This is a mirror of the original BitMEX trollbox archive that used to be online here.
BitMEX disabled their archive after the DDOS attack so I have decided to make my mirror publicly available.

Well now, a few days after I made this mirror available to the public, the original archive from BitMEX is online again.
But since it is still limited (neutered to the last few hundred messages) I will keep my FULL mirror alive.

You have access to more than 50 million trollbox posts. This is more than 7 gigabyte of data hosted on a $5 server so please be patient or consider a donation

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[2016-02-22 18:36:03] rapidtrades : how is it low risk? btc has dropped 50% in a year
[2016-02-22 18:36:39] rapidtrades : plus u have counter-party risk, which is substantial in btc land
[2016-02-22 18:36:49] jung1 : grow 6000% in 4 years
[2016-02-22 18:37:51] rapidtrades : and now it's down 60% from the highs over two years ago
[2016-02-22 18:38:23] BTCDJS : its because bitcoin price is so volitile
[2016-02-22 18:38:51] BTCDJS : Fiat is a more stable currency to provide loans
[2016-02-22 18:39:01] rapidtrades : right, so the risk by holding/lending btc is now low, in fact it's much higher then $
[2016-02-22 18:39:03] jung1 : ?
[2016-02-22 18:39:09] rapidtrades : not low*
[2016-02-22 18:39:30] jung1 : bolivar, ruble, ukrainian hrievna
[2016-02-22 18:39:38] jung1 : look at thei charts
[2016-02-22 18:39:51] rapidtrades : why don't u look at btc/usd
[2016-02-22 18:40:05] rapidtrades : cos the choise is between usd and btc, not ukrainian whatevers
[2016-02-22 18:41:06] jung1 : Im talking to @BTCDJS . They are fiats too
[2016-02-22 18:41:46] rapidtrades : ok but he was talking in the context of lending too...it's not like u can lend RUB on finex
[2016-02-22 18:42:01] BTCDJS : i don't know about all currency. but the majors are stable
[2016-02-22 18:42:10] jung1 : so far
[2016-02-22 18:42:57] BTCDJS : I'm talking GBP, EURO, USD. i don't live in ukrain
[2016-02-22 18:43:48] rapidtrades : well as smone who trades forex, only the dollar is relatively stable and only during the past few years....but volatility is definitely lower in the majors then in bitcoin
[2016-02-22 18:44:32] BTCDJS : and in majors when the price fluctuates a loaf of bread still costs the same
[2016-02-22 18:44:44] rapidtrades : prior to 08, the Euro/Pound/Aussie outperformed the dollar, so things fluctuate there too
[2016-02-22 18:45:29] BTCDJS : not like BTC where you can pay 4 different prices for a loaf of bread within a two week period
[2016-02-22 18:45:37] BTCDJS : just like your joke
[2016-02-22 18:45:38] rapidtrades : BTCDJS: right, that's if u hold your ''stash'' in the domestic currency
[2016-02-22 18:47:20] BTCDJS : correct
[2016-02-22 18:48:17] BTCDJS : would a larger market cap stabilise BTC?
[2016-02-22 18:48:31] BTCDJS : like 20 trillion
[2016-02-22 18:48:40] habibi : probally would be even more unstabilized then
[2016-02-22 18:48:40] habibi : imo
[2016-02-22 18:49:09] BTCDJS : what makes a currency stable?
[2016-02-22 18:49:15] rapidtrades : i think it would be more stable but not by much
[2016-02-22 18:49:52] rapidtrades : noone knows how to price bitcoin yet...just look at the rally last November
[2016-02-22 18:49:59] rapidtrades : why did it happen? who the f knows
[2016-02-22 18:50:04] habibi : bubble doesnt :) dont know what can make cryptocurrency stable, probally some support from companies/govs/people combined
[2016-02-22 18:51:02] rapidtrades : yeah noone is using btc right now
[2016-02-22 18:51:10] BTCDJS : yeah some sort of security
[2016-02-22 18:51:16] rapidtrades : we're all just speculating on its value
[2016-02-22 18:51:48] jung1 : yup
[2016-02-22 18:52:13] BTCDJS : well i hope the volatility doesn't stop any time soon
[2016-02-22 18:52:36] BTCDJS : otherwise we will be looking back saying "those were the days"
[2016-02-22 18:52:44] rapidtrades : me too :) last year was shit until october
[2016-02-22 18:53:21] BTCDJS : how high do you think it will go this time? 1000and settle near 800 maybe?
[2016-02-22 18:54:16] rapidtrades : no idea, I don't set profit targets
[2016-02-22 18:55:18] rapidtrades : making a guess, prolly between $520 and $600 :)
[2016-02-22 18:55:29] rapidtrades : i won't trade off that tho :)
[2016-02-22 18:56:06] tscha : habibi: why do you think that a high market cap would make bitcoin more unstable?
[2016-02-22 18:56:30] habibi : i didnt specify, if only it will be made by bubble
[2016-02-22 18:56:53] BTCDJS : yeah ill only short 600 if i can see its a strong resistance
[2016-02-22 18:57:49] habibi : coz bubble in such small markets=> many people with large ammount of btc to cash out=>violatily as hell in case 100-1000% up bubble
[2016-02-22 19:00:02] BTCDJS : i think the volatility may stop when the overall steady rise in price reaches a point where it will come too risky to play around with 200BTC
[2016-02-22 19:00:04] habibi : so Heathy grow with lots of corrections then maybe it won't influence violatily that much but then we need much more time
[2016-02-22 19:01:00] habibi : doesnt matter, its all about smaller or bigger players
[2016-02-22 19:02:00] Tulip_stefan : BTCDJS: it is always risky to play around with large positions because volatility spikes are unpredictable.
[2016-02-22 19:02:25] Tulip_stefan : (large as in, more than 2x-3x leverage)
[2016-02-22 19:02:58] BTCDJS : eventually though there will be more smaller players in the market that can take out bigger players. money has to change hands.
[2016-02-22 19:03:15] habibi : so there will be no bubble
[2016-02-22 19:03:17] BTCDJS : strength in number
[2016-02-22 19:04:11] habibi : bubble is not a random mirracle, its planned operation and the point is to take as much profit as possible for the one in charge
[2016-02-22 19:05:19] habibi : so these market makers control everything from btc deposits on exchanges to fiat deposits on major exchanges so they know what they can achieve if they start pumping/selling etc
[2016-02-22 19:05:42] habibi : controls intel of*
[2016-02-22 19:06:07] BTCDJS : bitcoin is more than just some dirty skank to mistreat for people who believe in it. its new technology in the financial sector. if too many people believe in it then it will survive.
