This is a mirror of the original BitMEX trollbox archive that used to be online here.
BitMEX disabled their archive after the DDOS attack so I have decided to make my mirror publicly available.

Well now, a few days after I made this mirror available to the public, the original archive from BitMEX is online again.
But since it is still limited (neutered to the last few hundred messages) I will keep my FULL mirror alive.

You have access to more than 50 million trollbox posts. This is more than 7 gigabyte of data hosted on a $5 server so please be patient or consider a donation

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[2016-12-25 04:48:58] Coconuter : bet you developed it j8
[2016-12-25 04:49:03] Coconuter : lol
[2016-12-25 04:49:09] j8 : oh i was being sarcastic. just got here though, still catching up on chat
[2016-12-25 04:49:16] ayy_lmao : trades when he doesnt have time to attend to market
[2016-12-25 04:49:21] ayy_lmao : puts on huge size
[2016-12-25 04:49:27] ayy_lmao : doesnt use limit orders
[2016-12-25 04:49:34] ayy_lmao : blames bitmex
[2016-12-25 04:49:36] Coconuter : 50k isnt huge orders man
[2016-12-25 04:49:40] ayy_lmao : continues trading on an exchange he doesnt trust
[2016-12-25 04:49:45] Coconuter : people sell 20k every time
[2016-12-25 04:49:51] ayy_lmao : you said 500k earlier
[2016-12-25 04:49:55] Coconuter : i have 500k
[2016-12-25 04:49:58] Coconuter : opened
[2016-12-25 04:50:05] Coconuter : not the one that i closed
[2016-12-25 04:50:07] Coconuter : was 50k
[2016-12-25 04:50:12] Coconuter : on cny
[2016-12-25 04:50:18] Coconuter : look the graphics
[2016-12-25 04:50:29] Coconuter : the bot tricked me on a rush
[2016-12-25 04:50:39] Coconuter : shit happens
[2016-12-25 04:52:08] Coconuter : here in bitmex at least we have a chance to trade
[2016-12-25 04:52:11] Coconuter : and not be hacked
[2016-12-25 04:52:16] ayy_lmao : lol
[2016-12-25 04:52:18] Coconuter : so yeah i keep trading here
[2016-12-25 04:52:19] dodic : https://imgflip.com/i/1gk6p0
[2016-12-25 04:53:00] Coconuter : lol i always take a shit on a market order
[2016-12-25 04:53:06] Coconuter : why not trade on a market order
[2016-12-25 04:53:13] Coconuter : if you see liquidity
[2016-12-25 04:53:16] immackay : hey kids
[2016-12-25 04:53:23] immackay : who got liquidated on that dump
[2016-12-25 04:53:26] Coconuter : you go
[2016-12-25 04:53:27] ayy_lmao : because you can do the exact same with limit but without risk
[2016-12-25 04:53:31] ayy_lmao : just as fast
[2016-12-25 04:53:38] j8 : Coconuter: have you ever heard of latency? when your order gets to the exchange, the orderbook could be empty
[2016-12-25 04:53:54] Coconuter : i was closing one order only
[2016-12-25 04:54:00] Coconuter : liquidity was there
[2016-12-25 04:54:08] Coconuter : it trigered first bids
[2016-12-25 04:54:09] j8 : it was there when you saw it
[2016-12-25 04:54:15] MrRGnome : What does how many orders you were closing have anything to do with late
[2016-12-25 04:54:16] Coconuter : yep
[2016-12-25 04:54:22] MrRGnome : latency
[2016-12-25 04:54:27] Coconuter : its like the magician
[2016-12-25 04:54:30] Coconuter : on the streets
[2016-12-25 04:54:34] Coconuter : which cards
[2016-12-25 04:54:36] Coconuter : are this
[2016-12-25 04:54:41] Coconuter : same thing
[2016-12-25 04:54:46] MrRGnome : ...
[2016-12-25 04:55:05] Coconuter : mrgrnome
[2016-12-25 04:55:13] narnarfromnarnia : we should hit 880 for a minute and back down?
[2016-12-25 04:55:13] ett1 : Coconuter: think about it the other way around
[2016-12-25 04:55:14] Coconuter : the liquidity disappeared
[2016-12-25 04:55:22] narnarfromnarnia : 15M looks oversold big time
[2016-12-25 04:55:23] Coconuter : it was a fake liquidity
[2016-12-25 04:55:26] MrRGnome : Coconuter, yes and that's expected behaviour
[2016-12-25 04:55:32] j8 : the market maker has no obligation to you
[2016-12-25 04:55:32] MrRGnome : It wasn't fake.
[2016-12-25 04:55:33] Coconuter : no
[2016-12-25 04:55:34] micmix : j8: it's not even that, the bids were empty all the way down to 5500 for a few minutes when he submitted market sell. Wally posted quote history from the API
[2016-12-25 04:55:35] Coconuter : its a bot
[2016-12-25 04:55:39] Coconuter : it needs to put another
[2016-12-25 04:55:39] ett1 : imagie you have orders, steped below one another like 860, 859, 858
[2016-12-25 04:55:40] Coconuter : order
[2016-12-25 04:55:42] dodic : Its shadow liquidity
[2016-12-25 04:55:42] Coconuter : to cancel
[2016-12-25 04:55:46] shery : narnarfromnarnia: no volume in buying
[2016-12-25 04:55:46] ett1 : you see 860 being filled
[2016-12-25 04:55:46] Coconuter : the escape
[2016-12-25 04:55:47] dodic : its not a hack
[2016-12-25 04:55:50] Coconuter : CMON guys
[2016-12-25 04:56:00] ett1 : you can cancel 859 and adjust it to 851
[2016-12-25 04:56:01] narnarfromnarnia : shery: it will turn around really quick though or could
[2016-12-25 04:56:07] MrRGnome : So you are crying because between latency and a bot, you couldn't pull off a market order at the price you wante
[2016-12-25 04:56:09] immackay : Coconuter: I feel for your loss
[2016-12-25 04:56:15] MrRGnome : That's entirely your own fault.
