This is a mirror of the original BitMEX trollbox archive that used to be online here.
BitMEX disabled their archive after the DDOS attack so I have decided to make my mirror publicly available.

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[2015-07-10 06:18:41] goat : they bought all the ltc dirt cheap, and are pumping ltc while trading those ltc into btc on the way up, then selling some of those btc on exchange to supress the btc price so the ltc/btc ratio increases faster
[2015-07-10 06:18:49] goat : and they can get moar btc for their ltc
[2015-07-10 06:19:02] goat : its probably the pre pump so they can acquire as many btc as possible
[2015-07-10 06:19:11] goat : it was 200 ltc to 1 btc a few days ago, now its like 40 or something
[2015-07-10 06:19:16] goat : i did the math earlier
[2015-07-10 06:19:25] BitMEX_Arthur : but they are taking a lot of risk
[2015-07-10 06:19:32] BitMEX_Arthur : if this is indeed the play
[2015-07-10 06:19:51] goat : ehh, definitely a decent amount but i wouldn't say a lot
[2015-07-10 06:19:56] goat : they are clearly professionals
[2015-07-10 06:20:22] goat : you read my article about the first part of the pump
[2015-07-10 06:20:33] goat : these people clearly are very professional and know what they're doing
[2015-07-10 06:20:38] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah
[2015-07-10 06:20:45] BitMEX_Arthur : a friend of mine said the pumpers stopped at 7
[2015-07-10 06:20:46] goat : this was well planned months in advance
[2015-07-10 06:20:47] BitMEX_Arthur : now it's just fomo
[2015-07-10 06:20:55] goat : it could be, or the chinese group
[2015-07-10 06:20:55] BitMEX_Arthur : they sold out already
[2015-07-10 06:21:04] goat : did you see the post on bitcointalk?
[2015-07-10 06:21:08] BitMEX_Arthur : no
[2015-07-10 06:21:10] BitMEX_Arthur : link me pls
[2015-07-10 06:21:13] goat : yeah hold on
[2015-07-10 06:21:23] goat : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1115157.0
[2015-07-10 06:23:22] BitMEX_Arthur : holy shit
[2015-07-10 06:23:28] BitMEX_Arthur : actually that makes a lot of sense
[2015-07-10 06:23:37] BitMEX_Arthur : there was a conference in shanghai last month supposedly about bitcoin
[2015-07-10 06:23:41] goat : really
[2015-07-10 06:23:43] goat : interesting
[2015-07-10 06:23:51] BitMEX_Arthur : it was just a promo for a pyramid ponzi scheme
[2015-07-10 06:23:54] BitMEX_Arthur : pumping some coin
[2015-07-10 06:23:57] goat : it seems like those late night tv commercials lol
[2015-07-10 06:23:59] BitMEX_Arthur : all housewives
[2015-07-10 06:24:04] BitMEX_Arthur : yep
[2015-07-10 06:24:10] goat : wow
[2015-07-10 06:24:14] goat : those scammy chinese
[2015-07-10 06:24:23] BitMEX_Arthur : hey man if it makes us all richer and gets more vol back
[2015-07-10 06:24:24] BitMEX_Arthur : let's go
[2015-07-10 06:24:28] goat : hahaha agreed
[2015-07-10 06:24:29] BitMEX_Arthur : humans will be humans
[2015-07-10 06:24:36] goat : my cold storage is safe from them lol
[2015-07-10 06:24:52] goat : here check this out too hold on
[2015-07-10 06:25:11] goat : https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=nl&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2F8btc.com%2Fthread-20406-1-1.html&sandbox=1
[2015-07-10 06:25:21] goat : oops here
[2015-07-10 06:25:22] goat : http://8btc.com/thread-20406-4-1.html
[2015-07-10 06:25:27] goat : you can translate it yourself if you need to
[2015-07-10 06:25:37] goat : i bought some dash today in case they pump that next
[2015-07-10 06:26:38] BitMEX_Arthur : they must be bag holders
[2015-07-10 06:26:42] BitMEX_Arthur : why pick litecoin
[2015-07-10 06:26:47] BitMEX_Arthur : they would make way more money in a more illiquid coin
[2015-07-10 06:27:01] goat : yeah but its not on the big exchanges
[2015-07-10 06:27:17] goat : other alts arent i mean
[2015-07-10 06:27:20] goat : ltc is
[2015-07-10 06:27:24] BitMEX_Arthur : tru
[2015-07-10 06:27:26] BitMEX_Arthur : it's on okc and btcchina
[2015-07-10 06:27:34] BitMEX_Arthur : and a chinese guy created it
[2015-07-10 06:27:36] goat : huobi
[2015-07-10 06:27:38] goat : bfx
[2015-07-10 06:27:43] goat : btce
[2015-07-10 06:28:24] BitMEX_Arthur : "This is crazy. Something like 22% of all mined LTC has moved through that address. I'm beginning to think this is for real. Has anyone uncovered any more info on the people behind this? I wonder where the other 7 million LTC have gone. There are batches of 500 --- something like 8000 tx in the past month or so -- still being sent. Hundreds today. Crazy....."
