This is a mirror of the original BitMEX trollbox archive that used to be online here.
BitMEX disabled their archive after the DDOS attack so I have decided to make my mirror publicly available.

Well now, a few days after I made this mirror available to the public, the original archive from BitMEX is online again.
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[2015-07-10 06:24:23] BitMEX_Arthur : hey man if it makes us all richer and gets more vol back
[2015-07-10 06:24:24] BitMEX_Arthur : let's go
[2015-07-10 06:24:28] goat : hahaha agreed
[2015-07-10 06:24:29] BitMEX_Arthur : humans will be humans
[2015-07-10 06:24:36] goat : my cold storage is safe from them lol
[2015-07-10 06:24:52] goat : here check this out too hold on
[2015-07-10 06:25:11] goat : https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=nl&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2F8btc.com%2Fthread-20406-1-1.html&sandbox=1
[2015-07-10 06:25:21] goat : oops here
[2015-07-10 06:25:22] goat : http://8btc.com/thread-20406-4-1.html
[2015-07-10 06:25:27] goat : you can translate it yourself if you need to
[2015-07-10 06:25:37] goat : i bought some dash today in case they pump that next
[2015-07-10 06:26:38] BitMEX_Arthur : they must be bag holders
[2015-07-10 06:26:42] BitMEX_Arthur : why pick litecoin
[2015-07-10 06:26:47] BitMEX_Arthur : they would make way more money in a more illiquid coin
[2015-07-10 06:27:01] goat : yeah but its not on the big exchanges
[2015-07-10 06:27:17] goat : other alts arent i mean
[2015-07-10 06:27:20] goat : ltc is
[2015-07-10 06:27:24] BitMEX_Arthur : tru
[2015-07-10 06:27:26] BitMEX_Arthur : it's on okc and btcchina
[2015-07-10 06:27:34] BitMEX_Arthur : and a chinese guy created it
[2015-07-10 06:27:36] goat : huobi
[2015-07-10 06:27:38] goat : bfx
[2015-07-10 06:27:43] goat : btce
[2015-07-10 06:28:24] BitMEX_Arthur : "This is crazy. Something like 22% of all mined LTC has moved through that address. I'm beginning to think this is for real. Has anyone uncovered any more info on the people behind this? I wonder where the other 7 million LTC have gone. There are batches of 500 --- something like 8000 tx in the past month or so -- still being sent. Hundreds today. Crazy....."
[2015-07-10 06:28:30] goat : yeah i saw that earlier
[2015-07-10 06:28:37] goat : redic
[2015-07-10 06:29:04] BitMEX_Arthur : the amounts on there are staggering
[2015-07-10 06:29:34] goat : and fontas was saying he wanted 900k ltc lol... peanuts compared to this
[2015-07-10 06:30:12] BitMEX_Arthur : so obvi they pay out people and cash out LTC/BTC then hit the bid for CNY in BTC
[2015-07-10 06:30:15] BitMEX_Arthur : makes complete sense
[2015-07-10 06:30:22] BitMEX_Arthur : and is why Bitcoin hasn't been following LTC
[2015-07-10 06:30:30] goat : yeah
[2015-07-10 06:30:37] goat : there is obvious btc price supression
[2015-07-10 06:30:41] goat : there have been hidden asks on bfx all day
[2015-07-10 06:30:43] goat : big ones
[2015-07-10 06:31:44] goat : and im convinced this all ties into the blockchain spam thing somehow
[2015-07-10 06:31:45] goat : but im not sure yet
[2015-07-10 06:33:14] goat : ok i have to get some work done and get to bed, too much time playing with crypto this week so far lol
[2015-07-10 06:33:22] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-07-10 06:33:23] goat : talk to you tomorrow
[2015-07-10 06:33:34] BitMEX_Arthur : i'm definitely going to write about this
[2015-07-10 08:12:45] BitMEX_Arthur : https://blog.bitmex.com/chinese-promoter-pumping-litecoin-via-ponzi-scheme/
[2015-07-10 09:18:43] goat : holy fuck dude
[2015-07-10 09:18:52] goat : i top ticked that and dumped my entire ltc trading stash
[2015-07-10 09:19:05] goat : into btc
[2015-07-10 09:19:06] BitMEX_Arthur : holy shit
[2015-07-10 09:19:13] BitMEX_Arthur : china spot is 317
[2015-07-10 09:19:16] goat : yeah
[2015-07-10 09:19:39] goat : remember when i told you we would wake up one day and the price would be bonkers lol
[2015-07-10 09:19:42] goat : this is partway there
[2015-07-10 09:19:55] BitMEX_Arthur : did you read my article
[2015-07-10 09:20:00] goat : yeah it was good :D
[2015-07-10 09:20:06] goat : timing was fucking perfect
[2015-07-10 09:20:07] goat : lol
[2015-07-10 09:20:09] goat : literally
[2015-07-10 09:20:17] goat : couldnt have timed it better to the minute
[2015-07-10 09:59:06] uiop : some folks got banga
[2015-07-10 09:59:15] BitMEX_Arthur : yep
[2015-07-10 10:33:22] chromaticcr : seriously
[2015-07-10 10:33:34] BitMEX_Arthur : this has been crazy
[2015-07-10 10:33:45] chromaticcr : both ltc/btc
[2015-07-10 10:33:59] chromaticcr : wtf are those chinese thinking
[2015-07-10 10:34:13] BitMEX_Arthur : did you see our article about
[2015-07-10 10:36:43] chromaticcr : not yet
[2015-07-10 10:37:44] chromaticcr : ponzi litecoin one?
[2015-07-10 10:37:44] BitMEX_Arthur : https://blog.bitmex.com/chinese-promoter-pumping-litecoin-via-ponzi-scheme/
[2015-07-10 10:37:47] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah
[2015-07-10 10:38:10] chromaticcr : got some chinese media source that some company or whatever are pitching LTC to dama
[2015-07-10 10:38:14] chromaticcr : Chinese Dama
[2015-07-10 10:38:29] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah i have it in that articl
[2015-07-10 10:38:35] BitMEX_Arthur : a classic ponzi in ltc
[2015-07-10 10:39:48] chromaticcr : and obviously okcoin is behind their back
[2015-07-10 12:19:40] BitMEX_Sam : BTW if any of you are at Inside Bitcoins Chicago send me an email at sam@bitmex.com
[2015-07-10 12:37:15] joequant : OMG
[2015-07-10 12:37:25] joequant : I thought I was going to be able to relax this weekend.