[2016-12-25 04:56:27] MrRGnome : If you wnated a specific price use limit
[2016-12-25 04:56:29] ett1 : MrRGnome: +1
[2016-12-25 04:56:29] Coconuter : it wasnt a loss
[2016-12-25 04:56:34] Coconuter : i didnt had profit
[2016-12-25 04:56:36] ayy_lmao : were u filled at a different price than you anticipated?
[2016-12-25 04:56:39] shery : narnarfromnarnia: Not sure , it looks like we are heading towards 850 and then up
[2016-12-25 04:56:48] ett1 : you need to educate yourself and stop blaming outside forces
[2016-12-25 04:57:02] MrRGnome : You're incoherent, no one is talking about loss or profit and they are irrelevant to your complaint, as is th enumber of orders
[2016-12-25 04:57:11] j8 : i don't even see any crazy wicks on XBC so it couldn't have been that bad
[2016-12-25 04:57:15] Coconuter : its not loss guys
[2016-12-25 04:57:16] ett1 : about how orderbooks work, specifically
[2016-12-25 04:57:21] MrRGnome : You are creating demons in your head, imaginary ghosts to explain what you cannot around you.
[2016-12-25 04:57:25] Coconuter : you only loose
[2016-12-25 04:57:31] Coconuter : what you contain
[2016-12-25 04:57:43] Coconuter : lol
[2016-12-25 04:57:45] dodic : i mean, its true that bots can play games on you, but thats part of the game
[2016-12-25 04:57:53] Coconuter : it was
[2016-12-25 04:57:55] MrRGnome : Yeah that's what you signed up for
[2016-12-25 04:58:01] Coconuter : its the bot from bitmex to give liqudity
[2016-12-25 04:58:02] Coconuter : to cny
[2016-12-25 04:58:04] MrRGnome : If you wanted to nto play that game make a limit order at the price you want
[2016-12-25 04:58:07] dodic : theres not rule agaist shadow liquidity
[2016-12-25 04:58:10] Coconuter : but its a fake liquidity
[2016-12-25 04:58:12] Coconuter : thats all
[2016-12-25 04:58:12] MrRGnome : even if liquidity exists already at that price and it fills as market
[2016-12-25 04:58:14] dodic : this is the wild west
[2016-12-25 04:58:19] Coconuter : i also appreciate them letting me talk about it
[2016-12-25 04:58:22] micmix : j8: it was yesterday, he sold 5500 and below
[2016-12-25 04:58:24] MrRGnome : It's not fake liquidity!
[2016-12-25 04:58:25] ett1 : Coconuter: dont even look at the order book
[2016-12-25 04:58:30] MrRGnome : So if I put up an order and take it down it's fake?
[2016-12-25 04:58:33] dodic : i can flash liquidity too
[2016-12-25 04:58:33] Coconuter : lol
[2016-12-25 04:58:39] dodic : make limitm cancel
[2016-12-25 04:58:46] dodic : boom "fake" liquidity
[2016-12-25 04:58:58] ett1 : its uselesss since the depth can be fake. dont read into it too much. use limit orders for the price you want and ignore the orderook
[2016-12-25 04:58:58] j8 : oh yeah that's a wick alright
[2016-12-25 04:59:03] immackay : dodic: that's not what happened, there wasn't any canceled orders
[2016-12-25 04:59:07] Coconuter : if they disappear without another order or canceling
[2016-12-25 04:59:08] Coconuter : automaticly
[2016-12-25 04:59:10] Coconuter : its fake
[2016-12-25 04:59:14] Coconuter : its just paper
[2016-12-25 04:59:14] MrRGnome : Yeah wow, so it turns out 99% of all liquidity doesn't exist until it's consumed.
[2016-12-25 04:59:17] Coconuter : not even btc
[2016-12-25 04:59:19] Coconuter : they need to use
[2016-12-25 04:59:20] MrRGnome : Glad I know that now.
[2016-12-25 04:59:30] Coconuter : its just fiat
[2016-12-25 04:59:33] Coconuter : pretending to be btc
[2016-12-25 04:59:35] Coconuter : as usual
[2016-12-25 04:59:37] MrRGnome : coconuter, ther ENTIRE INSTRUMENT is just paper.
[2016-12-25 04:59:43] MrRGnome : That doesn't make it fake
[2016-12-25 04:59:52] j8 : the main market maker has pretty low limits and WILL disappear, on basically every market
[2016-12-25 04:59:57] Coconuter : the profit is btc right
[2016-12-25 05:00:02] ayy_lmao : http://imgur.com/a/DEdXe
[2016-12-25 05:00:13] ett1 : Coconuter: im starting a new exchange soon. it dark pool, so har lots of liquidity. and nobody can see the order book so no games or faking it to try and trick traders
[2016-12-25 05:00:24] ett1 : you can join the waiting list
[2016-12-25 05:00:31] immackay : Coconuter: if you go back through the historical data for xbc and find the bids at that time it may shine some light on this issue
[2016-12-25 05:00:38] shery : ett1: Nice idea
[2016-12-25 05:00:59] Coconuter : lol i love everyone
[2016-12-25 05:01:02] Coconuter : bitching around
[2016-12-25 05:01:03] narnarfromnarnia : shery: check huobi
[2016-12-25 05:01:06] ett1 : thanks, its just different rules to the game
[2016-12-25 05:01:06] narnarfromnarnia : starting to look green
[2016-12-25 05:01:08] Coconuter : playing with 0.1 btc
[2016-12-25 05:01:14] narnarfromnarnia : 15m
[2016-12-25 05:01:23] MrRGnome : yeah investigate this "issue", i.e. normal market activity. god damn coconutjob.