[2015-07-10 06:28:30] goat : yeah i saw that earlier
[2015-07-10 06:28:37] goat : redic
[2015-07-10 06:29:04] BitMEX_Arthur : the amounts on there are staggering
[2015-07-10 06:29:34] goat : and fontas was saying he wanted 900k ltc lol... peanuts compared to this
[2015-07-10 06:30:12] BitMEX_Arthur : so obvi they pay out people and cash out LTC/BTC then hit the bid for CNY in BTC
[2015-07-10 06:30:15] BitMEX_Arthur : makes complete sense
[2015-07-10 06:30:22] BitMEX_Arthur : and is why Bitcoin hasn't been following LTC
[2015-07-10 06:30:30] goat : yeah
[2015-07-10 06:30:37] goat : there is obvious btc price supression
[2015-07-10 06:30:41] goat : there have been hidden asks on bfx all day
[2015-07-10 06:30:43] goat : big ones
[2015-07-10 06:31:44] goat : and im convinced this all ties into the blockchain spam thing somehow
[2015-07-10 06:31:45] goat : but im not sure yet
[2015-07-10 06:33:14] goat : ok i have to get some work done and get to bed, too much time playing with crypto this week so far lol
[2015-07-10 06:33:22] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-07-10 06:33:23] goat : talk to you tomorrow
[2015-07-10 06:33:34] BitMEX_Arthur : i'm definitely going to write about this
[2015-07-10 08:12:45] BitMEX_Arthur : https://blog.bitmex.com/chinese-promoter-pumping-litecoin-via-ponzi-scheme/
[2015-07-10 09:18:43] goat : holy fuck dude
[2015-07-10 09:18:52] goat : i top ticked that and dumped my entire ltc trading stash
[2015-07-10 09:19:05] goat : into btc
[2015-07-10 09:19:06] BitMEX_Arthur : holy shit
[2015-07-10 09:19:13] BitMEX_Arthur : china spot is 317
[2015-07-10 09:19:16] goat : yeah
[2015-07-10 09:19:39] goat : remember when i told you we would wake up one day and the price would be bonkers lol
[2015-07-10 09:19:42] goat : this is partway there
[2015-07-10 09:19:55] BitMEX_Arthur : did you read my article
[2015-07-10 09:20:00] goat : yeah it was good :D
[2015-07-10 09:20:06] goat : timing was fucking perfect
[2015-07-10 09:20:07] goat : lol
[2015-07-10 09:20:09] goat : literally
[2015-07-10 09:20:17] goat : couldnt have timed it better to the minute
[2015-07-10 09:59:06] uiop : some folks got banga
[2015-07-10 09:59:15] BitMEX_Arthur : yep
[2015-07-10 10:33:22] chromaticcr : seriously
[2015-07-10 10:33:34] BitMEX_Arthur : this has been crazy
[2015-07-10 10:33:45] chromaticcr : both ltc/btc
[2015-07-10 10:33:59] chromaticcr : wtf are those chinese thinking
[2015-07-10 10:34:13] BitMEX_Arthur : did you see our article about
[2015-07-10 10:36:43] chromaticcr : not yet
[2015-07-10 10:37:44] chromaticcr : ponzi litecoin one?
[2015-07-10 10:37:44] BitMEX_Arthur : https://blog.bitmex.com/chinese-promoter-pumping-litecoin-via-ponzi-scheme/
[2015-07-10 10:37:47] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah
[2015-07-10 10:38:10] chromaticcr : got some chinese media source that some company or whatever are pitching LTC to dama
[2015-07-10 10:38:14] chromaticcr : Chinese Dama
[2015-07-10 10:38:29] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah i have it in that articl
[2015-07-10 10:38:35] BitMEX_Arthur : a classic ponzi in ltc
[2015-07-10 10:39:48] chromaticcr : and obviously okcoin is behind their back
[2015-07-10 12:19:40] BitMEX_Sam : BTW if any of you are at Inside Bitcoins Chicago send me an email at sam@bitmex.com
[2015-07-10 12:37:15] joequant : OMG
[2015-07-10 12:37:25] joequant : I thought I was going to be able to relax this weekend.
[2015-07-10 12:37:35] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-07-10 12:37:42] BitMEX_Arthur : LTC perfect pump and dump
[2015-07-10 12:40:37] joequant : good news/bad news. good news is that my hedges worked and I was able to sleep through the pump-dump with basically zero p/l
[2015-07-10 12:40:45] joequant : that's also the bad news :-(
[2015-07-10 12:40:50] BitMEX_Arthur : you sold puts on hsi
[2015-07-10 12:40:55] BitMEX_Arthur : u must have made a killing
[2015-07-10 12:41:54] joequant : no. I was overexposed last week.
[2015-07-10 12:42:19] BitMEX_Arthur : skew must be massive
[2015-07-10 12:42:36] BitMEX_Arthur : i guess problem is getting borrow
[2015-07-10 12:42:55] joequant : the trouble is that most of the traders just look at the bid-ask spread.
[2015-07-10 12:43:28] joequant : most have some idea of what implied vol is. most people don't know care what smile and skew are.
[2015-07-10 12:43:54] joequant : And I'm going to be spending the next two months trying to interface to the crap software that the brokers provide.
[2015-07-10 12:47:38] chromaticcr : arb alert: still 13$ spread on 796, and 13 hours left, good luck
[2015-07-10 12:49:32] BitMEX_Arthur : oh shit
[2015-07-10 12:49:57] chromaticcr : :)
[2015-07-10 12:56:53] joequant : Are the exchange default swaps ready :-)
[2015-07-10 12:56:56] joequant : ?
[2015-07-10 12:57:10] BitMEX_Arthur : we have been working on 20x
[2015-07-10 12:57:21] BitMEX_Arthur : once that is done and a few other things we will get around to it
[2015-07-10 13:00:45] joequant : So you won't have a 796 default swap ready in the next 13 hours, I assume :-) :-)
[2015-07-10 13:00:56] BitMEX_Arthur : nope
[2015-07-10 13:01:04] joequant : dang :-)
[2015-07-10 13:06:53] chromaticcr : we got ~300BTC in the 796 pool
[2015-07-10 13:07:21] chromaticcr : make good use of that XDD
[2015-07-10 18:58:36] cengel : xbuu15 has bids that are not in descending order
[2015-07-10 18:58:55] cengel : also after refresh
[2015-07-10 18:59:05] cengel : woop nm now its fine
[2015-07-11 01:07:17] BitMEX_Arthur : Well that was fun, market seems to be quiet now
[2015-07-11 02:26:50] j8 : BitMEX_Arthur: just glad i wasn't hedged on okcoin
[2015-07-11 02:28:06] BitMEX_Sam : Did they have trouble today? Was offline most of the day
[2015-07-11 02:28:59] j8 : okcoin.cn has been pretty unreachable
[2015-07-11 02:29:47] j8 : i think i heard people weren't able to close on .com futures
[2015-07-11 02:30:54] j8 : but mainly, mad wicks
[2015-07-11 02:31:46] BitMEX_Sam : Ah. Yeah movement today was really something
[2015-07-11 02:34:07] j8 : it was, and i sure picked the wrong night to short `BVOL`
[2015-07-11 02:34:28] j8 : could have been much worse though.