[2015-07-10 12:37:35] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-07-10 12:37:42] BitMEX_Arthur : LTC perfect pump and dump
[2015-07-10 12:40:37] joequant : good news/bad news. good news is that my hedges worked and I was able to sleep through the pump-dump with basically zero p/l
[2015-07-10 12:40:45] joequant : that's also the bad news :-(
[2015-07-10 12:40:50] BitMEX_Arthur : you sold puts on hsi
[2015-07-10 12:40:55] BitMEX_Arthur : u must have made a killing
[2015-07-10 12:41:54] joequant : no. I was overexposed last week.
[2015-07-10 12:42:19] BitMEX_Arthur : skew must be massive
[2015-07-10 12:42:36] BitMEX_Arthur : i guess problem is getting borrow
[2015-07-10 12:42:55] joequant : the trouble is that most of the traders just look at the bid-ask spread.
[2015-07-10 12:43:28] joequant : most have some idea of what implied vol is. most people don't know care what smile and skew are.
[2015-07-10 12:43:54] joequant : And I'm going to be spending the next two months trying to interface to the crap software that the brokers provide.
[2015-07-10 12:47:38] chromaticcr : arb alert: still 13$ spread on 796, and 13 hours left, good luck
[2015-07-10 12:49:32] BitMEX_Arthur : oh shit
[2015-07-10 12:49:57] chromaticcr : :)
[2015-07-10 12:56:53] joequant : Are the exchange default swaps ready :-)
[2015-07-10 12:56:56] joequant : ?
[2015-07-10 12:57:10] BitMEX_Arthur : we have been working on 20x
[2015-07-10 12:57:21] BitMEX_Arthur : once that is done and a few other things we will get around to it
[2015-07-10 13:00:45] joequant : So you won't have a 796 default swap ready in the next 13 hours, I assume :-) :-)
[2015-07-10 13:00:56] BitMEX_Arthur : nope
[2015-07-10 13:01:04] joequant : dang :-)
[2015-07-10 13:06:53] chromaticcr : we got ~300BTC in the 796 pool
[2015-07-10 13:07:21] chromaticcr : make good use of that XDD
[2015-07-10 18:58:36] cengel : xbuu15 has bids that are not in descending order
[2015-07-10 18:58:55] cengel : also after refresh
[2015-07-10 18:59:05] cengel : woop nm now its fine
[2015-07-11 01:07:17] BitMEX_Arthur : Well that was fun, market seems to be quiet now
[2015-07-11 02:26:50] j8 : BitMEX_Arthur: just glad i wasn't hedged on okcoin
[2015-07-11 02:28:06] BitMEX_Sam : Did they have trouble today? Was offline most of the day
[2015-07-11 02:28:59] j8 : okcoin.cn has been pretty unreachable
[2015-07-11 02:29:47] j8 : i think i heard people weren't able to close on .com futures
[2015-07-11 02:30:54] j8 : but mainly, mad wicks
[2015-07-11 02:31:46] BitMEX_Sam : Ah. Yeah movement today was really something
[2015-07-11 02:34:07] j8 : it was, and i sure picked the wrong night to short `BVOL`
[2015-07-11 02:34:28] j8 : could have been much worse though.
[2015-07-11 04:22:45] BitMEX_Arthur : What the fuck is happening
[2015-07-11 05:33:10] gmikeska07 : Lol gently caress
[2015-07-11 05:33:31] gmikeska07 : Fuck <--- test
[2015-07-11 06:09:07] uiop : https://news.huobi.com/public/picture/edit/1507/130129.jpg'
[2015-07-11 12:55:43] Blargwaffle : 清昌创叮咚
[2015-07-11 18:51:50] j8 : so i just did a rough calculation: if `BVOL24H` was measured on huobi it would have settled around 16 the day before last (instead of 5.21 on bitfinex)
[2015-07-11 18:52:30] joequant : I think what happened is that all of the punters that were playing the stock market have come back to bitcoin.
[2015-07-11 18:58:22] j8 : this combined with the big ltc selloff. and it all started right after okc weekly futures settlement
[2015-07-11 19:34:35] goat : i came on vacation with an extra computer screen bc of this shit and have to pay 19.99 per day for broadband in my room
[2015-07-11 19:34:39] goat : thanks bitcoin
[2015-07-11 20:04:48] j8 : i spent $25 on mobile data this week thanks to bitcoin, now i don't feel so bad.
[2015-07-11 22:51:41] goat : BitMEX_Arthur: great job with that article man, you got a shoutout in bitcoin magazine
[2015-07-11 22:52:31] goat : i wish i had the time to write it, but whatever... if anyone else in the community is going to get credit im happy its you
[2015-07-12 02:48:07] chrisxbt : it's the price to pay for trading, but what's your plan cost, I was able to get pay as you go , $30 for a GB
[2015-07-12 03:38:44] j8 : $5 per 250 MB over the plan limit of 1 GB. highway robbery if you ask me
[2015-07-12 04:40:56] chrisxbt : lol , well pay as you go is a lot cheaper for me
[2015-07-12 10:28:12] laisee : odds on grexit looking better by the hour
[2015-07-12 11:06:38] BitMEX_Arthur : how is the euro meeting going today
[2015-07-12 11:20:39] joequant : bad
[2015-07-12 11:21:16] joequant : the cool thing is that there is thing massive game of chicken.
[2015-07-12 11:21:29] joequant : no one has plans for an orderly exit.
[2015-07-12 11:21:45] joequant : intentionally.
[2015-07-12 11:23:54] joequant : all the new buying seems europe drive and not china driven.
[2015-07-12 11:26:03] laisee : Seems like Germany is planning for Grexit, cheaper to pay a few billion in aid each year than give another 80+ Billion for potential reforms. Bitcoin up by end of day ...