[2016-12-25 05:01:29] Coconuter : ett1: cool this is nice no cheat codes
[2016-12-25 05:01:30] shery : narnarfromnarnia: No vulmes , still hovering up and dwn lk yestaerday,
[2016-12-25 05:01:32] ett1 : the volume and past trades would be public ofcourse
[2016-12-25 05:01:42] ett1 : but orderbook is hidden basically
[2016-12-25 05:01:43] Coconuter : no man this broker isnt dumb
[2016-12-25 05:01:55] ayy_lmao : lol at that wick
[2016-12-25 05:01:59] j8 : Coconuter: sorry for your loss, for real. it's shitty but you need to watch the bots, learn how they work and beat them at their game
[2016-12-25 05:02:10] Coconuter : they have the statistic as if was never canceled
[2016-12-25 05:02:15] immackay : ett1: yeah, it's a pity we don't have historical orderbook data
[2016-12-25 05:02:22] Coconuter : j8: dude its not a loss its a learning
[2016-12-25 05:02:25] Coconuter : lol
[2016-12-25 05:02:32] Coconuter : we loose a few to not loose millions
[2016-12-25 05:02:37] ett1 : immackay: you like this idea mate
[2016-12-25 05:02:38] ett1 : ?
[2016-12-25 05:02:47] immackay : ett1: which idea?
[2016-12-25 05:02:50] MrRGnome : You should ask bitmex to remove the order fromt heir records since it was fake
[2016-12-25 05:02:59] micmix : immackay: there is historical data for best bid and ask
[2016-12-25 05:03:01] ett1 : exchange with hidden order book
[2016-12-25 05:03:04] Coconuter : immackay: the bot filled the first bitcoin
[2016-12-25 05:03:08] Coconuter : the other 12
[2016-12-25 05:03:10] Coconuter : it canceled
[2016-12-25 05:03:15] Coconuter : it gave a 2 seconds lag
[2016-12-25 05:03:19] Coconuter : something like that
[2016-12-25 05:03:26] Coconuter : and the next order was 55500
[2016-12-25 05:03:29] ett1 : different rules to the game, no games with fake depth since noone can see it
[2016-12-25 05:03:31] Coconuter : lol
[2016-12-25 05:03:33] Coconuter : fucking wild
[2016-12-25 05:03:40] ett1 : good for big block traders
[2016-12-25 05:03:44] Coconuter : fake liquidity
[2016-12-25 05:03:45] immackay : ett1: yeah, that's a good idea
[2016-12-25 05:03:48] MrRGnome : ett1 you realize people can post hidden orders now if that's a concern
[2016-12-25 05:03:48] Coconuter : that was only 50k
[2016-12-25 05:04:14] Coconuter : it had orders for that on the first 4-5 positions
[2016-12-25 05:04:16] ayy_lmao : if you could get filled at any price, trading would be easy mate
[2016-12-25 05:04:19] immackay : micmix: I know, but that doesn't really help this situation
[2016-12-25 05:04:29] ayy_lmao : thats the game
[2016-12-25 05:04:33] Coconuter : sure
[2016-12-25 05:04:44] Coconuter : it happens
[2016-12-25 05:04:48] micmix : immackay: it does, it shows that the best bid was 5500 when he tried to sell. I don't know what he saw
[2016-12-25 05:05:11] Coconuter : yes maybe the url wasnt refreshed
[2016-12-25 05:05:12] Coconuter : right
[2016-12-25 05:05:16] Coconuter : lol
[2016-12-25 05:05:30] immackay : micmix: I know that, I saw the data that bitmex_wally had posted
[2016-12-25 05:05:43] Coconuter : watch that bot
[2016-12-25 05:05:44] Coconuter : all day
[2016-12-25 05:05:48] Coconuter : see how many times
[2016-12-25 05:05:52] Coconuter : he skips
[2016-12-25 05:06:02] Coconuter : 10000cny
[2016-12-25 05:06:18] Coconuter : tricky
[2016-12-25 05:06:26] Coconuter : lucky i can handle the non profit
[2016-12-25 05:06:29] Coconuter : and am here
[2016-12-25 05:06:32] Coconuter : pumping this MOFO
[2016-12-25 05:06:37] MrRGnome : Are we watching it for fun, like people watching but bot watching?
[2016-12-25 05:06:38] ett1 : immackay: @micmix but was it bitmexes bot. do bitmex guarantee liquidity?
[2016-12-25 05:06:41] MrRGnome : Are we wondering what it's thinking?