[2016-02-22 19:06:08] Tulip_stefan : i'm a big player on some exchanges but there are no smaller players that can take money of of my hands, because i only trade when i believe i have the edge. Similar to forex, many trades are done by bots that only trade when they think they have some kind of statistical edge. The proposition that many small players take out a big player is nonsense. Only dumb big players let that happen.
[2016-02-22 19:06:31] BTCDJS : Tulip_stefan: I'm talking about future growth
[2016-02-22 19:07:10] Tulip_stefan : i really have no idea what you're talking about at this point.
[2016-02-22 19:08:06] habibi : on the other hand, many people used to believe in virgin that born a son and this son got killed and then respawn 3 days later.. and it didnt survived
[2016-02-22 19:08:10] habibi : oh wait, nvm.
[2016-02-22 19:08:17] habibi : wrong comparision. this one actually survived
[2016-02-22 19:08:31] BTCVIX : hello all
[2016-02-22 19:08:41] BTCDJS : BTCVIX: hello
[2016-02-22 19:08:44] habibi : hey vix
[2016-02-22 19:09:12] tscha : BTCVIX: heyho
[2016-02-22 19:09:21] BTCVIX : just checking out the new UI and playing around
[2016-02-22 19:09:27] habibi : Tulip_stefan u shouldnt be suprised, many people in btc things the same. i am calling them pure dreamers
[2016-02-22 19:09:49] tscha : BTCVIX: have you been trading here recently? like, in the last couple of weeks?
[2016-02-22 19:10:15] BTCVIX : no -- made an account a year ago -- have been watching the developments
[2016-02-22 19:10:20] BTCVIX : lots of great things happening now
[2016-02-22 19:11:11] tscha : indeed
[2016-02-22 19:14:13] habibi : anyway that dreaming in btc is part of violatily, when we go up many people imagine 20-50-100-200-1000% moves so they dont sell on small but stable profit as on typical stocks fe. so price rices more, then boom they selling, so downmoon to 300. etc etc :p
[2016-02-22 19:18:35] BTCDJS : yes that is the way bitcoin is now
[2016-02-22 19:19:05] BTCDJS : i wasn't really talking short term
[2016-02-22 19:19:45] habibi : what is long term in btc? more than it exist?
[2016-02-22 19:20:13] BTCDJS : i have no illusions that bitcoin is going somewhere and staying there yet. but despite its volatility it is still going up over all. the volatility is just great for us
[2016-02-22 19:20:16] Tulip_stefan : my endgame is 5-10 years.
[2016-02-22 19:20:37] Tulip_stefan : it will either be worth nothing or a lot by then.
[2016-02-22 19:21:37] BTCDJS : well I'm just holding and judge it as it goes
[2016-02-22 19:21:38] rapidtrades : everyone says that...which prolly means it will stay around here :)
[2016-02-22 19:22:10] Tulip_stefan : BTCDJS: volatility is good for me, but not for the average trader. the average trader has higher risk to enter a bad position on a volatile instrument.
[2016-02-22 19:22:21] rapidtrades : plz pleb
[2016-02-22 19:22:46] BTCDJS : who?
[2016-02-22 19:22:51] Tulip_stefan : plus, higher volatility means more trades, which means more money goes to the exchanges instead of the traders.
[2016-02-22 19:22:55] rapidtrades : you don't know aht the average tradeer does
[2016-02-22 19:23:40] rapidtrades : u have some ego for a guy that has no clue why his algo takes trades
[2016-02-22 19:24:15] Tulip_stefan : I have a fine model of what the average trader does.
[2016-02-22 19:24:36] rapidtrades : and what would that be
[2016-02-22 19:24:39] BTCDJS : have you got a chart?
[2016-02-22 19:26:20] Tulip_stefan : i don't have a chart, no. My model is based on shannon's demon. A thought experiment created by Claude Shannon (if you're in the same field as me, you know this guy). The experiment itself it useless, but the model has some interesting properties.
[2016-02-22 19:26:27] Tulip_stefan : i use it to benchmark my strategies against.
[2016-02-22 19:27:09] Tulip_stefan : i keep telling myself that i have a blog post ready 'this weekend' that explains it, but was too busy coding..
[2016-02-22 19:27:10] BTCDJS : what about game theory? or other theories?
[2016-02-22 19:28:11] Tulip_stefan : I don't do game theory. I just ignore what everyone else does.
[2016-02-22 19:28:46] BTCDJS : how much you worth?
[2016-02-22 19:29:06] Tulip_stefan : english please?
[2016-02-22 19:29:06] BTCDJS : you must be worth a load!
[2016-02-22 19:30:29] Tulip_stefan : nah. The only thing i care about is having fun. And developing this thing is my definition of fun :P
[2016-02-22 19:30:39] BTCDJS : you know what the average trader does. your bots are making you money. you've gotta be at least 2 mil
[2016-02-22 19:31:33] BTCDJS : you know who gets rich? people to take great risks
[2016-02-22 19:31:48] Tulip_stefan : as i said yesterday, I'm a lowly salaried worker. I really don't care how much i'm worth to some company.
[2016-02-22 19:32:11] BTCDJS : nah its just the way you talk mate
[2016-02-22 19:32:19] BTCDJS : thats why i ask
[2016-02-22 19:37:21] Tulip_stefan : In what way? It's kind of hard to gauge 'the way i talk' myself...
[2016-02-22 19:37:59] habibi : Tulip_stefan: yea everyone says that, even satoshi did
[2016-02-22 19:38:59] Tulip_stefan : you referring to my last message?
[2016-02-22 19:39:46] habibi : nah, sorry my chat didnt scroll down. about 5-10 years from now
[2016-02-22 19:40:01] Tulip_stefan : ahh.
[2016-02-22 19:40:19] jung1 : hate when it happens
[2016-02-22 19:50:29] mrp1nk : Tulip_stefan: i would be interested what you mean by "you know how the average trader behaves"
[2016-02-22 19:53:22] mrp1nk : you mean fomoing?