[2015-07-11 04:22:45] BitMEX_Arthur : What the fuck is happening
[2015-07-11 05:33:10] gmikeska07 : Lol gently caress
[2015-07-11 05:33:31] gmikeska07 : Fuck <--- test
[2015-07-11 06:09:07] uiop : https://news.huobi.com/public/picture/edit/1507/130129.jpg'
[2015-07-11 12:55:43] Blargwaffle : 清昌创叮咚
[2015-07-11 18:51:50] j8 : so i just did a rough calculation: if `BVOL24H` was measured on huobi it would have settled around 16 the day before last (instead of 5.21 on bitfinex)
[2015-07-11 18:52:30] joequant : I think what happened is that all of the punters that were playing the stock market have come back to bitcoin.
[2015-07-11 18:58:22] j8 : this combined with the big ltc selloff. and it all started right after okc weekly futures settlement
[2015-07-11 19:34:35] goat : i came on vacation with an extra computer screen bc of this shit and have to pay 19.99 per day for broadband in my room
[2015-07-11 19:34:39] goat : thanks bitcoin
[2015-07-11 20:04:48] j8 : i spent $25 on mobile data this week thanks to bitcoin, now i don't feel so bad.
[2015-07-11 22:51:41] goat : BitMEX_Arthur: great job with that article man, you got a shoutout in bitcoin magazine
[2015-07-11 22:52:31] goat : i wish i had the time to write it, but whatever... if anyone else in the community is going to get credit im happy its you
[2015-07-12 02:48:07] chrisxbt : it's the price to pay for trading, but what's your plan cost, I was able to get pay as you go , $30 for a GB
[2015-07-12 03:38:44] j8 : $5 per 250 MB over the plan limit of 1 GB. highway robbery if you ask me
[2015-07-12 04:40:56] chrisxbt : lol , well pay as you go is a lot cheaper for me
[2015-07-12 10:28:12] laisee : odds on grexit looking better by the hour
[2015-07-12 11:06:38] BitMEX_Arthur : how is the euro meeting going today
[2015-07-12 11:20:39] joequant : bad
[2015-07-12 11:21:16] joequant : the cool thing is that there is thing massive game of chicken.
[2015-07-12 11:21:29] joequant : no one has plans for an orderly exit.
[2015-07-12 11:21:45] joequant : intentionally.
[2015-07-12 11:23:54] joequant : all the new buying seems europe drive and not china driven.
[2015-07-12 11:26:03] laisee : Seems like Germany is planning for Grexit, cheaper to pay a few billion in aid each year than give another 80+ Billion for potential reforms. Bitcoin up by end of day ...
[2015-07-12 11:32:03] joequant : I'm closing all my hedges and just relying on stop loss orders.
[2015-07-12 11:32:34] joequant : Taking a loss, because tomorrow is going to be a wild ride.
[2015-07-12 11:32:36] laisee : yolo
[2015-07-12 11:33:54] joequant : The markets are almost to the point that I can't do any real hedging anyway, and if Greece exists, the smartest thing is to just go massively long.
[2015-07-12 11:34:02] joequant : exits
[2015-07-12 11:34:44] joequant : I can easily see XBT going to 400 or 500 by the end of the week if Greece leaves without a plan.
[2015-07-12 11:36:51] laisee : it could be a wild week or so. until ECB/ECM/EC(??) buys a greek bank and starts handling out euro notes to quel the riots ... one scenario . .
[2015-07-12 11:41:59] joequant : I'm just hoping that the Chinese markets don't crash again last week.
[2015-07-12 11:42:07] joequant : like last week.
[2015-07-12 11:46:50] joequant : it occurs to me that looking for pennies on the beach is not a good strategy if a tsnaumi is coming.
[2015-07-12 12:00:06] laisee : or, like picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer?
[2015-07-12 12:03:42] joequant : No. I'm used to picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer.
[2015-07-12 12:04:10] joequant : Normally I just keep my eye out for the bulldozer and if no one is in the driver seat, I feel safe.
[2015-07-12 12:04:35] joequant : In this situation, the hurricane might lift up the bulldozer and smash me.
[2015-07-12 12:04:59] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-07-12 12:05:14] joequant : Under normal situations there are three or four things that might move bitcoin.
[2015-07-12 12:05:35] joequant : When Greece, we are in unknown territiory.
[2015-07-12 12:05:47] joequant : And it could go in either direction.
[2015-07-12 12:05:48] BitMEX_Arthur : seems like germany wants them gone
[2015-07-12 12:06:58] BitMEX_Arthur : bitvc.com down
[2015-07-12 12:07:10] joequant : Yup, but I can imagine scenarios in which the price of bitcoin drops down to $200 in an hour.
[2015-07-12 12:07:58] joequant : In any event I want to simplify my portfolio so that I can move quickly if something weird happens.
[2015-07-12 12:09:46] joequant : That's another issue. I want to limit my exposure in case an exchange goes down either for an hour or permanently.
[2015-07-12 12:09:58] joequant : This would be a wonderful time for someone to DDOS an exchange.
[2015-07-12 12:26:12] laisee : I thought there was some DDOS going on during the LTC PnD
[2015-07-12 13:16:25] joequant : Yup, and now is a good time to mess up the markets.
[2015-07-12 13:52:47] chrisxbt : yeah I'm quite diversified, but it's not simple
[2015-07-12 13:53:28] chrisxbt : got some btc on okcoin futures, bitmex for some XBT futures, coinut get some binary options or vanilla
[2015-07-12 13:56:28] j8 : how is coinut?
[2015-07-12 13:59:25] chrisxbt : crap you can't cancel partial fills?
[2015-07-12 13:59:30] chrisxbt : Coinut is awesome!