[2016-12-25 05:06:56] MrRGnome : bitme operates no market maker bots, I know that
[2016-12-25 05:07:02] immackay : micmix: @Coconuter says that he double checked the orderbook however and that there was 50000 contracts worth of bids near 5500
[2016-12-25 05:07:18] Coconuter : check for the next week
[2016-12-25 05:07:21] ett1 : i think it was a random trader(s) bots(s) adjusting their order prices as the market price fell and the first bids get hit
[2016-12-25 05:07:24] rapidtrades : was stop trading at 880 5 mins ago? i thought i saw 10+ discount
[2016-12-25 05:07:24] ett1 : not bitmexes
[2016-12-25 05:07:32] rapidtrades : spot
[2016-12-25 05:07:35] immackay : ett1: yeah, I don't really see why he's blaming "bitmex" bot - it's someone elses bot
[2016-12-25 05:07:45] ett1 : and even if it was, bitmex doesnt guarantee their MM will provide liquidity
[2016-12-25 05:07:46] MrRGnome : thankgod, rapidtrades.
[2016-12-25 05:07:52] MrRGnome : say something retarded and change the subject
[2016-12-25 05:07:54] ett1 : its for themselves basically too
[2016-12-25 05:07:57] rapidtrades : YES OR NO BOYS I NEED TO SLEEP
[2016-12-25 05:08:01] MrRGnome : I can't listen to coconutjob anymore
[2016-12-25 05:08:04] immackay : MrRGnome: you're particularly cunty aren't you
[2016-12-25 05:08:06] ett1 : same
[2016-12-25 05:08:18] Coconuter : go to sleep and sell it then
[2016-12-25 05:08:22] ett1 : frsutrating to explain. i cant tell if trolling us
[2016-12-25 05:08:30] Coconuter : lol
[2016-12-25 05:08:38] MrRGnome : immackay: kitteny?
[2016-12-25 05:08:40] elmorte : Merry Xmas mofos! :)
[2016-12-25 05:08:41] ett1 : thats the low guys i think
[2016-12-25 05:08:48] ett1 : 900 incoming?
[2016-12-25 05:09:00] dodic : all of a sudden massive premium
[2016-12-25 05:09:06] halloz : BTFD
[2016-12-25 05:09:14] Coconuter : that day i felt like a whale
[2016-12-25 05:09:18] dodic : shits crazy
[2016-12-25 05:09:38] Coconuter : it moved 10000
[2016-12-25 05:09:46] Coconuter : unfortunately it wasnt against myself
[2016-12-25 05:09:47] Coconuter : lol
[2016-12-25 05:09:52] j8 : 10000, yeah i bet
[2016-12-25 05:09:54] rapidtrades : was spot trading at 10+ discount 10 mins ago? YES OR NO
[2016-12-25 05:10:02] rapidtrades : i mean the swap
[2016-12-25 05:10:02] ett1 : yes
[2016-12-25 05:10:09] rapidtrades : wtf
[2016-12-25 05:10:13] Coconuter : 1000
[2016-12-25 05:10:18] Coconuter : typing on smartphone
[2016-12-25 05:10:22] ett1 : rapidtrades: i think bitmex is the leader
[2016-12-25 05:10:33] ett1 : were going from fucking the longs
[2016-12-25 05:10:38] micmix : ett1: kraken has dark pool already, min order 25btc now http://blog.kraken.com/post/121063219162/introducing-the-kraken-dark-pool
[2016-12-25 05:10:41] ett1 : to a new bull move i think
[2016-12-25 05:10:41] rapidtrades : well it's the leader of smth that's for sure
[2016-12-25 05:11:09] ett1 : micmix: is it the same book as the normal exchange, just hidden orders
[2016-12-25 05:11:15] ett1 : or a seperate book
[2016-12-25 05:11:24] immackay : micmix: kraken has little volume
[2016-12-25 05:11:32] micmix : separate book, all orders completely hidden
[2016-12-25 05:11:43] MrRGnome : It has more volume than an nonexistent exchange.
[2016-12-25 05:11:43] ett1 : ok fair enough. same idea
[2016-12-25 05:11:56] ett1 : is it margin trading or just spot
[2016-12-25 05:11:58] immackay : MrRGnome: thank you for that
[2016-12-25 05:12:06] rapidtrades : micmix: was spot trading at 889 with swap at 873 about 10 mins ago?
[2016-12-25 05:12:39] ett1 : panic selling going on
[2016-12-25 05:12:46] ett1 : lots of selling so discount
[2016-12-25 05:12:53] ett1 : now the sentiment has changed
[2016-12-25 05:12:57] micmix : rapidtrades: I wasn't looking 10 min ago but I saw $10+ discount earlier today
[2016-12-25 05:13:14] ett1 : i think bitststamp is following bitmex,n not the other way
[2016-12-25 05:13:25] ett1 : bitmex has the highest volume so that theory could make sense
[2016-12-25 05:13:28] MrRGnome : 'ett1 what makes you htink that?
[2016-12-25 05:13:35] ett1 : shakeout
[2016-12-25 05:13:51] ett1 : MrRGnome: because we have biggese peaks and lows
[2016-12-25 05:14:04] rms : i'm thinking that christmas day is not when BTC goes up
[2016-12-25 05:14:09] rms : monday is bank holiday in USA
[2016-12-25 05:14:10] ett1 : bitstamp is in the middle waiting to see where bitmex margin traders take the market
[2016-12-25 05:14:16] rms : so new fiat hits exchanges on tuesday
[2016-12-25 05:14:20] rms : and that's when we go up again
[2016-12-25 05:14:28] rms : but that the next few days we go down on not much volume
[2016-12-25 05:14:43] MrRGnome : ett1: That's because we're a 100x excahnge, of course we have higher peaks and lows. We're leveraged.