[2016-02-22 19:54:55] rapidtrades : mrp1nk: dude, he uses a model based on Shannon's demon..duh
[2016-02-22 19:55:33] rapidtrades : didn't u read his reply earlier
[2016-02-22 19:56:38] mrp1nk : rapidtrades: sry missed that
[2016-02-22 20:04:49] rapidtrades : did we ever trade a disocunt today
[2016-02-22 20:05:20] BTCDJS : disco cunt?
[2016-02-22 20:05:33] BTCDJS : oh diso cunt
[2016-02-22 20:05:51] rapidtrades : the latter obv
[2016-02-22 20:06:20] BTCDJS : i didnt
[2016-02-22 20:08:13] BTCDJS : hey rapid. You got a job or is this all you do?
[2016-02-22 20:10:07] BTCDJS : @rapidtrades
[2016-02-22 20:10:39] rapidtrades : pretty much this and forex
[2016-02-22 20:10:56] BTCDJS : does it pay well?
[2016-02-22 20:11:27] rapidtrades : depends on ur capital, it pays ok...better then last year :)
[2016-02-22 20:13:26] BTCDJS : how long have you been trading?
[2016-02-22 20:15:13] rapidtrades : over 11 yrs now, if u count from the first time i started but not all of it full time
[2016-02-22 20:15:29] BTCDJS : this is the last question @rapidtrades i just want to get an idea of wether its worth it. because id love to be able to do this all day once i get better
[2016-02-22 20:16:33] BTCDJS : you get sick of it?
[2016-02-22 20:16:40] Tulip_stefan : it's not worth it. Won't beat the market over a long enough time horizon.
[2016-02-22 20:16:54] rapidtrades : BTCDJS: never
[2016-02-22 20:17:06] Tulip_stefan : forex is the domain of armies of phd students. In 5 years, bitcoin will be the same.
[2016-02-22 20:17:36] rapidtrades : Tulip_stefan: thank u for ur opinion random walker
[2016-02-22 20:17:58] sleger : I doubt rapid has a phd, and he trades forex
[2016-02-22 20:18:08] tscha : haha
[2016-02-22 20:19:11] justinlooking : 429 or 449 sleger ?
[2016-02-22 20:21:15] rapidtrades : BTCDJS: for forex, the median time seems to be 3 yrs, took me longer then that....bitcoin markets are easier due to higher volatility...still i doubt u'll make money in ur first year
[2016-02-22 20:21:22] sleger : 449
[2016-02-22 20:21:37] justinlooking : ty was gonna take sideways as your final answer
[2016-02-22 20:22:10] sleger : i have a small long since settlement today
[2016-02-22 20:22:47] rapidtrades : so whether it's worth it, i guess that's up to u :) it will be very hard though
[2016-02-22 20:24:47] BTCDJS : rapidtrades: oh jeeze no I'm brand new. I don't expect to or even assume i know enough to make money. I'm just taking advantage of this bull market because as you say its easier.
[2016-02-22 20:25:08] BTCDJS : but i feel like i got the bug
[2016-02-22 20:26:09] sleger : BTCDJS: only play what you can afford to give me !
[2016-02-22 20:26:23] Tulip_stefan : i second that.
[2016-02-22 20:27:33] rapidtrades : trade very small and use ur regular job to save up for trading capital....if u have good results afte a year maybe deploy more of that capital @BTCDJS
[2016-02-22 20:31:16] BTCDJS : I'm going to set a goal of turning 0.1 into 0.5 after this bull market. I think I'm hooked. That time i took away has given my brain time to mull over the stuff i learned when i was on it constantly. @rapidtrades
[2016-02-22 20:31:42] rapidtrades : 0.5 btc?
[2016-02-22 20:32:14] BTCDJS : yeah
[2016-02-22 20:32:57] BTCDJS : yeah them more and more but thats the first hurdle
[2016-02-22 20:33:36] sleger : over how long ?
[2016-02-22 20:33:48] rapidtrades : tbf i would do it right now, if u start off ur trading career losing thousands of dollars, u'll prolly give up @BTCDJS
[2016-02-22 20:34:04] rapidtrades : ppl that come for the bull market usually over stay their welcome :)
[2016-02-22 20:34:27] Tulip_stefan : The random walk gives you 20% probability to succeed based on pure luck May the odds be on your favor.
[2016-02-22 20:34:55] rapidtrades : Tulip_stefan: WHY ARE U EVEN HERE...THIS IS A TRADING CHATROOM
[2016-02-22 20:35:54] BTCDJS : im not playing anything i am not prepared to lose mate. @rapidtrades But I'm not doing it by planning so to speak. so I'm going to set goals from now on.
[2016-02-22 20:36:53] rapidtrades : BTCDJS: ok try not to lose money then...I think u made some $ since u started? so use that as ur capital
[2016-02-22 20:37:58] rapidtrades : anyway just a suggestion :)
[2016-02-22 20:38:54] BTCDJS : yesterday i went long. i got caught up in the bull mania. I should've paid attention to the 4h chart before i made a move. because if i did i would've shorted instead of long. so I broke even again because of that mistake. ? But yeah I appreciate the input. I like to learn.
[2016-02-22 20:39:43] BTCDJS : thats why i ask so many questions to experienced traders
[2016-02-22 20:44:05] REKT : Liquidated short on `XBT24H`: Buy 2000 @ 441.56
[2016-02-22 21:08:35] BTCDJS : who agrees with me that this bull run isn't happening for another 5 hours?
[2016-02-22 21:15:19] tscha : BTCDJS: whats your average contract size when you have an open position?
[2016-02-22 21:27:55] BTCDJS : tscha: 7000
[2016-02-22 21:28:22] BTCDJS : And if I think long but aren't sure 2000
[2016-02-22 21:28:57] BTCDJS : But during that last run over the weekend I put 45000 on.
[2016-02-22 21:29:15] tscha : you meant 70, not 7000, right? because you only have 0.1 btc... or you tried to be funny
[2016-02-22 21:29:37] BTCDJS : Only got .47btc when I thought I was going to get 1.3btc.
[2016-02-22 21:30:14] BTCDJS : 7000 contracts on 24H
[2016-02-22 21:31:34] BTCDJS : No mate I'm not trying to be funny. That's what I'm comfortable with
[2016-02-22 21:31:58] tscha : why would you trade 7000 contracts when you have so little funds
[2016-02-22 21:32:24] mrp1nk : yolo?!