[2015-07-12 11:32:03] joequant : I'm closing all my hedges and just relying on stop loss orders.
[2015-07-12 11:32:34] joequant : Taking a loss, because tomorrow is going to be a wild ride.
[2015-07-12 11:32:36] laisee : yolo
[2015-07-12 11:33:54] joequant : The markets are almost to the point that I can't do any real hedging anyway, and if Greece exists, the smartest thing is to just go massively long.
[2015-07-12 11:34:02] joequant : exits
[2015-07-12 11:34:44] joequant : I can easily see XBT going to 400 or 500 by the end of the week if Greece leaves without a plan.
[2015-07-12 11:36:51] laisee : it could be a wild week or so. until ECB/ECM/EC(??) buys a greek bank and starts handling out euro notes to quel the riots ... one scenario . .
[2015-07-12 11:41:59] joequant : I'm just hoping that the Chinese markets don't crash again last week.
[2015-07-12 11:42:07] joequant : like last week.
[2015-07-12 11:46:50] joequant : it occurs to me that looking for pennies on the beach is not a good strategy if a tsnaumi is coming.
[2015-07-12 12:00:06] laisee : or, like picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer?
[2015-07-12 12:03:42] joequant : No. I'm used to picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer.
[2015-07-12 12:04:10] joequant : Normally I just keep my eye out for the bulldozer and if no one is in the driver seat, I feel safe.
[2015-07-12 12:04:35] joequant : In this situation, the hurricane might lift up the bulldozer and smash me.
[2015-07-12 12:04:59] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-07-12 12:05:14] joequant : Under normal situations there are three or four things that might move bitcoin.
[2015-07-12 12:05:35] joequant : When Greece, we are in unknown territiory.
[2015-07-12 12:05:47] joequant : And it could go in either direction.
[2015-07-12 12:05:48] BitMEX_Arthur : seems like germany wants them gone
[2015-07-12 12:06:58] BitMEX_Arthur : bitvc.com down
[2015-07-12 12:07:10] joequant : Yup, but I can imagine scenarios in which the price of bitcoin drops down to $200 in an hour.
[2015-07-12 12:07:58] joequant : In any event I want to simplify my portfolio so that I can move quickly if something weird happens.
[2015-07-12 12:09:46] joequant : That's another issue. I want to limit my exposure in case an exchange goes down either for an hour or permanently.
[2015-07-12 12:09:58] joequant : This would be a wonderful time for someone to DDOS an exchange.
[2015-07-12 12:26:12] laisee : I thought there was some DDOS going on during the LTC PnD
[2015-07-12 13:16:25] joequant : Yup, and now is a good time to mess up the markets.
[2015-07-12 13:52:47] chrisxbt : yeah I'm quite diversified, but it's not simple
[2015-07-12 13:53:28] chrisxbt : got some btc on okcoin futures, bitmex for some XBT futures, coinut get some binary options or vanilla
[2015-07-12 13:56:28] j8 : how is coinut?
[2015-07-12 13:59:25] chrisxbt : crap you can't cancel partial fills?
[2015-07-12 13:59:30] chrisxbt : Coinut is awesome!
[2015-07-12 14:01:03] j8 : sure you can
[2015-07-12 14:01:19] chrisxbt : ah scroll ri
[2015-07-12 14:01:45] joequant : I'm trying to "de-diversify" myself. Too many moving parts.
[2015-07-12 14:02:19] chrisxbt : 3 exchanges, all different products
[2015-07-12 14:02:38] chrisxbt : I'm fine with it. Different opportunities
[2015-07-12 14:06:31] chrisxbt : Oh so about coinut, used to trade the 30 minute binaries but now I mainly go into weekly, biweekly, daily positions. For options, I find premium is really high so I usually sell options. 12% limited upside but it's good.
[2015-07-12 14:15:53] chrisxbt : Also right now it's actually cheaper to long XBT quanto then weekly futures on okcoin
[2015-07-12 14:17:28] j8 : yeah i don't quite understand why the XBU series runs so much lower than okcoin too.
[2015-07-12 14:19:23] chrisxbt : oh it's only 2.5x
[2015-07-12 14:19:28] chrisxbt : XBU is basically spot
[2015-07-12 14:22:46] chrisxbt : woah quarterlies is 305 XBU
[2015-07-12 14:23:03] j8 : yeah arb that shiz
[2015-07-12 14:23:54] chrisxbt : hah, nice try, I rather stick with my 10x
[2015-07-12 14:24:11] j8 : i don't really see how more leverage means higher premium, what am i missing
[2015-07-12 14:25:06] chrisxbt : actually there's a premium on XBT quanto because you make more money if it goes up
[2015-07-12 14:25:17] j8 : yes
[2015-07-12 14:27:38] chrisxbt : also it's really funny I made a lot more last run up to 300
[2015-07-12 14:28:12] chrisxbt : got rekt on the way down, and this time I've been too scared to get into positions
[2015-07-12 14:28:46] j8 : but XBU vs okcoin contracts. almost 9% difference on quarterlies. the index calculation, leverage and liquidity are all thats different
[2015-07-12 14:29:25] j8 : yeah i took some big losses coming down from 300 last time too.
[2015-07-12 14:30:47] chrisxbt : also I'm on trader fee schedule
[2015-07-12 14:30:56] chrisxbt : can't trade quarterlies XBU, no liquidity
[2015-07-12 14:31:13] joequant : There are a few gotchas.
[2015-07-12 14:31:19] chrisxbt : Actually I made a lot of money going down, big from 300
[2015-07-12 14:31:27] joequant : The Chinese futures do weird things with their index prices.
[2015-07-12 14:31:45] chrisxbt : big short
[2015-07-12 14:31:50] joequant : Also the difference between the XBT and XBU is a function of the volatility.
[2015-07-12 14:32:34] joequant : https://bitquant.wordpress.com/2015/04/14/magic-formula-for-xbt-and-xbu-futures/
[2015-07-12 14:32:56] chrisxbt : but then I got too high, I fomo closed short at 270 on a retrace, and then I actually longed big around 260 for nasdaq pump. And that was a total failure.
[2015-07-12 14:32:57] joequant : Because the XBT are a quadratic function, there is a term for the volatility.