[2016-12-25 05:14:46] ett1 : when swaps go to premium & funding rate goes high theres buying,
[2016-12-25 05:14:48] rms : to not much lower than 850, basically retracing half of the really fast rise
[2016-12-25 05:14:59] ett1 : when its discount & low funding rate there panic seling
[2016-12-25 05:16:05] ett1 : MrRGnome: i dont think thats the reason necesarilt
[2016-12-25 05:16:22] ett1 : that higer volatility is because higer leverage on offer
[2016-12-25 05:16:49] MrRGnome : I can't even talk to these new guys in chat. It's like you are all speaking a different language.
[2016-12-25 05:16:55] ett1 : perhaps that makes things more liquid so easier to discover price
[2016-12-25 05:16:56] rapidtrades : that $10 disocunt couldn't have stayed long cos it would've affected funding
[2016-12-25 05:17:02] ett1 : could be lower vol
[2016-12-25 05:17:03] MrRGnome : I LITERALLY just said it was because of leverage being offered.
[2016-12-25 05:17:41] ett1 : MrRGnome: ye im not sure if i agree thats the reason
[2016-12-25 05:17:47] ett1 : higher leverage = higher market vol
[2016-12-25 05:17:57] ett1 : i dont think thats definitely true
[2016-12-25 05:18:02] MrRGnome : when swaps go to premium & funding rate goes high theres buying,
[2016-12-25 05:18:04] MrRGnome : That's what you said
[2016-12-25 05:18:13] ett1 : ye
[2016-12-25 05:18:17] MrRGnome : There is no funding rate if there is no leverage
[2016-12-25 05:18:29] ett1 : rigtt
[2016-12-25 05:18:42] MrRGnome : So if you are sttributing some cause to the funding rate
[2016-12-25 05:18:42] ett1 : but why does that mean bitmex has to be more volatile than stamp
[2016-12-25 05:18:45] elmorte : lol, both my short and long are in the red...
[2016-12-25 05:18:51] MrRGnome : Then you are really attributing it to the leverage.
[2016-12-25 05:19:20] ett1 : it just is. i dont know if thats why
[2016-12-25 05:19:25] rapidtrades : I'm sensing a lot of less Christmas spirit this morning and a lot more 'shit this bitcorn thing isn't working out, guess I gotta go back to work'
[2016-12-25 05:19:33] MrRGnome : Why does leverage create volatility? Because instead of just stop hunting you get to go liquidation hunting too,
[2016-12-25 05:20:00] ett1 : sure i undertand
[2016-12-25 05:20:10] elmorte : rapidtrades: haha...bipolar bitcoiners
[2016-12-25 05:20:14] ett1 : but fx is highly levereged
[2016-12-25 05:20:22] j8 : rapidtrades: they all quit their jobs when we hit 900
[2016-12-25 05:20:25] MrRGnome : It also create a massive amount of volume by conceptualizing coins that don't actualyl exist
[2016-12-25 05:20:25] ett1 : can be lower vol than stocks or products with no leverage
[2016-12-25 05:20:45] ett1 : leverage can be a function of volatility too. like brokers used to only offer 3x or 5x for btc
[2016-12-25 05:21:10] MrRGnome : If you are suggesting fx and derivatives are a somparably small market you are nuts
[2016-12-25 05:21:34] narnarfromnarnia : whew got out with some profits
[2016-12-25 05:21:35] ett1 : im not sure if the volatility of the exchage isn to do about the amount of leverage being offered
[2016-12-25 05:21:40] Vijuu : Where is satoshi contracts
[2016-12-25 05:21:43] MrRGnome : okcasino has been offering way more than that for years.
[2016-12-25 05:22:00] rapidtrades : he's saying lower vol instruments have higher leverage products
[2016-12-25 05:22:05] MrRGnome : Well, it's the literal mechanism that creates peaks and valleys - so believe what you want
[2016-12-25 05:22:10] MrRGnome : leverage creates volatility.
[2016-12-25 05:22:16] rapidtrades : argument doesn't apply here cos vol is sky high
[2016-12-25 05:22:19] Vijuu : How to trade with 10000 satoshis
[2016-12-25 05:22:38] elmorte : j8: any spreadsheet software that would support websocket?
[2016-12-25 05:22:50] j8 : elmorte: doubt it
[2016-12-25 05:22:53] j8 : i dunno though
[2016-12-25 05:23:03] MrRGnome : I think you can program a .gs sheet with websocket handling
[2016-12-25 05:23:09] j8 : it's kind of a weird thing to do in a spreadsheet
[2016-12-25 05:23:16] rapidtrades : leverage DOES NOT create volatility, it likely dampens it overall ...but ofc it can exercebate the moves at turning points
[2016-12-25 05:23:16] MrRGnome : You can probably do it in visual basic too
[2016-12-25 05:23:39] MrRGnome : I would call "exacerbated movements" volatility.