[2015-07-12 14:01:03] j8 : sure you can
[2015-07-12 14:01:19] chrisxbt : ah scroll ri
[2015-07-12 14:01:45] joequant : I'm trying to "de-diversify" myself. Too many moving parts.
[2015-07-12 14:02:19] chrisxbt : 3 exchanges, all different products
[2015-07-12 14:02:38] chrisxbt : I'm fine with it. Different opportunities
[2015-07-12 14:06:31] chrisxbt : Oh so about coinut, used to trade the 30 minute binaries but now I mainly go into weekly, biweekly, daily positions. For options, I find premium is really high so I usually sell options. 12% limited upside but it's good.
[2015-07-12 14:15:53] chrisxbt : Also right now it's actually cheaper to long XBT quanto then weekly futures on okcoin
[2015-07-12 14:17:28] j8 : yeah i don't quite understand why the XBU series runs so much lower than okcoin too.
[2015-07-12 14:19:23] chrisxbt : oh it's only 2.5x
[2015-07-12 14:19:28] chrisxbt : XBU is basically spot
[2015-07-12 14:22:46] chrisxbt : woah quarterlies is 305 XBU
[2015-07-12 14:23:03] j8 : yeah arb that shiz
[2015-07-12 14:23:54] chrisxbt : hah, nice try, I rather stick with my 10x
[2015-07-12 14:24:11] j8 : i don't really see how more leverage means higher premium, what am i missing
[2015-07-12 14:25:06] chrisxbt : actually there's a premium on XBT quanto because you make more money if it goes up
[2015-07-12 14:25:17] j8 : yes
[2015-07-12 14:27:38] chrisxbt : also it's really funny I made a lot more last run up to 300
[2015-07-12 14:28:12] chrisxbt : got rekt on the way down, and this time I've been too scared to get into positions
[2015-07-12 14:28:46] j8 : but XBU vs okcoin contracts. almost 9% difference on quarterlies. the index calculation, leverage and liquidity are all thats different
[2015-07-12 14:29:25] j8 : yeah i took some big losses coming down from 300 last time too.
[2015-07-12 14:30:47] chrisxbt : also I'm on trader fee schedule
[2015-07-12 14:30:56] chrisxbt : can't trade quarterlies XBU, no liquidity
[2015-07-12 14:31:13] joequant : There are a few gotchas.
[2015-07-12 14:31:19] chrisxbt : Actually I made a lot of money going down, big from 300
[2015-07-12 14:31:27] joequant : The Chinese futures do weird things with their index prices.
[2015-07-12 14:31:45] chrisxbt : big short
[2015-07-12 14:31:50] joequant : Also the difference between the XBT and XBU is a function of the volatility.
[2015-07-12 14:32:34] joequant : https://bitquant.wordpress.com/2015/04/14/magic-formula-for-xbt-and-xbu-futures/
[2015-07-12 14:32:56] chrisxbt : but then I got too high, I fomo closed short at 270 on a retrace, and then I actually longed big around 260 for nasdaq pump. And that was a total failure.
[2015-07-12 14:32:57] joequant : Because the XBT are a quadratic function, there is a term for the volatility.
[2015-07-12 14:33:23] joequant : I'm just going long for everything.
[2015-07-12 14:33:49] joequant : The futures/exchange arb is huge but it's just too difficult to hedge.
[2015-07-12 14:34:27] joequant : I just keep running out of margin, and I gave up a few hours ago.
[2015-07-12 14:35:20] j8 : yeah it's just not the time for hedging.
[2015-07-12 14:36:03] joequant : nice arb on XBUZ15.
[2015-07-12 14:36:35] laisee : yeah, climb aboard the rocket or stay at home. No easy way to do both.
[2015-07-12 14:37:16] chrisxbt : well you can do 3x okcoin too
[2015-07-12 14:37:36] chrisxbt : $15 premium is decent interest
[2015-07-12 14:37:38] laisee : only 3x?
[2015-07-12 14:37:56] chrisxbt : you can use less if you're hedgin
[2015-07-12 14:38:05] chrisxbt : up to 20x of course
[2015-07-12 14:38:29] laisee : to match the 2 markets, I guess
[2015-07-12 14:39:20] j8 : joequant: how's that magic formula working out in practice?
[2015-07-12 14:39:44] joequant : I haven't done a detail analysis.
[2015-07-12 14:40:01] joequant : But the spread between XBT and XBU increases when you have high volatility.
[2015-07-12 14:40:12] joequant : So the arb between them is a vol play.
[2015-07-12 14:41:02] chrisxbt : yeah I was really lucky to get $303 on XBT futures
[2015-07-12 14:49:29] joequant : It looks like the rise is european driven and not china driven. A assume that lots of Greeks want to get their money out.
[2015-07-12 14:51:01] chrisxbt : that greek thing is just a narrative spun
[2015-07-12 14:51:08] chrisxbt : the greek bitcoin thing
[2015-07-12 14:55:02] joequant : I don't think that bitcoin is usable for most Greeks, but a small fraction that use it can drive up prices.
[2015-07-12 14:56:34] j8 : its a bit late for greek people to be buying, but a lot of other countries are on the brink, and with all the media about bitcoin as a safe haven, and no gold rally...
[2015-07-12 15:00:00] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah greeks cannot buy bitcoin
[2015-07-12 15:00:04] BitMEX_Arthur : however the rest of europe can wake up
[2015-07-12 15:00:17] BitMEX_Arthur : before germany crushes them as well
[2015-07-12 15:01:52] joequant : Anyone know why there isn't a gold rally?
[2015-07-12 15:01:58] joequant : I'm a bit surprised.
[2015-07-12 15:02:59] j8 : i think a lot of people are surprised, which is why the media has latched on to the bitcoin safe haven thing.