[2015-07-12 14:33:23] joequant : I'm just going long for everything.
[2015-07-12 14:33:49] joequant : The futures/exchange arb is huge but it's just too difficult to hedge.
[2015-07-12 14:34:27] joequant : I just keep running out of margin, and I gave up a few hours ago.
[2015-07-12 14:35:20] j8 : yeah it's just not the time for hedging.
[2015-07-12 14:36:03] joequant : nice arb on XBUZ15.
[2015-07-12 14:36:35] laisee : yeah, climb aboard the rocket or stay at home. No easy way to do both.
[2015-07-12 14:37:16] chrisxbt : well you can do 3x okcoin too
[2015-07-12 14:37:36] chrisxbt : $15 premium is decent interest
[2015-07-12 14:37:38] laisee : only 3x?
[2015-07-12 14:37:56] chrisxbt : you can use less if you're hedgin
[2015-07-12 14:38:05] chrisxbt : up to 20x of course
[2015-07-12 14:38:29] laisee : to match the 2 markets, I guess
[2015-07-12 14:39:20] j8 : joequant: how's that magic formula working out in practice?
[2015-07-12 14:39:44] joequant : I haven't done a detail analysis.
[2015-07-12 14:40:01] joequant : But the spread between XBT and XBU increases when you have high volatility.
[2015-07-12 14:40:12] joequant : So the arb between them is a vol play.
[2015-07-12 14:41:02] chrisxbt : yeah I was really lucky to get $303 on XBT futures
[2015-07-12 14:49:29] joequant : It looks like the rise is european driven and not china driven. A assume that lots of Greeks want to get their money out.
[2015-07-12 14:51:01] chrisxbt : that greek thing is just a narrative spun
[2015-07-12 14:51:08] chrisxbt : the greek bitcoin thing
[2015-07-12 14:55:02] joequant : I don't think that bitcoin is usable for most Greeks, but a small fraction that use it can drive up prices.
[2015-07-12 14:56:34] j8 : its a bit late for greek people to be buying, but a lot of other countries are on the brink, and with all the media about bitcoin as a safe haven, and no gold rally...
[2015-07-12 15:00:00] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah greeks cannot buy bitcoin
[2015-07-12 15:00:04] BitMEX_Arthur : however the rest of europe can wake up
[2015-07-12 15:00:17] BitMEX_Arthur : before germany crushes them as well
[2015-07-12 15:01:52] joequant : Anyone know why there isn't a gold rally?
[2015-07-12 15:01:58] joequant : I'm a bit surprised.
[2015-07-12 15:02:59] j8 : i think a lot of people are surprised, which is why the media has latched on to the bitcoin safe haven thing.
[2015-07-12 15:03:53] j8 : i don't think the gold money went to bitcoin, but that seems to be the narrative
[2015-07-12 15:13:31] BitMEX_Arthur : d-day for grexit is tomorrow
[2015-07-12 15:13:58] BitMEX_Arthur : they have 24hrs to accept the new frame work or they are finshed
[2015-07-12 15:16:05] goat : this hotel just kicked me out of the room lol
[2015-07-12 15:16:07] goat : bc i was trading
[2015-07-12 15:16:10] goat : and didnt want to leave
[2015-07-12 15:16:20] BitMEX_Arthur : what do you mean
[2015-07-12 15:16:24] chrisxbt : it's just a proposal to extend loans right?
[2015-07-12 15:16:35] goat : lol i just didnt leave when they told me to
[2015-07-12 15:16:38] chrisxbt : more loans
[2015-07-12 15:16:44] goat : and got extended check out and still didnt leave
[2015-07-12 15:16:47] BitMEX_Arthur : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-12/eurogroup-fails-reach-deal-gives-greece-24-hours-accept-draconian-terms
[2015-07-12 15:17:16] chrisxbt : there was this good op-ed on the guardian
[2015-07-12 15:18:13] chrisxbt : It's really hard to leave a monetary union, Greece is going to have a hard time, lots of barter
[2015-07-12 15:18:52] chrisxbt : or they could still use euros?
[2015-07-12 15:19:03] BitMEX_Arthur : well they could use euro but couldn't print them
[2015-07-12 15:19:10] BitMEX_Arthur : they have to issue a new currency and devalue
[2015-07-12 15:19:40] BitMEX_Arthur : or a first step would be that the government pays all bills in drachma and taxes are due in drachma
[2015-07-12 15:20:18] BitMEX_Arthur : nationalise the banks, take the deposits and use as "hard" currency for imports
[2015-07-12 15:23:56] laisee : and print some IOU's for govt wages, pensions etc until they can import proper printing presses for Drachmas ...
[2015-07-12 15:24:23] joequant : It would be total hell, but that's why the referendum was important.
[2015-07-12 15:25:19] laisee : hmmm. politically everyone is arranging cover for the worst case.
[2015-07-12 15:25:52] BitMEX_Arthur : Germany clearly wants them out
[2015-07-12 15:27:38] laisee : agreed. its becoming quite clear they mean to show the greeks and anyone else, how bad it is not to pay your debts.
[2015-07-12 15:28:05] joequant : And funnily the US wants them in. I think the US is worried that Russia will bail out the Greeks.
[2015-07-12 15:29:06] joequant : The good news is that no one in Asia seems to care. I'm hoping that this means the markets won't tank tomorrow.
[2015-07-12 15:29:50] joequant : I'm trying to relax and not think about 9:00 AM HK time.
[2015-07-12 15:30:11] BitMEX_Arthur : what's your asian book look like
[2015-07-12 15:30:18] BitMEX_Arthur : you still short vol via short puts
[2015-07-12 15:30:32] laisee : its been coming for so long, probably zero impact on markets
[2015-07-12 15:31:40] joequant : Well, I have some short put positions that I'm trying to get out of.
[2015-07-12 15:31:48] joequant : But zero liquidity.
[2015-07-12 15:31:54] BitMEX_Arthur : buy why is that a problem, just buy spot
[2015-07-12 15:32:00] BitMEX_Arthur : earn the premium
[2015-07-12 15:32:20] joequant : The trouble is that it seems to be impossible to short stock.