[2016-02-22 21:32:35] BTCDJS : How exactly do you know how much funds I have?
[2016-02-22 21:33:30] tscha : Hacking skills
[2016-02-22 21:33:41] BTCDJS : Bull
[2016-02-22 21:34:04] tscha : nice long position btw
[2016-02-22 21:34:52] BTCDJS : Thanks. But keeping it is the next thing to learn lol
[2016-02-22 21:37:47] sleger : he knows cause you just said it ealier : 0.1
[2016-02-22 21:38:28] sleger : trading with so little funds, does that even pay the electric bill your computer is using, or its deterioration
[2016-02-22 21:39:17] laisee : cheaper than paying for online gaming, if you win
[2016-02-22 21:39:44] BTCDJS : no @sleger i said i was going to use 0.1 and try to turn it into 0.5
[2016-02-22 21:40:11] sleger : still means you dont have that much more
[2016-02-22 21:40:27] Tulip_stefan : I started with the equivalent of 0.0015 BTC. Even if the profits aren't great, the fact that you're learning stuff means something.
[2016-02-22 21:40:45] BTCDJS : ha ha trying to pull me into a fight hey?
[2016-02-22 21:41:24] sleger : but once did it systematically with an algo and research , the other is trying to "beat the market"
[2016-02-22 21:42:09] Tulip_stefan : I have no idea of your profits, i'm just pointing out that comparing by electricity price is bullshit. Do you measure your gaming hours in profit from steam goodies minus the electricity costs too?
[2016-02-22 21:46:35] BTCDJS : sleger: actually this is the way I'm looking at trading: the goal is to make money. but don't make money the goal. Learn from making decisions what I did wrong. Learn tech analysis. and see how wrong or accurate it can be and see if i can find out why the price moved the way it did rather than what i thought. How not to become emotional by being self observant. see when I'm getting carried away. and more stuff. this is how i look at trading. because i love it. Its not all about the market and the money. its about the experience and finding out about myself and learning discipline.
[2016-02-22 21:47:38] sleger : oh ok then it's a video game
[2016-02-22 21:49:13] Tulip_stefan : That's how i started too. Good luck. 2 years in, i still regard my hobby bitcoin trading 90% fun and 10% profits.
[2016-02-22 21:52:17] BTCDJS : so far i learned the emotional stuff. how to deal with losing. How to avoid gambler mentality but still take risks. now i feel i need to move in the direction of having the discipline to set a goal and reach it. so only small amount is necessary for that. right now i want to take advantage of bullishness because they only come once in a while
[2016-02-22 21:58:47] Tulip_stefan : I was always bad with the emotional stuff. Part of the reason i don't trade manually.
[2016-02-22 22:00:29] Tulip_stefan : be careful with the risks you're talking about. In that one hour you're away from your computer the price can crash and margin call everyone with over 10x leverage, and you can never see it coming.
[2016-02-22 22:01:39] BTCDJS : Tulip_stefan: noted ?
[2016-02-22 22:02:32] Tulip_stefan : I trade with a max leverage of 3x of a reason.
[2016-02-22 22:02:58] BTCDJS : I'm sure everyone here has seen some idiots come and go here. I don't plan on being one of them
[2016-02-22 22:04:50] BTCDJS : i may be a little misguided and inexperienced at the start though ?
[2016-02-22 22:06:25] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 868 @ 439.50
[2016-02-22 22:06:25] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT48H`: Sell 55 @ 440.61
[2016-02-22 22:07:04] Tulip_stefan : It's not about being an idiot or not. The market is random enough that it is almost impossible to determine how good you are.
[2016-02-22 22:07:34] Tulip_stefan : that's one of the major problems i have not solved yet, determining how good a strategy is.
[2016-02-22 22:10:46] rapidtrades : Tulip_stefan: that's because ur a programmer not a trader
[2016-02-22 22:11:21] Tulip_stefan : You're a trader. How do you determine how good a strategy is?
[2016-02-22 22:11:33] rapidtrades : risk adjusted returns
[2016-02-22 22:12:10] tscha : lol
[2016-02-22 22:12:54] Tulip_stefan : That's cool and all. But even if you're wrong 45% of the time, you may still have winning months/years.
[2016-02-22 22:13:05] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 2500 @ 438.61
[2016-02-22 22:13:05] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 2000 @ 438.64
[2016-02-22 22:13:13] Tulip_stefan : looking at the returns over less than a few hundred trades tells you nothing.
[2016-02-22 22:13:33] rapidtrades : Tulip_stefan: agree
[2016-02-22 22:13:55] rapidtrades : i backtest as far back as i can
[2016-02-22 22:14:03] BTCDJS : Tulip_stefan: the best computer on earth (brain) can do great things if you can learn to step out of your own way. don't you think?
[2016-02-22 22:15:05] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 793 @ 438.01
[2016-02-22 22:15:05] REKT : Blood on the streets!
[2016-02-22 22:15:28] Tulip_stefan : Backtesting is incredibly hard. If you don't have a machine learning background, you can pretty much forget about doing it correctly.
[2016-02-22 22:16:50] Tulip_stefan : BTCDJS: yup, but i don't see where you're coming from. What's your point?
[2016-02-22 22:17:21] BTCDJS : Tulip_stefan: the man is obviously successful at it without needing a bot. Im sure he knows what he is talking about.
[2016-02-22 22:17:50] rapidtrades : BTCDJS: he's a random walker
[2016-02-22 22:17:53] BTCDJS : you said earlier about not being able to trade manually
[2016-02-22 22:18:25] BTCDJS : lol
[2016-02-22 22:18:32] Tulip_stefan : We're currently not talking about trading, but evaluating a strategy.
[2016-02-22 22:19:18] rapidtrades : i do backest plus forward testing....
[2016-02-22 22:19:18] sleger : Tulip_stefan: return, sharpe, max drawdown is usually all one needs to evaluate a strategy (depending on what one means by evaluate)
[2016-02-22 22:19:35] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 166 @ 437.62
[2016-02-22 22:20:28] BTCDJS : well i don't think there is A strategy. As far as i can see there is a load of different things that have to come together and you must be able to adapt and change. and only the best computer in the world can change that way.