[2015-07-12 15:03:53] j8 : i don't think the gold money went to bitcoin, but that seems to be the narrative
[2015-07-12 15:13:31] BitMEX_Arthur : d-day for grexit is tomorrow
[2015-07-12 15:13:58] BitMEX_Arthur : they have 24hrs to accept the new frame work or they are finshed
[2015-07-12 15:16:05] goat : this hotel just kicked me out of the room lol
[2015-07-12 15:16:07] goat : bc i was trading
[2015-07-12 15:16:10] goat : and didnt want to leave
[2015-07-12 15:16:20] BitMEX_Arthur : what do you mean
[2015-07-12 15:16:24] chrisxbt : it's just a proposal to extend loans right?
[2015-07-12 15:16:35] goat : lol i just didnt leave when they told me to
[2015-07-12 15:16:38] chrisxbt : more loans
[2015-07-12 15:16:44] goat : and got extended check out and still didnt leave
[2015-07-12 15:16:47] BitMEX_Arthur : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-12/eurogroup-fails-reach-deal-gives-greece-24-hours-accept-draconian-terms
[2015-07-12 15:17:16] chrisxbt : there was this good op-ed on the guardian
[2015-07-12 15:18:13] chrisxbt : It's really hard to leave a monetary union, Greece is going to have a hard time, lots of barter
[2015-07-12 15:18:52] chrisxbt : or they could still use euros?
[2015-07-12 15:19:03] BitMEX_Arthur : well they could use euro but couldn't print them
[2015-07-12 15:19:10] BitMEX_Arthur : they have to issue a new currency and devalue
[2015-07-12 15:19:40] BitMEX_Arthur : or a first step would be that the government pays all bills in drachma and taxes are due in drachma
[2015-07-12 15:20:18] BitMEX_Arthur : nationalise the banks, take the deposits and use as "hard" currency for imports
[2015-07-12 15:23:56] laisee : and print some IOU's for govt wages, pensions etc until they can import proper printing presses for Drachmas ...
[2015-07-12 15:24:23] joequant : It would be total hell, but that's why the referendum was important.
[2015-07-12 15:25:19] laisee : hmmm. politically everyone is arranging cover for the worst case.
[2015-07-12 15:25:52] BitMEX_Arthur : Germany clearly wants them out
[2015-07-12 15:27:38] laisee : agreed. its becoming quite clear they mean to show the greeks and anyone else, how bad it is not to pay your debts.
[2015-07-12 15:28:05] joequant : And funnily the US wants them in. I think the US is worried that Russia will bail out the Greeks.
[2015-07-12 15:29:06] joequant : The good news is that no one in Asia seems to care. I'm hoping that this means the markets won't tank tomorrow.
[2015-07-12 15:29:50] joequant : I'm trying to relax and not think about 9:00 AM HK time.
[2015-07-12 15:30:11] BitMEX_Arthur : what's your asian book look like
[2015-07-12 15:30:18] BitMEX_Arthur : you still short vol via short puts
[2015-07-12 15:30:32] laisee : its been coming for so long, probably zero impact on markets
[2015-07-12 15:31:40] joequant : Well, I have some short put positions that I'm trying to get out of.
[2015-07-12 15:31:48] joequant : But zero liquidity.
[2015-07-12 15:31:54] BitMEX_Arthur : buy why is that a problem, just buy spot
[2015-07-12 15:32:00] BitMEX_Arthur : earn the premium
[2015-07-12 15:32:20] joequant : The trouble is that it seems to be impossible to short stock.
[2015-07-12 15:32:44] joequant : I'm not the HK option trader in the firm. The other partner (my wife) is.
[2015-07-12 15:32:47] BitMEX_Arthur : oh yeah short puts
[2015-07-12 15:32:55] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah borrow must be impossible
[2015-07-12 15:33:04] joequant : Uh huh.
[2015-07-12 15:33:10] joequant : Got trapped.
[2015-07-12 15:33:17] BitMEX_Arthur : well are these big caps
[2015-07-12 15:33:19] BitMEX_Arthur : or small caps
[2015-07-12 15:33:32] joequant : It's a midcap software firm. Great company.
[2015-07-12 15:33:44] joequant : But their options have very little liquidity in the best of times.
[2015-07-12 15:33:56] joequant : That's how we ended up with a large exposure.
[2015-07-12 15:34:17] BitMEX_Arthur : i mean the vol skew must be massive
[2015-07-12 15:34:25] BitMEX_Arthur : can u buy the calls or just too expensive
[2015-07-12 15:34:33] joequant : No liquidity.
[2015-07-12 15:34:42] joequant : Once this is over, I'd like to start market making.
[2015-07-12 15:34:52] joequant : But that will take a few weeks of study.
[2015-07-12 15:35:40] joequant : But we've reduced our exposure so that we can survive unless things go really, really bad.
[2015-07-12 15:36:11] joequant : But it's really scary to have your portfolio lose 50% of value in 30 minutes which was what happened last week.
[2015-07-12 15:37:07] joequant : There's an off chance that this might happen again, but are positions are such that we can withstand a 50% crash.
[2015-07-12 15:37:23] joequant : Financial bungee jumping.
[2015-07-12 15:41:07] j8 : sounds exciting.
[2015-07-12 15:41:19] joequant : Too exciting.
[2015-07-12 15:41:58] joequant : I'm hoping that I've measured the bungee cords correctly, but I'd prefer not to get pushed off the cliff.
[2015-07-12 15:45:20] j8 : best of luck.
[2015-07-12 15:47:25] j8 : some interesting info on the okcoin blog regarding the ddos a couple days ago
[2015-07-12 15:49:05] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah they are paying out 2k XBT
[2015-07-12 16:02:54] jerryd : didn't china make it illegal to short stocks?
[2015-07-12 16:09:54] BitMEX_Arthur : you could never borrow stock to short it in china
[2015-07-12 16:10:06] BitMEX_Arthur : they have stopped certain people and institutions from long selling holdings
[2015-07-12 16:10:26] BitMEX_Arthur : and if they think you are manipulating the market they will come after you criminally
[2015-07-12 16:26:53] joequant : Short selling in PRC has always been highly restricted.
[2015-07-12 20:26:22] cengel : arthur, how can non-chinese trade their stocks?
[2015-07-12 23:36:28] BitMEX_Arthur : cengel: you can't really own a shares if you aren't chinese
[2015-07-12 23:44:11] chrisxbt : Can you have shares of a holding company?