[2015-07-12 15:32:44] joequant : I'm not the HK option trader in the firm. The other partner (my wife) is.
[2015-07-12 15:32:47] BitMEX_Arthur : oh yeah short puts
[2015-07-12 15:32:55] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah borrow must be impossible
[2015-07-12 15:33:04] joequant : Uh huh.
[2015-07-12 15:33:10] joequant : Got trapped.
[2015-07-12 15:33:17] BitMEX_Arthur : well are these big caps
[2015-07-12 15:33:19] BitMEX_Arthur : or small caps
[2015-07-12 15:33:32] joequant : It's a midcap software firm. Great company.
[2015-07-12 15:33:44] joequant : But their options have very little liquidity in the best of times.
[2015-07-12 15:33:56] joequant : That's how we ended up with a large exposure.
[2015-07-12 15:34:17] BitMEX_Arthur : i mean the vol skew must be massive
[2015-07-12 15:34:25] BitMEX_Arthur : can u buy the calls or just too expensive
[2015-07-12 15:34:33] joequant : No liquidity.
[2015-07-12 15:34:42] joequant : Once this is over, I'd like to start market making.
[2015-07-12 15:34:52] joequant : But that will take a few weeks of study.
[2015-07-12 15:35:40] joequant : But we've reduced our exposure so that we can survive unless things go really, really bad.
[2015-07-12 15:36:11] joequant : But it's really scary to have your portfolio lose 50% of value in 30 minutes which was what happened last week.
[2015-07-12 15:37:07] joequant : There's an off chance that this might happen again, but are positions are such that we can withstand a 50% crash.
[2015-07-12 15:37:23] joequant : Financial bungee jumping.
[2015-07-12 15:41:07] j8 : sounds exciting.
[2015-07-12 15:41:19] joequant : Too exciting.
[2015-07-12 15:41:58] joequant : I'm hoping that I've measured the bungee cords correctly, but I'd prefer not to get pushed off the cliff.
[2015-07-12 15:45:20] j8 : best of luck.
[2015-07-12 15:47:25] j8 : some interesting info on the okcoin blog regarding the ddos a couple days ago
[2015-07-12 15:49:05] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah they are paying out 2k XBT
[2015-07-12 16:02:54] jerryd : didn't china make it illegal to short stocks?
[2015-07-12 16:09:54] BitMEX_Arthur : you could never borrow stock to short it in china
[2015-07-12 16:10:06] BitMEX_Arthur : they have stopped certain people and institutions from long selling holdings
[2015-07-12 16:10:26] BitMEX_Arthur : and if they think you are manipulating the market they will come after you criminally
[2015-07-12 16:26:53] joequant : Short selling in PRC has always been highly restricted.
[2015-07-12 20:26:22] cengel : arthur, how can non-chinese trade their stocks?
[2015-07-12 23:36:28] BitMEX_Arthur : cengel: you can't really own a shares if you aren't chinese
[2015-07-12 23:44:11] chrisxbt : Can you have shares of a holding company?
[2015-07-12 23:44:41] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah that's what alibaba is but it's questionable if you actually own anything
[2015-07-12 23:44:56] BitMEX_Arthur : to own A shares is pretty much impossible unless you go via a few ETFs
[2015-07-13 02:30:40] joequant : The problem isn't the shares.
[2015-07-13 02:30:58] joequant : The problem is getting access to RMB to trade the shares.
[2015-07-13 02:31:19] joequant : I don't have a problem since I'm in Hong Kong.
[2015-07-13 02:31:52] joequant : Also Huobi has this thing where you can trade Chinese shares with bitcoin, although I haven't looked at it closely.
[2015-07-13 02:32:29] joequant : You can also get B shares and H shares and N shares.
[2015-07-13 02:33:05] joequant : Also I think it might be possible to trade A shares though HK. Interactive brokers seems to have something.
[2015-07-13 02:33:20] BitMEX_Arthur : I mean you have stock connect
[2015-07-13 02:33:24] BitMEX_Arthur : if you have HKD you can trade A shares
[2015-07-13 02:33:43] joequant : Yeah and it's easy to get HKD.
[2015-07-13 02:36:10] joequant : The Chinese government is trying to open up the market, but opening up the market has side effects.
[2015-07-13 02:36:32] joequant : One thing that I've found is that most small HK investors know what they are doing. Most small Mainland investors don't.
[2015-07-13 03:10:59] Blargwaffle : Most HKers don't shit in public, too.
[2015-07-13 04:14:18] chrisxbt : Bitmex, your fair basis for XBT could probably be adjusted a bit.
[2015-07-13 05:14:32] BitMEX_Arthur : chrisxbt: will take a look
[2015-07-13 05:15:20] chromaticcr : just a notice to everyone, okcoin is taking 1kBTC from the socialize loss fund to compensate people who lose money in the downtime on okcoin.cn
[2015-07-13 05:15:37] chromaticcr : such a dick move
[2015-07-13 05:15:59] BitMEX_Arthur : oh so that's what they did
[2015-07-13 05:16:09] BitMEX_Arthur : i thought they took 1k of retained earnings
[2015-07-13 05:16:21] chromaticcr : 1k from their pocket, 1k from the fund
[2015-07-13 05:17:35] chromaticcr : i bet they will just take it from the user's wallet next time, srsly
[2015-07-13 07:20:22] chrisxbt : srsly, what are you biatching about?
[2015-07-13 07:21:20] chrisxbt : they're compensating losers, and you're turning it into something negative
[2015-07-13 08:03:50] laisee : yeah, same as Germany and Greece ... ;-)
[2015-07-13 08:04:17] BitMEX_Arthur : lol this deal is dog shit
[2015-07-13 08:04:31] BitMEX_Arthur : if they pass this in parliament, people will be in the streets
[2015-07-13 08:05:55] chromaticcr : okcoin is dead again
[2015-07-13 08:07:35] laisee : maybe its a good deal if everyone is equally pissed off
[2015-07-13 08:07:51] chromaticcr : except StarXu
[2015-07-13 08:09:02] laisee : was referring to EURO crap-fest, but if okcoin is unhappy then it s a good start to the week ...