[2016-02-22 22:21:17] justinlooking : /me ponders market stops
[2016-02-22 22:21:20] Tulip_stefan : sleger: True, but that means i must wait multiple months before i can evaluate a strategy. It makes developing quite tiresome sometimes.
[2016-02-22 22:21:26] REKT : Liquidated short on `ETH7D`: Buy 400 @ 0.01273
[2016-02-22 22:21:26] REKT : Liquidated short on `ETH7D`: Buy 4 @ 0.01265 :punch: :whale:
[2016-02-22 22:21:47] Tulip_stefan : My bot's first trade is already 106% in profit...
[2016-02-22 22:22:09] BTCDJS : kudos
[2016-02-22 22:22:42] Tulip_stefan : mostly luck that the market entered a downtrend just after it brought. It had no idea the trend was coming.
[2016-02-22 22:22:50] sleger : Tulip_stefan: if you mean evaluate new strategies then you evaluate their backtest results
[2016-02-22 22:22:51] Tulip_stefan : brought a short.
[2016-02-22 22:23:17] sleger : especially if they are not high freq strategies it is very easy to backtest properly
[2016-02-22 22:23:43] BTCDJS : any links to this backtesting strategies?
[2016-02-22 22:24:41] BTCDJS : oh this is for bots?
[2016-02-22 22:24:47] Tulip_stefan : sleger: I've found that it is notoriously hard to backtest. My bot support many exchanges only because they did well in the backtester, but in practice they didn't perform very well.. Plus, we also have the problem of overfitting.
[2016-02-22 22:25:06] REKT : Liquidated long on `XBT24H`: Sell 1 @ 437.13 :punch: :whale:
[2016-02-22 22:25:39] Tulip_stefan : you don't need bots to backtest, only a strategy if you can follow it yourself.
[2016-02-22 22:25:43] sleger : overfitting is another issue. Evaluating a backtest means that if you put it in prod and compare the prod results to a later backtest over the same period results will match well
[2016-02-22 22:26:36] rapidtrades : Tulip_stefan: forward testing helps to confirm ur strat isn't overfitted BS
[2016-02-22 22:26:54] sleger : but you're wasting market time
[2016-02-22 22:27:07] sleger : and you can do it in backtest if you know how to do it without overfitting
[2016-02-22 22:27:56] Tulip_stefan : yeah i'm aware of train/test/cv sets used in machine learning. Because my strategy is relatively simple in terms of parameter freedom, i usually run a backtest over the last year and use the results as a starting point for my bot parameters. Then i run out a few bots wit different settings and see how they do over the next month or so.
[2016-02-22 22:28:13] kb1985 : Do i need to activate Margin in some way?
[2016-02-22 22:28:47] BTCDJS : need? or how to? are you asking
[2016-02-22 22:30:32] rapidtrades : sleger: how do u do it without overfitting? the only way i know is to keep things as simple as possible
[2016-02-22 22:31:09] sleger : no there are ways, have you heard about in and out sample ?
[2016-02-22 22:31:22] rapidtrades : oh right
[2016-02-22 22:31:32] rapidtrades : that's kinda what i do with forward tests
[2016-02-22 22:31:50] kb1985 : I just registered because of high Margin here and wondering if i need to verify Somehow or can i just transfer funds and Margin trade immediately
[2016-02-22 22:32:01] sleger : yes except you dont lose time not trading
[2016-02-22 22:32:05] rapidtrades : guess u could do that instead if ur really eager to jump in
[2016-02-22 22:32:25] justinlooking : kb1985: only req is ur not in usa i think
[2016-02-22 22:33:04] kb1985 : And i can Margin x10?
[2016-02-22 22:33:10] kb1985 : on all coins?
[2016-02-22 22:33:26] BitMEX_Sam : Up to 100x on Bitcoin, 15x on Ethereum
[2016-02-22 22:33:26] mrp1nk : kb1985: dude, you can even x100
[2016-02-22 22:33:41] sleger : you can even x200
[2016-02-22 22:33:52] kb1985 : Insane! :D
[2016-02-22 22:33:54] Tulip_stefan : XBT24h is margin 100x. If you contracts worth 10% of your portfolio, it's effectively 10x margin.
[2016-02-22 22:34:00] kb1985 : dangerous game
[2016-02-22 22:34:02] justinlooking : i smell dpe
[2016-02-22 22:34:22] rapidtrades : so many plebs here lately :) @justinlooking
[2016-02-22 22:34:55] rapidtrades : kb1985: are u long bro?
[2016-02-22 22:34:56] ayy lmao : someone must be referring a lot
[2016-02-22 22:35:04] ayy lmao : up to 408 users
[2016-02-22 22:35:16] rapidtrades : i think it's jsut the bull market
[2016-02-22 22:35:26] kb1985 : rapidtrades: i am just looking around, playnig with small amounts, thught it woudl be fun with margin on small amounts but looking for huge markin
[2016-02-22 22:36:55] kb1985 : So any hidden details and tricks I should know why traing to play with margin? willing to risk with small amount of money, not sure if on BTC or ETH now and whcch direction, justa gamble
[2016-02-22 22:39:17] kb1985 : not enough liquidity to play with ETH here, right? better BTC here?
[2016-02-22 22:39:44] BTCDJS : rapidtrades: i just read something about backtesting. Is there a lot more stuff like this to be learned?
[2016-02-22 22:39:56] sleger : yes
[2016-02-22 22:40:13] rapidtrades : i do it by hand, so can't teach u much :)
[2016-02-22 22:40:50] rapidtrades : BTCDJS: keep entry parameters low, test at least a few 100 trades and then do forward test
[2016-02-22 22:41:12] sleger : kb1985: i just made 1.5btc gambling randomly on eth, you should try it
[2016-02-22 22:42:22] BTCDJS : rapidtrades: ok trying to get this stuff in my head
[2016-02-22 22:42:30] BTCDJS : ill keep that in mind
[2016-02-22 22:42:50] BTCDJS : for after i understand it ?
[2016-02-22 22:43:42] BTCDJS : sleger: really? Ah i only made 0.6 @kb1985
[2016-02-22 22:43:56] sleger : BTCDJS: ETH7D 400 0.00977 0.01255 -.-- 1.3769 XBT 400.00 ETH 1.1133 XBT (427.47%) 0.4468 XBT
[2016-02-22 22:43:58] kb1985 : depending with how much you sarted ;)
[2016-02-22 22:44:13] sleger : only 600 contracts, sold 200
[2016-02-22 22:44:24] rapidtrades : backtesting is only useful if u plan to use strict rules for entry/exits @BTCDJS
[2016-02-22 22:44:33] BTCDJS : sleger: and here i thought you were winding the lad up
[2016-02-22 22:45:22] BTCDJS : rapidtrades: ok but i still want to know it ?