[2015-07-12 23:44:41] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah that's what alibaba is but it's questionable if you actually own anything
[2015-07-12 23:44:56] BitMEX_Arthur : to own A shares is pretty much impossible unless you go via a few ETFs
[2015-07-13 02:30:40] joequant : The problem isn't the shares.
[2015-07-13 02:30:58] joequant : The problem is getting access to RMB to trade the shares.
[2015-07-13 02:31:19] joequant : I don't have a problem since I'm in Hong Kong.
[2015-07-13 02:31:52] joequant : Also Huobi has this thing where you can trade Chinese shares with bitcoin, although I haven't looked at it closely.
[2015-07-13 02:32:29] joequant : You can also get B shares and H shares and N shares.
[2015-07-13 02:33:05] joequant : Also I think it might be possible to trade A shares though HK. Interactive brokers seems to have something.
[2015-07-13 02:33:20] BitMEX_Arthur : I mean you have stock connect
[2015-07-13 02:33:24] BitMEX_Arthur : if you have HKD you can trade A shares
[2015-07-13 02:33:43] joequant : Yeah and it's easy to get HKD.
[2015-07-13 02:36:10] joequant : The Chinese government is trying to open up the market, but opening up the market has side effects.
[2015-07-13 02:36:32] joequant : One thing that I've found is that most small HK investors know what they are doing. Most small Mainland investors don't.
[2015-07-13 03:10:59] Blargwaffle : Most HKers don't shit in public, too.
[2015-07-13 04:14:18] chrisxbt : Bitmex, your fair basis for XBT could probably be adjusted a bit.
[2015-07-13 05:14:32] BitMEX_Arthur : chrisxbt: will take a look
[2015-07-13 05:15:20] chromaticcr : just a notice to everyone, okcoin is taking 1kBTC from the socialize loss fund to compensate people who lose money in the downtime on okcoin.cn
[2015-07-13 05:15:37] chromaticcr : such a dick move
[2015-07-13 05:15:59] BitMEX_Arthur : oh so that's what they did
[2015-07-13 05:16:09] BitMEX_Arthur : i thought they took 1k of retained earnings
[2015-07-13 05:16:21] chromaticcr : 1k from their pocket, 1k from the fund
[2015-07-13 05:17:35] chromaticcr : i bet they will just take it from the user's wallet next time, srsly
[2015-07-13 07:20:22] chrisxbt : srsly, what are you biatching about?
[2015-07-13 07:21:20] chrisxbt : they're compensating losers, and you're turning it into something negative
[2015-07-13 08:03:50] laisee : yeah, same as Germany and Greece ... ;-)
[2015-07-13 08:04:17] BitMEX_Arthur : lol this deal is dog shit
[2015-07-13 08:04:31] BitMEX_Arthur : if they pass this in parliament, people will be in the streets
[2015-07-13 08:05:55] chromaticcr : okcoin is dead again
[2015-07-13 08:07:35] laisee : maybe its a good deal if everyone is equally pissed off
[2015-07-13 08:07:51] chromaticcr : except StarXu
[2015-07-13 08:09:02] laisee : was referring to EURO crap-fest, but if okcoin is unhappy then it s a good start to the week ...
[2015-07-13 08:17:54] joequant : i picked the wrong time to submit my doc to immigration.
[2015-07-13 08:18:18] joequant : lost a few hundred usd, but I'll chalk it up to immigration processing fees.
[2015-07-13 08:18:25] joequant : :-)
[2015-07-13 08:18:33] joequant : was not in front of a terminal when this happened.
[2015-07-13 08:45:46] jerryd : wow. Waiting for the riots in the streets.
[2015-07-13 08:56:34] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah this deal is terrible
[2015-07-13 08:57:10] BitMEX_Arthur : parliament will pass it, but there will need to be another government formed, and there is no way the people will vote in a new party that agrees to these terms
[2015-07-13 08:57:18] BitMEX_Arthur : they bought themselves a few weeks at most
[2015-07-13 15:55:28] goat : http://shitco.in/2015/07/13/the-coming-greek-bail-ins-bitcoin-users-not-affected/
[2015-07-13 19:31:23] Swedishnut : Bought Politicians Purchase Headlines to Buy Time To Hope They Can Control. The People Will Not Be Led to Slaughter and Slavery.
[2015-07-13 19:32:12] Swedishnut : My Gut feeling. Revolt and Revolution are nigh in Greece and what a fitting place to Make current History
[2015-07-14 04:17:14] laisee : hmmm, I would always be wary of media-led impressions. probably if the EURO cash arrives in Greece and banks re-open the people will not reviolt.
[2015-07-14 04:20:29] BitMEX_Arthur : The banks will not be allowed to reopen
[2015-07-14 04:20:32] BitMEX_Arthur : even if ecb gives more support
[2015-07-14 04:20:36] BitMEX_Arthur : they would be emptied in hours
[2015-07-14 05:44:56] laisee : possibly they can increase daily ATM amounts to 100/150 Euros.
[2015-07-14 05:48:57] goat : http://shitco.in/2015/07/14/the-ltc-pump-dump-and-a-post-mortem-for-both-bulls-and-bears/
[2015-07-14 06:44:23] uiop : https://i.imgur.com/mUPwxxI.png
[2015-07-14 06:44:43] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-07-14 06:44:52] BitMEX_Arthur : Cameron in the UK says they won't contribute to the bailout
[2015-07-14 06:44:56] BitMEX_Arthur : this deal looks in trouble
[2015-07-14 06:47:51] uiop : one blurb in news ticker says tsipras "to step down" if doesnt the deal doesnt get greek parliament support
[2015-07-14 06:51:01] uiop : "resign"
[2015-07-14 08:04:08] chrisxbt : do you double count open interest?
[2015-07-14 08:26:18] BitMEX_Arthur : No
[2015-07-14 08:31:54] chrisxbt : sorry I put a negative connatation to double counting, what does open interest mean?