[2016-12-25 05:24:03] ett1 : rapidtrades: +1 that what i think. it could dampen it since its easier to create liquidity
[2016-12-25 05:24:26] rapidtrades : overall it leads to a lot more volume and fatter books, so on average its prolly positive...it's just that the outliers stick in ur mind @MrRGnome
[2016-12-25 05:24:40] MrRGnome : It's absolutely positive if volume is your problem
[2016-12-25 05:25:22] j8 : leverage means you can get to the "right" price faster, but that's not necessary lower volatility
[2016-12-25 05:25:31] MrRGnome : It explodes volume and volatility. I have trouble understanding how there can be any debate about that. That same volume, represented 100x up tot he collatoral, means smaller movements trigger bigger liquidations and reactions
[2016-12-25 05:26:10] elmorte : j8: it would help with the UI
[2016-12-25 05:26:24] rapidtrades : because bigger leverage can also absorb large blocks of selling for example....again ur just looking at it at the extremes
[2016-12-25 05:26:39] MrRGnome : Sure, but it EQUALLY creates bigge buys
[2016-12-25 05:26:41] MrRGnome : So it's a wash
[2016-12-25 05:26:47] ett1 : volume but not volatility. the product will have a volatility of its own and higher volum will dampen the short term spikes and keep thing in more orderly
[2016-12-25 05:26:51] elmorte : if it could parse and display the data
[2016-12-25 05:27:23] rapidtrades : in theory it should be a wash yes...but in practice vol has gone down a lot in bitcoin while levarage was increased
[2016-12-25 05:27:28] elmorte : I guess i could whip something up in _shudder_ VBA
[2016-12-25 05:27:41] ett1 : rapidtrades: i agree
[2016-12-25 05:28:05] MrRGnome : If you weren't increasing the average order size proportional to the new liquidity on the books, yes you would reduce volatility. BUT because the orders are scaling in size with th eliquiditty because both are created by the same leverage, you end up LOSING the benefit of the thicker orderbook to equally thicker orders.
[2016-12-25 05:28:37] MrRGnome : Therefore, all you have introduced is the possiblity for liquidations, which increases net volatility
[2016-12-25 05:28:40] MrRGnome : Case closed.
[2016-12-25 05:28:44] elmorte : j8: basically, I'm learning and my first project to be if I market close right now, what would I get (as in hit in the order book)
[2016-12-25 05:28:46] ett1 : you make assumptions
[2016-12-25 05:29:00] j8 : high leverage gives power to speculators but not to liquidity providers
[2016-12-25 05:29:23] arbitrage001 : price distortion here is unreal
[2016-12-25 05:29:23] MrRGnome : It gives equal power to both, assuming they accept the same risk level
[2016-12-25 05:29:27] ett1 : j8: yes it does. it gives power to arbs and short term traders
[2016-12-25 05:29:33] j8 : liquidity providers don't trade 100x
[2016-12-25 05:29:34] ett1 : who provide liquidity
[2016-12-25 05:29:36] j8 : or even 20x
[2016-12-25 05:29:43] rapidtrades : I consider anything above 10/1 leverage for bitcoin unsustainable in terms of netting out the books, sooner or later it will lead to clawbacks or ADLs etc
[2016-12-25 05:29:52] MrRGnome : it's true there is a practical reality and an academic one.
[2016-12-25 05:30:02] MrRGnome : In practice many liquidity providers might not be chronic gamblers
[2016-12-25 05:30:04] rapidtrades : it's not good for a well functioning market
[2016-12-25 05:30:10] j8 : you can't do arb at 20x
[2016-12-25 05:30:21] MrRGnome : Very good point.
[2016-12-25 05:30:52] ett1 : if you do hegded trading you could have -100x and 100x on differnet instruments to reduce the spread getting ou tof line
[2016-12-25 05:31:01] j8 : nope
[2016-12-25 05:31:03] ett1 : without leverage youd need a lot of capital and make less return
[2016-12-25 05:31:07] MrRGnome : No one would risk that
[2016-12-25 05:31:08] ett1 : so less people doing it
[2016-12-25 05:31:10] ett1 : higher vol
[2016-12-25 05:31:12] MrRGnome : You get called on both and your arb is fucked
[2016-12-25 05:31:17] j8 : then a half percent move in the spread wipes you out
[2016-12-25 05:31:20] rapidtrades : that doesn't help when ADL or clawbacks hit @ett1
[2016-12-25 05:31:30] rapidtrades : also what j8 says
[2016-12-25 05:31:40] ett1 : ADL?
[2016-12-25 05:31:40] narnarfromnarnia : what's everyones play here seems like low volume,
[2016-12-25 05:31:45] narnarfromnarnia : i don't have any position open yet
[2016-12-25 05:31:59] arbitrage001 : buy dec and sell swap
[2016-12-25 05:32:03] arbitrage001 : the current play
[2016-12-25 05:32:08] rapidtrades : ett1: hover over the lights right below the price
[2016-12-25 05:32:14] gdog : long i think
[2016-12-25 05:32:18] narnarfromnarnia : arbitrage001: im not sure how that works
[2016-12-25 05:32:24] j8 : yeah, got some dec at -0.7% premium earlier
[2016-12-25 05:32:34] narnarfromnarnia : is it still a good premium now?
[2016-12-25 05:32:44] ett1 : yes
[2016-12-25 05:32:51] arbitrage001 : narnarfromnarnia: not anymore as we speak
[2016-12-25 05:32:54] ett1 : z16 is under spot
[2016-12-25 05:32:57] arbitrage001 : market move too fast
[2016-12-25 05:33:04] narnarfromnarnia : arbitrage001: what was it at?
[2016-12-25 05:33:07] ett1 : woops sorry no
[2016-12-25 05:33:09] narnarfromnarnia : i see same price 873
[2016-12-25 05:33:09] Rado : j8: -0.7?
[2016-12-25 05:33:10] Rado : nice
[2016-12-25 05:33:16] arbitrage001 : was 7 dollars spread
[2016-12-25 05:33:29] narnarfromnarnia : arbitrage001: could you explain that a bit
[2016-12-25 05:33:37] narnarfromnarnia : you mean 7 higher or lower than perpetual?