[2016-02-22 22:45:47] sleger : not sure what that means ?
[2016-02-22 22:45:53] sleger : to wind the lad up ?
[2016-02-22 22:46:01] justinlooking : teasing
[2016-02-22 22:46:24] mrp1nk : shilling
[2016-02-22 22:46:45] mrp1nk : :-)
[2016-02-22 22:46:46] BTCDJS : sleger: like taking the piss
[2016-02-22 22:47:28] sleger : I never joke about money
[2016-02-22 22:47:59] rapidtrades : BTCDJS: idk try this http://www.tradinggeeks.net/2015/12/trading-strategy-backtesting-guide/
[2016-02-22 22:49:25] rapidtrades : basically that plus u add another layer of forward testing...this is where u trade that strategy in the real market with small amount to see if it works
[2016-02-22 22:50:27] BTCDJS : rapidtrades: thanks for the link. Do you use it for trading bitcoin?
[2016-02-22 22:50:37] jung1 : damn you eth
[2016-02-22 22:50:53] jung1 : we're going to $100
[2016-02-22 22:50:57] jung1 : told ya
[2016-02-22 22:50:59] jung1 : hehe
[2016-02-22 22:52:04] rapidtrades : BTCDJS: yeah most of my trading is done manually but with strict rules that have been backtested
[2016-02-22 22:52:17] BTCDJS : rapidtrades: it talks about an automated rule based algorithm. what the heck is that and how do you run an algorithm
[2016-02-22 22:52:18] jung1 : rapidtrades: share with us!
[2016-02-22 22:52:41] rapidtrades : BTCDJS: i do it all by hand like i said above :)
[2016-02-22 22:53:23] jung1 : handjob
[2016-02-22 22:53:27] BTCDJS : rapidtrades: is looking at the chart history and past resistance the same thing?
[2016-02-22 22:53:48] BTCDJS : past support and resistance
[2016-02-22 22:53:54] rapidtrades : BTCDJS: yes kinda...but the rule has to be objective
[2016-02-22 22:54:12] BTCDJS : ?
[2016-02-22 22:54:55] rapidtrades : well for example, a common technique for trading breakouts is to look for the highest high of the past X trading periods
[2016-02-22 22:55:25] rapidtrades : or lowest low
[2016-02-22 22:55:45] rapidtrades : that's an objective entry point that can be backtested
[2016-02-22 22:56:42] BTCDJS : so in the case of bitcoin 0-1000
[2016-02-22 22:57:21] BTCDJS : past x trading periods
[2016-02-22 22:57:26] BTCDJS : gotcha
[2016-02-22 22:57:29] tscha : BitMEX_Sam: btw, whats the current state concerning personal stats? just brainstorming atm or explicit changes on the way to testnet?
[2016-02-22 22:59:07] BTCDJS : rapidtrades: ok heres what i get when i do this....
[2016-02-22 23:00:46] REKT : Liquidated short on `ETH7D`: Buy 400 @ 0.01282
[2016-02-22 23:01:03] jung1 : damn no sell orders on eth
[2016-02-22 23:01:26] habibi : bfx pump
[2016-02-22 23:01:34] rapidtrades : on?
[2016-02-22 23:01:36] habibi : i mean rumors about adding eth to bfx
[2016-02-22 23:01:44] rapidtrades : pfffft
[2016-02-22 23:01:59] jung1 : meh. I closed my longs since 970 at 120
[2016-02-22 23:02:08] jung1 : should kepp it
[2016-02-22 23:02:12] jung1 : keep
[2016-02-22 23:02:55] jung1 : we can hit 0.02 in this week
[2016-02-22 23:03:21] rapidtrades : we'll prolly hit 0.005 instead :)
[2016-02-22 23:03:33] jung1 : depends on btc
[2016-02-22 23:03:52] rapidtrades : meh smtimes i feel eth has been leading
[2016-02-22 23:03:56] jung1 : if there will be btc pump jump on short ETH
[2016-02-22 23:04:06] jung1 : 'yeah
[2016-02-22 23:04:15] rapidtrades : if it dumps btc rallies etc
[2016-02-22 23:04:17] jung1 : only currency that dont give a fuck about btc
[2016-02-22 23:04:35] rapidtrades : no it just means it's in bubble mode
[2016-02-22 23:04:44] jung1 : still cool
[2016-02-22 23:05:25] sleger : that was an easy 1.8btc, free steaks tonight
[2016-02-22 23:05:29] rapidtrades : idk that fall seems way too big to be a retracement
[2016-02-22 23:06:14] rapidtrades : also etherium's shit
[2016-02-22 23:08:10] rapidtrades : ok gonna try to catch some zzs
[2016-02-22 23:11:55] BTCDJS : rapidtrades: I don't mean to sound like i know what I'm talking about. but If you go to sleep now you will miss the bull run
[2016-02-22 23:12:12] jung1 : on btc?
[2016-02-22 23:12:19] BTCDJS : yup
[2016-02-22 23:13:11] BTCDJS : no wait sorry still another hour to go
[2016-02-22 23:13:30] jung1 : https://cryptowat.ch/kraken/ethbtc/1m
[2016-02-22 23:14:26] BTCDJS : perfect time to short eth
[2016-02-22 23:15:04] habibi : its euphoria
[2016-02-22 23:15:19] habibi : if it will keep this way no shorting till end
[2016-02-22 23:15:46] jung1 : well 7d will give some good revenue
[2016-02-22 23:16:00] jung1 : we will attack 0.02 in few days imo
[2016-02-22 23:16:24] jung1 : and then $100 @habibi
[2016-02-22 23:16:29] habibi : yea yea, we won't make new highs imo
[2016-02-22 23:17:15] habibi : what do market makers when there is blind euphoria on streets? they finally dont have to defend price from falling, and can sell loads of it and price still will go up
[2016-02-22 23:17:16] jung1 : lets make a bet for żołądkowa gorzka if in next 7 days we will make new ath I win
[2016-02-22 23:17:19] jung1 : if not you
[2016-02-22 23:17:22] habibi : coz noone is selling beside them! :)
[2016-02-22 23:17:29] habibi : k
[2016-02-22 23:17:36] jung1 : send to paczkomat
[2016-02-22 23:17:39] jung1 : deal?