[2015-07-14 08:35:15] BitMEX_Arthur : The number of contracts outstanding
[2015-07-14 08:35:44] BitMEX_Arthur : If you and I trade 1 contract the open interest is 1
[2015-07-14 08:45:31] uiop : chrisxbt: open/open=+1, open/close=close/open=+0, close/close=-1
[2015-07-14 08:45:43] uiop : chrisxbt: <one party>/<the other>
[2015-07-14 09:27:01] chrisxbt : gotcha
[2015-07-14 09:54:11] uiop : http://i.imgur.com/vLhTtSL.png
[2015-07-14 12:10:46] BitMEX_Sam : uiop: Love that litecoin picture above.
[2015-07-14 12:34:04] goat : yeah, a lot of people got totally rekt
[2015-07-14 12:34:42] goat : i feel kinda bad for them, but they have to learn ig uess
[2015-07-14 12:35:31] goat : it sucks that the chinese ponzi thing was going on at the same time as the pump, i think that if people didnt have negative sentiment bc of the ponzi the market wouldnt have crashed so hard
[2015-07-14 12:36:08] Volnamege : здарова народ!!!
[2015-07-14 12:36:20] Volnamege : алло
[2015-07-14 12:37:02] Volnamege : как тут заработать бабло?
[2015-07-14 15:08:54] BitMEX_Sam : Sorry, we don't have any Russian employees, perhaps some of the users could help
[2015-07-14 15:34:50] Blargwaffle : 清昌创叮咚
[2015-07-14 15:35:07] Blargwaffle : Of course it'd be more convincing if my username was also Hanzi.
[2015-07-14 15:35:23] BitMEX_Arthur : lol
[2015-07-14 17:49:02] gmikeska07 : Heya! I have a deposit that is marked as "Completed" in the wallet history, but it isn't yet reflected in my total balance... Any ideas?
[2015-07-14 17:49:16] gmikeska07 : oh nvm it just posted... ;-)
[2015-07-14 18:05:57] BitMEX_Sam : :)
[2015-07-15 03:41:22] horlicks_ : I'm wondering if anyone's written an 'auto-hedger' type app that looks at their wallet on the blockchain and executes hedging trades when necessary. Has this been done?
[2015-07-15 03:41:42] BitMEX_Arthur : No it hasn't
[2015-07-15 03:42:00] BitMEX_Arthur : We want to work with wallet provides to come up with that kind of product in the near future
[2015-07-15 03:43:04] horlicks_ : Great, that would be a killer product
[2015-07-15 03:43:43] BitMEX_Arthur : horlicks_: how did you hear about BitMEX?
[2015-07-15 03:45:30] horlicks_ : A friend here said he watched a presentation you gave (iirc)
[2015-07-15 03:47:27] horlicks_ : We were discussing ways to protect against volatility in a bitcoin meetup and your company came up
[2015-07-15 03:51:33] BitMEX_Arthur : ah cool
[2015-07-15 06:23:10] atodorov07 : bitmex guys, just a heads up, my wallet qr is unscannable (I'm using blockchain)
[2015-07-15 06:25:43] atodorov07 : everything else is
[2015-07-15 06:25:44] atodorov07 : perfect
[2015-07-15 06:26:36] atodorov07 : I'm surprised lots of people are using shady, fake chinese gambling sites to trade , and not bitmex.
[2015-07-15 06:44:30] BitMEX_Arthur : We aim to change that in short order
[2015-07-15 09:17:25] chrisxbt : you'll be allowed to gamble at BitMEX soon too!
[2015-07-15 10:03:53] cosmossurferr : @BitMEX_Arthur Are you the owner of this platform?
[2015-07-15 10:33:24] BitMEX_Arthur : cosmossurferr: I am one of the co-founders and I am the CEO
[2015-07-15 11:31:20] goat : BitMEX_Arthur: i actually have been working on a sick business plan for fun regarding a product/service that we plan on using bitmex for the back end of (if we can move forward).
[2015-07-15 11:31:42] goat : im still speaking with my friends aka potential partners and trying to iron out some details/look into vc funding
[2015-07-15 11:31:53] BitMEX_Arthur : nice what would the product do
[2015-07-15 11:31:53] BitMEX_Arthur : ?
[2015-07-15 11:32:03] goat : who knows where it will go, i make up business plans all the time for fun lol
[2015-07-15 11:32:11] goat : i can email it to you, not saying it in public
[2015-07-15 11:32:18] goat : its actually a sick idea
[2015-07-15 11:32:18] BitMEX_Arthur : yeah shoot me a mail
[2015-07-15 11:43:19] goat : sent
[2015-07-15 11:44:18] goat : http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/cr15186.pdf?hootPostID=2cd94f17236d717acd9949448d794045
[2015-07-15 12:36:29] laisee : greek debt relief already means no debt or interest payments until 2023 http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/18/eurozone-greece-esm-idUSL5N0Z41VU20150618
[2015-07-15 13:27:35] jerryd : you know that article is a month old yeah?
[2015-07-15 13:28:05] jerryd : and the IMF report published yesterday pretty much refuts that completely.
[2015-07-15 13:28:58] jerryd : http://www.cbsnews.com/news/greece-debt-deeper-imf-alexis-tsipras-revolt-over-greek-bailout-austerity/
[2015-07-15 14:59:22] laisee : details on 2 previous debt bailouts haven't changed in last month, so article still stands. IMF report seems to ignore 2 prev bailouts and NPV of debt o/s ... all the way to 2053. I wish my bank would give me such good terms ...
[2015-07-15 15:47:20] cengel : NPV adjustments arent the same as a haircut to principal...
[2015-07-15 15:47:28] cengel : not exactly a "Bailout" per se
[2015-07-15 16:18:32] laisee : amounts to the same thing, imho. there were haircuts for private debt, btw. question is: why is the IMF making so noise on this?
[2015-07-15 22:26:09] chrisxbt : oh marketmakers back on XBU
[2015-07-15 22:26:23] chrisxbt : it was a bit empty this weekend
[2015-07-15 23:40:13] j8 : `XBTN15` was trading lower than `XBUN15` for a bit just now
[2015-07-15 23:40:55] BitMEX_Arthur : The bid is quite high on `XBUN15`
[2015-07-15 23:42:04] j8 : yeah there were like 500 contracts sitting there.