[2016-12-25 05:33:53] ett1 : sorry yes it still is
[2016-12-25 05:33:55] arbitrage001 : the price difference between swap and dec is 7 dollars
[2016-12-25 05:34:19] arbitrage001 : narnarfromnarnia: it should be close to par as the expiration date is near
[2016-12-25 05:34:23] narnarfromnarnia : how do you see that?
[2016-12-25 05:34:33] narnarfromnarnia : arbitrage001: right
[2016-12-25 05:34:42] narnarfromnarnia : it just dropped a lot now
[2016-12-25 05:34:44] narnarfromnarnia : woah
[2016-12-25 05:34:48] arbitrage001 : narnarfromnarnia: you buy one and sell another
[2016-12-25 05:34:49] ett1 : ye, youd have to factor it rollover and the negative funding right now
[2016-12-25 05:34:51] narnarfromnarnia : much bigger moves
[2016-12-25 05:35:27] elmorte : arbitrage001: funding though...
[2016-12-25 05:35:36] ett1 : arbitrage001: would you make money just long futures, short spreads long term
[2016-12-25 05:35:49] ett1 : i dont understand. seems to easy. what am i missing
[2016-12-25 05:35:52] arbitrage001 : ett1: there are traders here only trading spread
[2016-12-25 05:36:10] ett1 : is that what you do
[2016-12-25 05:36:29] narnarfromnarnia : arbitrage001: i'd like to see how that works
[2016-12-25 05:36:30] arbitrage001 : what i do is not relevant
[2016-12-25 05:36:37] narnarfromnarnia : if it works and leverage just the same
[2016-12-25 05:36:43] narnarfromnarnia : that was like guaranteed winnings right?
[2016-12-25 05:36:44] MrRGnome : ett1 it's not easy because the market and prices change and their relationship changes
[2016-12-25 05:36:55] arbitrage001 : lol, that is no guranteee winning
[2016-12-25 05:36:58] narnarfromnarnia : lol
[2016-12-25 05:37:01] MrRGnome : it's rare for a future to be under priced like that,
[2016-12-25 05:37:18] rapidtrades : are u sure?
[2016-12-25 05:37:22] ett1 : MrRGnome: yes got it
[2016-12-25 05:37:22] narnarfromnarnia : what do you guys think short term here likely 880 and back down?
[2016-12-25 05:37:36] MrRGnome : In bitcoin itin a bull trend with a near immediate expiry? Yeah
[2016-12-25 05:37:40] rapidtrades : so i shouldn't ask for a consumer loan so I can trade bitcorns?
[2016-12-25 05:37:47] ett1 : rapidtrades: too much selling
[2016-12-25 05:37:53] ett1 : oversold
[2016-12-25 05:38:01] ett1 : could be a bull sign
[2016-12-25 05:38:14] rapidtrades : everything is a bull sign here
[2016-12-25 05:38:19] ett1 : things will revert to the mean
[2016-12-25 05:38:25] MrRGnome : rapidtrades: well, since you're a rpo I think you should probably get that loan and turn it into a million. I don't know about some of these other guys though, sounds like a good way to ruin your life if you aren't a pro.
[2016-12-25 05:38:54] elmorte : ett1: lol...or mean will = things
[2016-12-25 05:39:07] rapidtrades : ett1: the 'mean' is $564 this year and much lower if we go back further
[2016-12-25 05:39:19] rapidtrades : so not sure you'd want that
[2016-12-25 05:39:24] micmix : get 1 million loan, buy bitcoin, short future, profit, super easy
[2016-12-25 05:39:29] dodic : so the funding rate is negative, that means longs get paid this round? or did I read that wrong?
[2016-12-25 05:39:30] ett1 : mo i meant premium & funding rates
[2016-12-25 05:39:35] dodic : on btc swap
[2016-12-25 05:39:38] ett1 : not price
[2016-12-25 05:40:22] gdog : huobi 6290
[2016-12-25 05:41:20] rapidtrades : china at 904
[2016-12-25 05:41:38] rapidtrades : we shouldn't fall as hard as china cos we're already at discount...but bots have no brains
[2016-12-25 05:41:51] rapidtrades : we'll prolly meet at 800
[2016-12-25 05:42:09] arbitrage001 : rapidtrades: discount means we are in bear trend
[2016-12-25 05:42:23] rapidtrades : i meant discount to china
[2016-12-25 05:42:26] arbitrage001 : as price go lower, the discount can go deeper
[2016-12-25 05:42:46] deep : on negative longs , funding should be given....anyone who can explain?
[2016-12-25 05:42:53] arbitrage001 : discount to china means we are also in bear trend lol
[2016-12-25 05:43:08] rapidtrades : not really no
[2016-12-25 05:43:28] ett1 : deep: sentiment
[2016-12-25 05:43:30] ett1 : lots of hedging
[2016-12-25 05:43:31] micmix : deep: negative funding means shorts will pay, longs will get paid
[2016-12-25 05:43:34] rapidtrades : discount to china usually happens during bull runs and ends with the bull run
[2016-12-25 05:44:07] ett1 : rapidtrades: your saying its bearing?