[2016-02-22 23:17:44] habibi : i am not betting, but as its about vodka, deal
[2016-02-22 23:17:47] jung1 : or we will make some smart contract
[2016-02-22 23:18:11] jung1 : ok thne
[2016-02-22 23:18:11] habibi : i will be able to exchange u that to some amnesia haze if u dont mind as well, in case u right
[2016-02-22 23:18:14] BTCDJS : ?
[2016-02-22 23:18:24] jung1 : even better
[2016-02-22 23:18:36] habibi : 0.7*
[2016-02-22 23:18:37] habibi : vodka :)
[2016-02-22 23:18:45] jung1 : ok
[2016-02-22 23:18:54] habibi : deal. 7 days
[2016-02-22 23:19:00] jung1 : I will add bottle of my homebrew beer
[2016-02-22 23:19:06] zanza : so the new website upgrade changes the "users" somehow? It seems to be double now
[2016-02-22 23:19:20] jung1 : 01.03 00:15
[2016-02-22 23:20:11] zanza : is LTC delisted?
[2016-02-22 23:20:21] BTCDJS : yeah
[2016-02-22 23:20:22] habibi : great:)
[2016-02-22 23:20:28] jung1 : oh seems like
[2016-02-22 23:20:34] jung1 : didnt noticed
[2016-02-22 23:21:44] jung1 : habibi: pay by bitcoin, send by paczkomat. love it
[2016-02-22 23:23:09] zanza : and a 48H now ?
[2016-02-22 23:25:11] BTCDJS : yeah its for 24H but it rolls over to the next 24H @zanza
[2016-02-22 23:25:20] zanza : that will be some complicated bot algorithm programming to utilize that
[2016-02-22 23:26:00] BTCDJS : zanza: I wouldn't know about that. guess they are doing ok to afford it lol
[2016-02-22 23:26:28] BTCDJS : unless sam the man is the genius behind it
[2016-02-22 23:27:47] zanza : no, MM bots
[2016-02-22 23:27:58] zanza : to arbitrage between 24H/48H
[2016-02-22 23:29:29] BTCDJS : Ill take your word for it as I'm not a programmer ?
[2016-02-22 23:30:13] zanza : I don't really see the point of this though
[2016-02-22 23:30:24] zanza : anyone wanna explain it to me? :)
[2016-02-22 23:30:46] BTCDJS : what 48H?
[2016-02-22 23:30:50] jung1 : Sam is realsolid from mcx
[2016-02-22 23:30:55] BTCDJS : so we can hold longer
[2016-02-22 23:31:41] BTCDJS : don't you just hate the settlement occurring in the middle of a bull run?
[2016-02-22 23:32:09] jung1 : no
[2016-02-22 23:32:12] jung1 : we are full of love
[2016-02-22 23:49:25] zanza : buy 7D?
[2016-02-22 23:49:59] jung1 : Im in
[2016-02-22 23:50:28] jung1 : quite safe if you add some margin and have liq at 0.012
[2016-02-22 23:51:23] jung1 : https://cryptowat.ch/kraken/ethbtc/1m looks healthy imo
[2016-02-22 23:52:00] zanza : 450 is resistance ?
[2016-02-22 23:52:25] zanza : oh, thats ether lol
[2016-02-22 23:52:36] zanza : where is boss rapidtrades ?
[2016-02-22 23:52:48] jung1 : we fired him
[2016-02-22 23:52:59] habibi : 1minute charts cant look healthy or not :p
[2016-02-22 23:53:00] zanza : rofl
[2016-02-22 23:53:34] jung1 : habibi: you sounds like you are scarry about our bet
[2016-02-22 23:53:57] zanza : so as far as I can tell, the new 48H contract is for people who want 100x leverage, but longer than 24H. I think this will increase DPE risk for 24H
[2016-02-22 23:54:02] habibi : not at all, would be awsome if u would be able to send u that :)
[2016-02-22 23:54:14] jung1 : https://cryptowat.ch/kraken/ethbtc/12h
[2016-02-22 23:54:15] zanza : since you have 100x leverage over 2 day period now
[2016-02-22 23:54:16] jung1 : even better
[2016-02-22 23:54:47] jung1 : habibi: I will send you my beer no matter what will be result of our bet
[2016-02-22 23:54:52] jung1 : karma will back
[2016-02-22 23:55:12] habibi : what makes people believe in karma and then again dont believe in jesus budda or whatever?
[2016-02-22 23:55:20] jung1 : jak polubisz coinformacje na fb bo fejm mi sie nie zgadza troche tam
[2016-02-22 23:55:31] jung1 : or flying spaghetti monster
[2016-02-22 23:56:20] habibi : same 3rd party power that we imagine as the one that had influencje on ourselves.
[2016-02-22 23:56:36] habibi : nie mam fb, z dziewczyny konta nie bede robil maniany :p
[2016-02-22 23:56:40] habibi : albo zreszta poczekaj
[2016-02-22 23:57:09] jung1 : nie no beka
[2016-02-22 23:58:10] habibi : zrobione
[2016-02-23 00:01:16] jung1 : blogsatoshi@gmail.com napisz, że byles ostatnio na spotkaniu i piszesz w sprawie bitków do bitcurex
[2016-02-23 00:01:24] jung1 : dostaniesz kod na 15pln na bitcurex
[2016-02-23 00:02:47] habibi : nie chce od niego kodu :p nie lubie gościa za to co zrobil z ambasadą btc :p
[2016-02-23 00:06:55] zanza : Do any of you polish people like PolandBall? https://www.reddit.com/r/polandball
[2016-02-23 00:07:07] cryptostephen : i love Bitmex personally and am going to start shilling a lot more for them on Twitter
[2016-02-23 00:15:53] cryptostephen : hey does bitmex have a fee for each trade? Like when i got into my position it automatically said -0.014 over where it says realised PNL
[2016-02-23 00:16:01] cryptostephen : but my unrealised PNL is +21%
[2016-02-23 00:16:27] sleger : you love bitmex but dont even know what fee you're paying ?