[2015-07-15 23:42:43] j8 : one stubborn marker maker
[2015-07-15 23:45:26] chrisxbt : got a nice scalp, 299 -> 291.5 on XBT
[2015-07-15 23:49:21] ksinvest : i guess i'm not the only one running a buggy "research" bot here. my market maker lost all its June profits this week...
[2015-07-16 00:05:20] chrisxbt : Are you hedging?
[2015-07-16 00:05:30] chrisxbt : ksinvest:
[2015-07-16 00:12:17] ksinvest : no, the market maker i'm currently running is unhedged
[2015-07-16 00:13:26] chrisxbt : so it's more of a trading marketmaker bot
[2015-07-16 00:15:21] ksinvest : a hedged market maker would be more an arbitration strategy for me rather than a market making strategy
[2015-07-16 00:17:49] chrisxbt : ahhhh
[2015-07-16 00:18:19] chrisxbt : that makes sense
[2015-07-16 00:20:41] chrisxbt : what contracts were you on?
[2015-07-16 00:20:58] ksinvest : my bot was just too slow sometimes and did not adapt the spread to volatility fast enough....
[2015-07-16 00:21:05] ksinvest : i'm only on XBU24H
[2015-07-16 00:22:30] ksinvest : currently 250 contracts on bid and ask, still making most of the trades on XBU24H
[2015-07-16 00:23:50] BitMEX_Sam : There's a lot more liquidity on the monthlies
[2015-07-16 00:24:27] chrisxbt : well market makers make money on the spread
[2015-07-16 00:34:18] ksinvest : i will maybe switch to monthly contracts when the bot is more improved but making money is not my primary interest here. this is more research project.
[2015-07-16 00:43:05] ksinvest : i'm actually interested in regulatory aspects of "cyborg finance" (high frequency trading). my research questions is: who are the "bad robots" and who are the "good" ones.
[2015-07-16 01:20:19] chrisxbt : wow it wicked up to
[2015-07-16 01:20:23] chrisxbt : 308.5
[2015-07-16 01:20:37] chrisxbt : XBTN15
[2015-07-16 01:21:14] chrisxbt : hmm it's hard to define good and bad
[2015-07-16 01:36:26] BitMEX_Arthur : good = makes money
[2015-07-16 01:36:28] BitMEX_Arthur : bad = loses money
[2015-07-16 01:38:14] chrisxbt : hah
[2015-07-16 01:38:47] chrisxbt : though I think he's trying to address some sort of philosophical question.
[2015-07-16 01:40:49] BitMEX_Arthur : probably
[2015-07-16 01:42:41] chrisxbt : It depends whethers he's a Kant
[2015-07-16 01:54:50] chrisxbt : sucks to be you whoever had the 308.5 order. Seems like you placed a big limit and that's when the marketmaker was resetting the positions.
[2015-07-16 02:17:06] goat : i got lucky with that contract
[2015-07-16 02:17:26] goat : market maker hadn't moved bids down yet and i dumped mine into them when btc dumped
[2015-07-16 02:17:36] goat : looks like i should be able to buy them back at around the same price or cheaper if we keep dropping
[2015-07-16 02:18:26] chrisxbt : yeah I filled 3k at 299, there was a big premium
[2015-07-16 02:19:10] goat : yep, dumped everythng i had at a really good premium during that dump except the daily
[2015-07-16 02:20:37] goat : should have bought back on the dip but i needed dinner
[2015-07-16 04:26:36] ksinvest : BitMEX_Arthur: both should make money. a good bot makes prices more efficient even in high volatile situations. a bad bot e.g. exits the market when volatility gets too high and creates artificial volatility/makes prices more inefficient.
[2015-07-16 04:37:19] chrisxbt : if they make more volatility, other people can make money off of it
[2015-07-16 04:44:49] ksinvest : yes but take the 2010 NYSE Flash Crash, it can take some time until these traders enter a market
[2015-07-16 04:46:14] chrisxbt : they lost money with that
[2015-07-16 04:47:13] chrisxbt : interesting
[2015-07-16 04:47:17] chrisxbt : reading up on that
[2015-07-16 04:47:45] ksinvest : i believe that spoofing by a single trader was not the main problem of the 2010 crash. bots that could be easily reverse engineered and used as "useful idiots" were/are a problem...
[2015-07-16 04:48:55] chrisxbt : oh but idiots don't make money
[2015-07-16 04:49:03] laisee : combination of that traders spoofing and bots, maybe
[2015-07-16 04:49:16] chrisxbt : it's sort of like placing orders in front of a bot to get a better fill when they out bid you
[2015-07-16 04:49:45] laisee : if you watch a market closely you can see patterns generated by m/maker bots
[2015-07-16 04:50:47] laisee : esp if they follow a cancel/refill at higher/lower price level pattern as the market jumps.
[2015-07-16 04:51:07] ksinvest : useful-idiot-bots that are manipulated into exiting a market will not make money but they will also not lose any money in this situation (which is even more important to the owners of these bots)
[2015-07-16 04:52:23] chrisxbt : why won't they lose money from exiting a bad situation?
[2015-07-16 04:53:28] chrisxbt : also they found out the problem. Someone was making a big sell order. All he did was sell 9% of previous volume. And it was all market sells
[2015-07-16 04:53:28] laisee : as long as they can dump their position b4 other bots, Ok
[2015-07-16 04:53:39] chrisxbt : The price crashed because someone was willing to keep on market selling
[2015-07-16 04:54:05] laisee : bot selling panic
[2015-07-16 04:54:31] chrisxbt : that's the same as buying a breakout
[2015-07-16 04:55:13] laisee : bot buying panic?
[2015-07-16 04:55:22] chrisxbt : selling panic
[2015-07-16 04:55:25] chrisxbt : buying breakout up
[2015-07-16 04:55:33] laisee : sure