[2016-12-25 05:44:13] ett1 : i think its short term oversold
[2016-12-25 05:44:20] ett1 : due to fear
[2016-12-25 05:44:26] rapidtrades : we're having an academic discussion
[2016-12-25 05:44:33] ett1 : either hedgers, panic sellers, profit takers etc
[2016-12-25 05:44:46] rapidtrades : useless for practical purposes
[2016-12-25 05:44:51] deep : not sure, they say that funding will be paid to the account if long is negative. if long is positive, then you will be charged. Is my understanding correct? sorry I am new here...so may b asking a naive thing
[2016-12-25 05:45:22] ett1 : if you are long you will get paid right now
[2016-12-25 05:45:25] ett1 : shorts are charged
[2016-12-25 05:45:37] ett1 : like when interest rates go negative and you are charged on yur savings
[2016-12-25 05:45:45] micmix : deep: if you have a long position on XBTUSD and funding is negative, you will get paid
[2016-12-25 05:46:01] ett1 : if you buy right now you will recieve premium
[2016-12-25 05:46:12] ett1 : sorry receive funding rate
[2016-12-25 05:46:56] ett1 : if you are willing to provide liquidity...the market is looking for buyes to fulfil their demand
[2016-12-25 05:47:04] narnarfromnarnia : all signals are buy
[2016-12-25 05:47:04] rapidtrades : it's funny cos our spot is 30 below but our march is 10 above china
[2016-12-25 05:47:18] deep : ok. thanks for explanation.
[2016-12-25 05:47:20] rapidtrades : there's a good arb there but i can't figure it out at 7 am
[2016-12-25 05:47:34] Vijuu : Contract cost explain plz
[2016-12-25 05:48:19] Vijuu : How to trade with 10000 satoshi
[2016-12-25 05:48:26] ett1 : rapidtrades: if you were long swaps, what would you do
[2016-12-25 05:48:55] rapidtrades : prolly nothing, why?
[2016-12-25 05:49:39] ett1 : you wouldnt sell and buy futures
[2016-12-25 05:50:29] rapidtrades : it's only 0.5%...0.35% if u market sell both times
[2016-12-25 05:50:44] j8 : rapidtrades: get on board the long china, short US train and short the usdcny while you're at it
[2016-12-25 05:51:05] j8 : i mean long usdcny of course
[2016-12-25 05:51:13] ett1 : forget that. is it better to sell swaps for futures
[2016-12-25 05:51:23] ett1 : if bullish btc
[2016-12-25 05:51:42] rapidtrades : u can't trade usd/cny but usd/cnh has a nasty rollover for longs
[2016-12-25 05:52:37] j8 : you don't have to if you just do the trade on quarterlies
[2016-12-25 05:52:55] j8 : that puts you short usdcny
[2016-12-25 05:52:57] rapidtrades : go long their march, sell ours
[2016-12-25 05:53:02] j8 : ya
[2016-12-25 05:53:12] j8 : i mean long again. dammit
[2016-12-25 05:53:33] rapidtrades : now if u add in short usd/cnh that's an arb
[2016-12-25 05:53:50] rapidtrades : and u'll get paid rollover fees cos ur short
[2016-12-25 05:54:03] rapidtrades : on most brokers anyway (*check fine print)
[2016-12-25 05:55:34] j8 : sure, i'm fine with the usdcny exposure though
[2016-12-25 05:55:34] rapidtrades : total profit $5 plus rollover fees for 3 months
[2016-12-25 05:57:31] JimmySmits : I covered my short and went long..looking for more of a bounce but not past 885 probably
[2016-12-25 05:57:42] rapidtrades : that would around 1% in rollover fees
[2016-12-25 05:58:13] arbitrage001 : j8: only 1.4% difference
[2016-12-25 05:58:14] rapidtrades : kinda sucky arb for all the exchange exposure
[2016-12-25 05:58:28] arbitrage001 : j8: potential profit a bit low for the risk
[2016-12-25 05:58:52] MrRGnome : I loved you in the west wing Jimmy!
[2016-12-25 05:59:03] rapidtrades : so only good if ur bullish on usd/cnh
[2016-12-25 05:59:38] arbitrage001 : shorting rmb and long usd is a dangerous trade
[2016-12-25 06:00:01] arbitrage001 : unless you are looking at 55+ premium
[2016-12-25 06:00:07] arbitrage001 : 5% +
[2016-12-25 06:00:10] j8 : 1.4% on btc.... you don't have negative exposure for it, that's harder to find than 5% on usd
[2016-12-25 06:01:00] arbitrage001 : shorting march future gives you 5%
[2016-12-25 06:01:07] j8 : on usd
[2016-12-25 06:01:13] j8 : you lose your long exposure
[2016-12-25 06:01:14] arbitrage001 : was 7% a few hours ago
[2016-12-25 06:01:49] j8 : you can do the china trade with leverage, without shorting btc
[2016-12-25 06:02:32] rapidtrades : also u have to factor in that not small chance of bitcoin restrictions in china
[2016-12-25 06:02:33] arbitrage001 : still new to trading yield
[2016-12-25 06:02:41] arbitrage001 : will obverse how things turn out
[2016-12-25 06:02:41] j8 : the odds are it will converge at least somewhat long before expiry
[2016-12-25 06:02:53] arbitrage001 : j8: are you sure
[2016-12-25 06:02:59] j8 : of course not
[2016-12-25 06:02:59] rapidtrades : in that scenario usd/cnh could be up but u could be down as chinese exchanges trade at discount to us
[2016-12-25 06:03:16] j8 : but it has some asymmetric risks that i like
[2016-12-25 06:03:34] rapidtrades : like a china ban sinking ur trade?
[2016-12-25 06:04:32] j8 : well, that's the downside risk
[2016-12-25 06:04:40] arbitrage001 : china ban will probably benefit what j8 suggest
[2016-12-25 06:04:45] laisee : wow. China gonna ban Bitcoin for the 288th time ...
[2016-12-25 06:05:02] arbitrage001 : when premiun turns discount
[2016-12-25 06:05:09] j8 : usdcny drops, and china is at a discount in march. i just think it's more likely to go the other way