[2015-07-13 08:17:54] joequant : i picked the wrong time to submit my doc to immigration.
[2015-07-13 08:18:18] joequant : lost a few hundred usd, but I'll chalk it up to immigration processing fees.
[2015-07-13 08:18:25] joequant : :-)
[2015-07-13 08:18:33] joequant : was not in front of a terminal when this happened.
[2015-07-13 08:45:46] jerryd : wow. Waiting for the riots in the streets.
[2015-07-13 08:56:34] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah this deal is terrible
[2015-07-13 08:57:10] BitMEX_Arthur : parliament will pass it, but there will need to be another government formed, and there is no way the people will vote in a new party that agrees to these terms
[2015-07-13 08:57:18] BitMEX_Arthur : they bought themselves a few weeks at most
[2015-07-13 15:55:28] goat : http://shitco.in/2015/07/13/the-coming-greek-bail-ins-bitcoin-users-not-affected/
[2015-07-13 19:31:23] Swedishnut : Bought Politicians Purchase Headlines to Buy Time To Hope They Can Control. The People Will Not Be Led to Slaughter and Slavery.
[2015-07-13 19:32:12] Swedishnut : My Gut feeling. Revolt and Revolution are nigh in Greece and what a fitting place to Make current History
[2015-07-14 04:17:14] laisee : hmmm, I would always be wary of media-led impressions. probably if the EURO cash arrives in Greece and banks re-open the people will not reviolt.
[2015-07-14 04:20:29] BitMEX_Arthur : The banks will not be allowed to reopen
[2015-07-14 04:20:32] BitMEX_Arthur : even if ecb gives more support
[2015-07-14 04:20:36] BitMEX_Arthur : they would be emptied in hours
[2015-07-14 05:44:56] laisee : possibly they can increase daily ATM amounts to 100/150 Euros.
[2015-07-14 05:48:57] goat : http://shitco.in/2015/07/14/the-ltc-pump-dump-and-a-post-mortem-for-both-bulls-and-bears/
[2015-07-14 06:44:23] uiop : https://i.imgur.com/mUPwxxI.png
[2015-07-14 06:44:43] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-07-14 06:44:52] BitMEX_Arthur : Cameron in the UK says they won't contribute to the bailout
[2015-07-14 06:44:56] BitMEX_Arthur : this deal looks in trouble
[2015-07-14 06:47:51] uiop : one blurb in news ticker says tsipras "to step down" if doesnt the deal doesnt get greek parliament support
[2015-07-14 06:51:01] uiop : "resign"
[2015-07-14 08:04:08] chrisxbt : do you double count open interest?
[2015-07-14 08:26:18] BitMEX_Arthur : No
[2015-07-14 08:31:54] chrisxbt : sorry I put a negative connatation to double counting, what does open interest mean?
[2015-07-14 08:35:15] BitMEX_Arthur : The number of contracts outstanding
[2015-07-14 08:35:44] BitMEX_Arthur : If you and I trade 1 contract the open interest is 1
[2015-07-14 08:45:31] uiop : chrisxbt: open/open=+1, open/close=close/open=+0, close/close=-1
[2015-07-14 08:45:43] uiop : chrisxbt: <one party>/<the other>
[2015-07-14 09:27:01] chrisxbt : gotcha
[2015-07-14 09:54:11] uiop : http://i.imgur.com/vLhTtSL.png
[2015-07-14 12:10:46] BitMEX_Sam : uiop: Love that litecoin picture above.
[2015-07-14 12:34:04] goat : yeah, a lot of people got totally rekt
[2015-07-14 12:34:42] goat : i feel kinda bad for them, but they have to learn ig uess
[2015-07-14 12:35:31] goat : it sucks that the chinese ponzi thing was going on at the same time as the pump, i think that if people didnt have negative sentiment bc of the ponzi the market wouldnt have crashed so hard
[2015-07-14 12:36:08] Volnamege : здарова народ!!!
[2015-07-14 12:36:20] Volnamege : алло
[2015-07-14 12:37:02] Volnamege : как тут заработать бабло?
[2015-07-14 15:08:54] BitMEX_Sam : Sorry, we don't have any Russian employees, perhaps some of the users could help
[2015-07-14 15:34:50] Blargwaffle : 清昌创叮咚
[2015-07-14 15:35:07] Blargwaffle : Of course it'd be more convincing if my username was also Hanzi.
[2015-07-14 15:35:23] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-07-14 17:49:02] gmikeska07 : Heya! I have a deposit that is marked as "Completed" in the wallet history, but it isn't yet reflected in my total balance... Any ideas?
[2015-07-14 17:49:16] gmikeska07 : oh nvm it just posted... ;-)
[2015-07-14 18:05:57] BitMEX_Sam : :)
[2015-07-15 03:41:22] horlicks_ : I'm wondering if anyone's written an 'auto-hedger' type app that looks at their wallet on the blockchain and executes hedging trades when necessary. Has this been done?
[2015-07-15 03:41:42] BitMEX_Arthur : No it hasn't
[2015-07-15 03:42:00] BitMEX_Arthur : We want to work with wallet provides to come up with that kind of product in the near future
[2015-07-15 03:43:04] horlicks_ : Great, that would be a killer product
[2015-07-15 03:43:43] BitMEX_Arthur : horlicks_: how did you hear about BitMEX?
[2015-07-15 03:45:30] horlicks_ : A friend here said he watched a presentation you gave (iirc)
[2015-07-15 03:47:27] horlicks_ : We were discussing ways to protect against volatility in a bitcoin meetup and your company came up
[2015-07-15 03:51:33] BitMEX_Arthur : ah cool
[2015-07-15 06:23:10] atodorov07 : bitmex guys, just a heads up, my wallet qr is unscannable (I'm using blockchain)
[2015-07-15 06:25:43] atodorov07 : everything else is
[2015-07-15 06:25:44] atodorov07 : perfect
[2015-07-15 06:26:36] atodorov07 : I'm surprised lots of people are using shady, fake chinese gambling sites to trade , and not bitmex.
[2015-07-15 06:44:30] BitMEX_Arthur : We aim to change that in short order
[2015-07-15 09:17:25] chrisxbt : you'll be allowed to gamble at BitMEX soon too!
