42] cengelandreasen : i do three scenario simulation of no vol, some vol, high vol as the day progresses
[2015-05-15 11:56:00] BitMEX_Wally : The implied settlement price is usually too high, because it assumes the day will continue as it has.
[2015-05-15 11:56:05] BitMEX_Wally : So usually there is easy pickings in the orderbook
[2015-05-15 11:56:21] cengelandreasen : yea easy pickings until a dump or pump happens in last few hours of settlement
[2015-05-15 11:56:27] BitMEX_Wally : :)
[2015-05-15 11:56:39] cengelandreasen : im looking for easier pickings than that :)
[2015-05-15 11:59:22] cengelandreasen : or, getting early bids filled at decent price another okay strategy
[2015-05-15 12:01:07] BitMEX_Wally : Bang
[2015-05-15 12:01:11] BitMEX_Wally : It settled at 2.22
[2015-05-15 12:10:00] cengelandreasen : so who's got the insider scoop on whether the volatility monster is going to visit us tonight?
[2015-05-15 12:39:47] BitMEX_Arthur : i think so
[2015-05-15 12:39:52] BitMEX_Arthur : been really quiet week
[2015-05-15 17:32:58] Swedishnut : Pretty sure there will be a shake up as soon as it is about 3pm Central. Fridays get Freaky
[2015-05-15 22:15:44] BitMEX_Arthur : BVOL24H looking rich here
[2015-05-15 22:31:50] BombaUcigasa : It seems people are not buying into the volatility will be low paradigm...
[2015-05-16 00:20:33] chrisxbt : damn didn't expect to see you on the front page. https://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/362doj/a_website_coding_itself_live/
[2015-05-16 00:37:39] chrudat : Happy Birthday Arthur
[2015-05-16 00:49:06] BitMEX_Arthur : chrudat: thanks but it's not my bday :)
[2015-05-16 00:49:55] BitMEX_Arthur : chrisxbt: yeah Sam's pretty bad ass