[2016-02-23 00:17:03] jung1 : zanza: shure
[2016-02-23 00:17:14] jung1 : I have poster "poland cannot into space
[2016-02-23 00:17:40] BTCDJS : one more little dip down to 437/438/439 and we are off and i can finally go to bed after that
[2016-02-23 00:22:52] BitMEX_Wally : cryptostephen: Our fee schedule is here: https://www.bitmex.com/app/fees
[2016-02-23 00:23:19] jung1 : BitMEX_Wally: you delisted ltc?
[2016-02-23 00:23:38] BitMEX_Wally : jung1: Yes for the time being. No-one was trading it
[2016-02-23 00:23:52] jung1 : good
[2016-02-23 00:24:03] jung1 : you have ltc still on fee schedule
[2016-02-23 00:24:55] jung1 : cryptostephen: https://www.bitmex.com/register/CunK1W with this link you will have 10% discount of fees
[2016-02-23 00:25:37] sleger : shame on you @jung1
[2016-02-23 00:25:49] jung1 : what? its true
[2016-02-23 00:25:49] sleger : imagine if 412 users start posting their own referral link
[2016-02-23 00:26:06] jung1 : there are only 10 users on trollbox
[2016-02-23 00:26:26] sleger : cryptostephen: create an account with some email then refer your other email and create account with it
[2016-02-23 00:26:52] jung1 : bitmexception
[2016-02-23 00:35:00] tscha : bitfinex going to add ETHUSD to their exchange.. nice
[2016-02-23 00:35:06] tscha : moontime for eth
[2016-02-23 00:35:35] sleger : yes just like darkcoin ?
[2016-02-23 00:38:02] cryptostephen : you guys need to buy DCR on Bittrex. Decred going to the moon
[2016-02-23 00:40:17] tscha : haha, just looked it up, the day that finex announced adding darkcoin to their exchange was pretty much the all-time market cap peak (june 2th): http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/dash/
[2016-02-23 00:40:33] tscha : june 2th 2014
[2016-02-23 00:41:46] REKT : Liquidated short on `ETH7D`: Buy 8 @ 0.01329
[2016-02-23 00:45:06] jung1 : someone closed long on eth
[2016-02-23 00:45:33] sleger : I closed some but only 600
[2016-02-23 00:45:56] sleger : free diner tonight
[2016-02-23 00:46:04] jung1 : cryptostephen: yeah decred could be huge
[2016-02-23 00:46:21] jung1 : decred, factom, eth
[2016-02-23 00:47:28] sleger : maybe eth will keep some value but the others...
[2016-02-23 00:47:46] jung1 : factom is ethereum based currency
[2016-02-23 00:49:26] REKT : Liquidated short on `ETH7D`: Buy 200 @ 0.01369
[2016-02-23 00:51:26] lockhedge : tscha: is the bitfinex story confirmed or just this one screenshot?
[2016-02-23 00:51:44] tscha : not confirmed yet, but very unlikely to be fake imho
[2016-02-23 00:53:17] sleger : best time to short : 1-2 hours after listing on bitfinex
[2016-02-23 00:54:43] lockhedge : @tscha wouldn't be that sure https://twitter.com/CollinCrypto/status/701912370839429126/photo/1
[2016-02-23 00:55:02] habibi : yea thats strange
[2016-02-23 00:55:26] habibi : same thing was said from finex administrator today
[2016-02-23 00:56:44] jung1 : eth have still some space for grow
[2016-02-23 00:57:00] jung1 : I say it couse Im long
[2016-02-23 01:01:53] tscha : lockhedge: well, confirmed by multiple redditors, some of them reputated accounts, I am 100% sure those screenshots are real
[2016-02-23 01:02:58] tscha : highly unlikely they all collaborate to spread fake information. If those were 1-day-accounts maybe, but not reputated members
[2016-02-23 01:03:34] habibi : yea thats true
[2016-02-23 01:03:45] habibi : but still why finex guy denied that
[2016-02-23 01:04:15] tscha : they also took it down again from https://beta.bitfinex.com/managewallets since it attracted too much attention
[2016-02-23 01:04:37] tscha : no clue why they even put it up there, but well... I don't really care and I'm off, good night guys
[2016-02-23 01:04:49] habibi : gnight tscha
[2016-02-23 01:08:49] lockhedge : tscha: the headline should have been "Bitfinex testing ETH/USD on their beta platform" not "Bitfinex going to add ETH/USD"
[2016-02-23 01:09:28] lockhedge : it's not more real than the XBT/EUR contract on Testnet
[2016-02-23 01:09:36] jung1 : habibi: mroź wóde
[2016-02-23 01:09:44] habibi : śnisz dalej :D?
[2016-02-23 01:10:52] jung1 : normalnie
[2016-02-23 01:11:27] habibi : myślalem ze wolisz świeżą amnestie haze albo lemon haze :p
[2016-02-23 01:11:51] jung1 : *susz śmieszki
[2016-02-23 01:12:09] jung1 : ty tam masz spoko bo blisko czech
[2016-02-23 01:12:18] habibi : swieza czyli prosto z cofika akurat, kolega z btc swiata wysyla
[2016-02-23 01:12:29] jung1 : ja sie musze wchuj nalatać zeby cos spoko ogarnac
[2016-02-23 01:13:24] lockhedge : habibi: what does "lemon haze" mean in english? ;)
[2016-02-23 01:13:38] habibi : u mean in polish? :p
[2016-02-23 01:13:48] jung1 : its actually english name of weed
[2016-02-23 01:16:56] lockhedge : jung1: it would have been more funny if "lemon haze" would be the polish word for e.g. friendly policeman
[2016-02-23 01:17:40] habibi : lockhedge: first lesson of polish for u: try to read: Tea who you yeah bunny
[2016-02-23 01:17:55] jung1 : polish policmens arent friendly at all
[2016-02-23 01:17:59] Gtime7 : sleger: I think when dark listed on finex there was a pump that went on for a couple of months. Am i wrong about that?
[2016-02-23 01:18:08] habibi : Gtime7: yeaaars
[2016-02-23 01:18:09] habibi : lel
[2016-02-23 01:18:34] jung1 : Gtime7: yeah
[2016-02-23 01:18:35] lockhedge : jung1: dutch are more much friendly
[2016-02-23 01:19:03] jung1 : you cant get a ticket in poland if you are not cross street on zebra