[2015-07-15 10:03:53] cosmossurferr : @BitMEX_Arthur Are you the owner of this platform?
[2015-07-15 10:33:24] BitMEX_Arthur : cosmossurferr: I am one of the co-founders and I am the CEO
[2015-07-15 11:31:20] goat : BitMEX_Arthur: i actually have been working on a sick business plan for fun regarding a product/service that we plan on using bitmex for the back end of (if we can move forward).
[2015-07-15 11:31:42] goat : im still speaking with my friends aka potential partners and trying to iron out some details/look into vc funding
[2015-07-15 11:31:53] BitMEX_Arthur : nice what would the product do
[2015-07-15 11:31:53] BitMEX_Arthur : ?
[2015-07-15 11:32:03] goat : who knows where it will go, i make up business plans all the time for fun lol
[2015-07-15 11:32:11] goat : i can email it to you, not saying it in public
[2015-07-15 11:32:18] goat : its actually a sick idea
[2015-07-15 11:32:18] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah shoot me a mail
[2015-07-15 11:43:19] goat : sent
[2015-07-15 11:44:18] goat : http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/cr15186.pdf?hootPostID=2cd94f17236d717acd9949448d794045
[2015-07-15 12:36:29] laisee : greek debt relief already means no debt or interest payments until 2023 http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/18/eurozone-greece-esm-idUSL5N0Z41VU20150618
[2015-07-15 13:27:35] jerryd : you know that article is a month old yeah?
[2015-07-15 13:28:05] jerryd : and the IMF report published yesterday pretty much refuts that completely.
[2015-07-15 13:28:58] jerryd : http://www.cbsnews.com/news/greece-debt-deeper-imf-alexis-tsipras-revolt-over-greek-bailout-austerity/
[2015-07-15 14:59:22] laisee : details on 2 previous debt bailouts haven't changed in last month, so article still stands. IMF report seems to ignore 2 prev bailouts and NPV of debt o/s ... all the way to 2053. I wish my bank would give me such good terms ...
[2015-07-15 15:47:20] cengel : NPV adjustments arent the same as a haircut to principal...
[2015-07-15 15:47:28] cengel : not exactly a "Bailout" per se
[2015-07-15 16:18:32] laisee : amounts to the same thing, imho. there were haircuts for private debt, btw. question is: why is the IMF making so noise on this?
[2015-07-15 22:26:09] chrisxbt : oh marketmakers back on XBU
[2015-07-15 22:26:23] chrisxbt : it was a bit empty this weekend
[2015-07-15 23:40:13] j8 : `XBTN15` was trading lower than `XBUN15` for a bit just now
[2015-07-15 23:40:55] BitMEX_Arthur : The bid is quite high on `XBUN15`
[2015-07-15 23:42:04] j8 : yeah there were like 500 contracts sitting there.
[2015-07-15 23:42:43] j8 : one stubborn marker maker
[2015-07-15 23:45:26] chrisxbt : got a nice scalp, 299 -> 291.5 on XBT
[2015-07-15 23:49:21] ksinvest : i guess i'm not the only one running a buggy "research" bot here. my market maker lost all its June profits this week...
[2015-07-16 00:05:20] chrisxbt : Are you hedging?
[2015-07-16 00:05:30] chrisxbt : ksinvest:
[2015-07-16 00:12:17] ksinvest : no, the market maker i'm currently running is unhedged
[2015-07-16 00:13:26] chrisxbt : so it's more of a trading marketmaker bot
[2015-07-16 00:15:21] ksinvest : a hedged market maker would be more an arbitration strategy for me rather than a market making strategy
[2015-07-16 00:17:49] chrisxbt : ahhhh
[2015-07-16 00:18:19] chrisxbt : that makes sense
[2015-07-16 00:20:41] chrisxbt : what contracts were you on?
[2015-07-16 00:20:58] ksinvest : my bot was just too slow sometimes and did not adapt the spread to volatility fast enough....
[2015-07-16 00:21:05] ksinvest : i'm only on XBU24H
[2015-07-16 00:22:30] ksinvest : currently 250 contracts on bid and ask, still making most of the trades on XBU24H
[2015-07-16 00:23:50] BitMEX_Sam : There's a lot more liquidity on the monthlies
[2015-07-16 00:24:27] chrisxbt : well market makers make money on the spread
[2015-07-16 00:34:18] ksinvest : i will maybe switch to monthly contracts when the bot is more improved but making money is not my primary interest here. this is more research project.
[2015-07-16 00:43:05] ksinvest : i'm actually interested in regulatory aspects of "cyborg finance" (high frequency trading). my research questions is: who are the "bad robots" and who are the "good" ones.
[2015-07-16 01:20:19] chrisxbt : wow it wicked up to
[2015-07-16 01:20:23] chrisxbt : 308.5
[2015-07-16 01:20:37] chrisxbt : XBTN15
[2015-07-16 01:21:14] chrisxbt : hmm it's hard to define good and bad
[2015-07-16 01:36:26] BitMEX_Arthur : good = makes money
[2015-07-16 01:36:28] BitMEX_Arthur : bad = loses money
[2015-07-16 01:38:14] chrisxbt : hah
[2015-07-16 01:38:47] chrisxbt : though I think he's trying to address some sort of philosophical question.
[2015-07-16 01:40:49] BitMEX_Arthur : probably
[2015-07-16 01:42:41] chrisxbt : It depends whethers he's a Kant
[2015-07-16 01:54:50] chrisxbt : sucks to be you whoever had the 308.5 order. Seems like you placed a big limit and that's when the marketmaker was resetting the positions.
[2015-07-16 02:17:06] goat : i got lucky with that contract
[2015-07-16 02:17:26] goat : market maker hadn't moved bids down yet and i dumped mine into them when btc dumped
[2015-07-16 02:17:36] goat : looks like i should be able to buy them back at around the same price or cheaper if we keep dropping
[2015-07-16 02:18:26] chrisxbt : yeah I filled 3k at 299, there was a big premium
[2015-07-16 02:19:10] goat : yep, dumped everythng i had at a really good premium during that dump except the daily
[2015-07-16 02:20:37] goat : should have bought back on the dip but i needed dinner
[2015-07-16 04:26:36] ksinvest : BitMEX_Arthur: both should make money. a good bot makes prices more efficient even in high volatile situations. a bad bot e.g. exits the market when volatility gets too high and creates artificial volatility/makes prices more inefficient.
[2015-07-16 04:37:19] chrisxbt : if they make more volatility, other people can make money off of it
[2015-07-16 04:44:49] ksinvest : yes but take the 2010 NYSE Flash Crash, it can take some time until these traders enter a market
[2015-07-16 04:46:14] chrisxbt : they lost money with that
[2015-07-16 04:47:13] chrisxbt : interesting
[2015-07-16 04:47:17] chrisxbt : reading up on that
[2015-07-16 04:47:45] ksinvest : i believe that spoofing by a single trader was not the main problem of the 2010 crash. bots that could be easily reverse engineered and used as "useful idiots" were/are a problem...
[2015-07-16 04:48:55] chrisxbt : oh but idiots don't make money
[2015-07-16 04:49:03] laisee : combination of that traders spoofing and bots, maybe
[2015-07-16 04:49:16] chrisxbt : it's sort of like placing orders in front of a bot to get a better fill when they out bid you
[2015-07-16 04:49:45] laisee : if you watch a market closely you can see patterns generated by m/maker bots
[2015-07-16 04:50:47] laisee : esp if they follow a cancel/refill at higher/lower price level pattern as the market jumps.
[2015-07-16 04:51:07] ksinvest : useful-idiot-bots that are manipulated into exiting a market will not make money but they will also not lose any money in this situation (which is even more important to the owners of these bots)
[2015-07-16 04:52:23] chrisxbt : why won't they lose money from exiting a bad situation?
[2015-07-16 04:53:28] chrisxbt : also they found out the problem. Someone was making a big sell order. All he did was sell 9% of previous volume. And it was all market sells
[2015-07-16 04:53:28] laisee : as long as they can dump their position b4 other bots, Ok
[2015-07-16 04:53:39] chrisxbt : The price crashed because someone was willing to keep on market selling
[2015-07-16 04:54:05] laisee : bot selling panic
[2015-07-16 04:54:31] chrisxbt : that's the same as buying a breakout
[2015-07-16 04:55:13] laisee : bot buying panic?
[2015-07-16 04:55:22] chrisxbt : selling panic
[2015-07-16 04:55:25] chrisxbt : buying breakout up
[2015-07-16 04:55:33] laisee : sure
[2015-07-16 04:55:58] chrisxbt : and those bots will close at a profit offering liquidity up there
[2015-07-16 04:56:29] chrisxbt : really the whole problem was that someone was willing to keep market selling no matter the price
[2015-07-16 04:56:50] chrisxbt : and he paid the price for that
[2015-07-16 04:57:08] laisee : probably a bot, got fired next day ...
[2015-07-16 04:57:47] ksinvest : i didn't mean the effect of "closing positions" but of not placing any new orders anymore (exiting the market as a market maker)
[2015-07-16 04:58:36] chrisxbt : well they don't have any obligation to make markets
[2015-07-16 04:58:40] miratrader : ksinvest, are you going to keep your bot on XBU24H? If yours is the one with 200 ask @291.54, I like it a lot :-)
[2015-07-16 04:59:02] chrisxbt : lol he said he lost all the money he made last month
[2015-07-16 05:00:46] ksinvest : miratrader: my current bid and ask is 250
[2015-07-16 05:01:30] ksinvest : or better "his" bid and ask :)
[2015-07-16 05:02:22] miratrader : yeah, we had a bit of commotion on XBU24H last week. I think one or two market maker bots pulled out and the orderbook was very thin
[2015-07-16 05:03:15] miratrader : ksinvest, thanks. I like 250 bot as well but not as much as 200 bot :-)
[2015-07-16 05:05:52] ksinvest : you are welcome. i hope you didn't trade with my bot today. it was selling at 293-294 and then buying at 284-285 :)
[2015-07-16 05:10:02] ksinvest : the interesting thing about my bot is that even i don't know its maximum bid price / minimum ask price / minimum spread. this partially "blindfolded monkey behavior" is an insurance against reverse engineering that comes at a price :)
[2015-07-16 05:10:12] miratrader : no, didn't trade XBU24H last few days. I'm going to test some of our algos on XBU24H in a week or two, hope all market maker bots will still be here
[2015-07-16 05:11:07] BitMEX_Arthur : miratrader: try trading `XBTN15` as well
[2015-07-16 05:11:08] BitMEX_Arthur : a lot of action there
[2015-07-16 05:13:51] miratrader : Yes, I was looking at XBTN15 as well, will see.
[2015-07-16 05:15:25] chrisxbt : lol someone's bot, got a 305 fill
[2015-07-16 05:16:22] chrisxbt : also hopefully there's people doing arbitrage too
[2015-07-16 05:17:04] miratrader : $1.5 spread on XBTN15 :-(
[2015-07-16 05:18:13] laisee : Arthur: silly question, I know, but where does the mark price come from?
[2015-07-16 05:18:52] chrisxbt : I think that's the fair price
[2015-07-16 05:21:41] laisee : Ok. So BFX Spot(288.63) gives Mark Price of 291.65 on XBTN15.
[2015-07-16 05:23:35] j8 : the difference is the "fair basis"
[2015-07-16 05:24:26] j8 : which is set to 25% annually in this case
[2015-07-16 05:27:35] laisee : got it, thx.
[2015-07-16 05:28:25] chrisxbt : woah XBT has no insurance fee
[2015-07-16 05:29:35] j8 : for the uncapped contracts the mark price is the last traded price, though.
[2015-07-16 05:30:17] j8 : that 0.1% taker fee on XBT series does add up
[2015-07-16 05:33:31] j8 : that's like two days of insurance per trade
[2015-07-16 05:34:28] chrisxbt : yeah I know
[2015-07-16 05:34:48] j8 : i guess insurance is not necessary on capped contracts since nothing can go wrong for them.
[2015-07-16 05:34:49] chrisxbt : I thought there was no difference between maker taker